US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

[JadeHare]

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

Im sure he’s been told he’s just too stupid to understand

he said before he only reads the first line of Irans proposals and then decides
So clear he only listens to the first line of what people tell him

There is bit of a theme going

Analysis of Satellite Image and Videos Suggest Precision U.S. Strikes on Iranian Water Facility
It is unclear if the U.S. intentionally struck the facility or knew what it was. Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime.

www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/precision-strike-iran-water.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

The type of bomb used based on fragments at the site is a GBU-39

The Irish Times

‘ What is the GBU-39?
The GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb is a 113.4kg precision-guided aerial bomb produced and deployed by the US. It is launched by aircraft and is GPS assisted to enable it to glide towards its target

The US Central Command said in a post on X that it had conducted attacks near the strait on Wednesday “with precision munitions from US Air Force and Navy fighter jets”.

The attack has cut off water to more than 20,000 civilians

So they admit their attacks are precision based and in so doing they hit civilian infrastructure

Has Donald got his T’s right? It’s Thursday, not Tuesday.

From the BBC:

Trump cancels scheduled strikes on Iran todaypublished at 20:32
20:32BREAKING
US President Donald Trump has just posted on Truth Social:
Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.
Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.
The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.
DONALD J. TRUMP

TACO Thursday still works,

Perhaps the Iranians hit some sensitive equipment over the last couple of days. After all a lot of US bases were targeted or perhaps the Military has told Trump no. Larry Johnson and other commenters already said that the Americans lost a sensitive asset in Bahrain.

The other countries complaining about Iran can literally shut up, most of them stood by whilst International law was being shredded in Gaza and Lebanon, too late now, this is the wild no rules landscape they ushered in, no take backs now.

Iran has been unilaterally attacked twice three times during peaceful negotiations, with the offensive in February started by double tapping a school and murdering 168 children in Minab.

Unfortunately, Lavrov was prescient when he said a couple of years ago that America is agreement incapable.

People & countries won’t “shut up” about countries breaking international law. It is always noted whether done by the US, Israel or Iran.

Trump on Iran: “There could be a signing over the weekend in Europe.

“I won't be able to be there, but JD Vance will be there.”

(the UFC fight is Sunday)

Trump: "The strait is open. But the straits have been open for a number of months already and you just didn't know about it."

I am sure he said the US closed the Strait only yesterday 🤔

From the FT -

US intelligence assessments reported in American media have suggested that Iran still retains roughly 70 per cent of its mobile launchers and approximately 70 per cent of its pre-war missile stockpile"
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Sky News

US and Iran 'nearing peace agreement around next week's G7 meeting'

The US and Iran are nearing a peace agreement around next week's G7 meeting, Bloomberg News has reported.

Senior officials told the outlet that an Iranian official had indicated overnight that a deal was likely.

Another G7 official said this would likely be the widely discussed memorandum of understanding - as opposed to a final deal.

The summit is taking place in Evian, in the French Alps, with nearby Geneva, Switzerland, reportedly being considered as a possible signing location.
The official told Bloomberg that there had been no confirmation from Iran yet, however.

The Guardian

’ Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency has published a list of terms that are reportedly in the draft memorandum of understanding with the US. It cites a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, but the details have not been confirmed publicly by either Tehran or Washington. The report says the text is yet to be finalised by the Iranian leadership.
According to the report, the draft includes 14 points:

• Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• The US’s “commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs” and respect for its sovereignty.
• Lifting of US naval blockadewithin 30 days.
• Withdrawal of US forces from around Iran.
• Reopening the strait of Hormuz within 30 days “with Iranian arrangements”.
• Suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil.
• US and allies to draw up reconstruction plans for Iran “worth at least $300bn”.
• Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement “based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of” sanctions.
• Reiterating Iran’s commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.
• During the negotiations, the US will not increase its forces in the region or impose new sanctions.
• Release $24bn in blocked Iranian funds.
• Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
• Final agreement to be approved by a UN security council resolution.
• The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. “Discussions about Iran’s missile programme and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda.”

Israel has previously said it would continue its ground operation in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreed in April which has all but collapsed. The Israeli military has taken over swathes of the country as it attempts to dismantle Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful armed proxy in the region. Reports on the ongoing discussions to end the war suggest a potential deal between the US and Iran hinges on what happens with Israel’s war in Lebanon, with Hezbollah demanding the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the country

Last night an Iranian official said despite Trumps claim for a likely signing this weekend there wasn't yet an agreement
Perhaps things have moved on in the last few hours

Latest TRUTH attached.

It's all FAKE news. ALL OF IT. He says.

And he appears to be putting the blame for the Indian ship on Iran ? After US CENTCOM admitted it ?

He says a lot of stuff about a lot of stuff all the time, though, doesn't he? And the veracity is, say, not precisely empirically encouraging!

What seems to have happened here is: the US and Israel started a war that had been war gamed out a gazillion times and had extremely well known risks, thought the aforementioned didn't apply to them and ... strategically albeit not technically militarily lost it.

I recently found a C-SPAN clip from literally 1983 - that would have been the embryonic stage of the then so-called "tanker wars" and around the time my own parents were falling in love - in which the question of Hormuz was put to a young and upcoming at the time British journalist by the name of Christopher Hitchens.

The mind boggles!

.Updates on the ‘ memorandum of understanding ‘ for the ceasefire

‘ If nuclear talks falter in 60-day negotiation period, provision allows for ceasefire extension

By Mohamed Vall AlJazeera
Reporting from Tehran, Iran,

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi basically confirmed that this paper is now on the table here in Tehran, that it is being discussed by the highest leaders in the country.

He referred to some kind of disagreement about it in the Supreme National Security Council in particular, but he did not indicate that it is something that is going to obstruct Iranian approval of it.

So, it’s going to take a bit of time. No confirmation of when and where it is going to be signed.

He said it might be signed in a first phase, it might be signed electronically, remotely, and then there will be a meeting between the two sides to put their signatures on paper.

The first phase will include a ceasefire across the board, on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and a commitment not to commit aggression – a mutual commitment between the warring parties.

And, it is not clear if Israel is included in that commitment, but understandably, the Americans are representing the Israelis in this discussion.

There will also be a process or a mechanism to start the unfreezing of Iranian assets.

That’s key to the Iranians, and there will be, essentially and most importantly, a lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is during the first phase.

During the second phase, the most important and the strongest point of disagreement, the nuclear file, will be discussed in the next 60 days.

If no resolution is concluded in those 60 days – with some satisfaction with how it is proceeding – then the warring parties might extend the ceasefire to give more chance for peace talks.’

Israel Katz, the defence minister of Israel, which has not been part of the US-Iran talks, said his country “will not withdraw” from Lebanon, Syria or Gaza

I believe it will all hinge on Israel’s willingness to stop attacks on Lebanon and withdraw
There’s a ceasefire in Gaza yet Israel are still bombing so can they really be trusted to stop and withdraw from Lebanon ?

The BBC note that Israel is not involved in the talks which are meant to lead to an extension of the ceasefire and the start of negotiations on key issues, including Iran's nuclear programme.

In a detailed briefing with journalists on Friday afternoon, US officials said the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in return for the US lifting its blockade on Iranian shipping.

Those steps would come into effect more or less immediately. This would be followed by a 60-day period of negotiation - focusing on Iran's enriched uranium - an essential ingredient to make a nuclear bomb. Officials said that this would result in all that material being destroyed on site and then removed from the country, though the precise mechanism for doing so is still to be worked out.

On the economic side, officials stressed there would be no money provided up-front - an apparent rejection of earlier Iranian news reports suggesting some Iranian assets would be unfrozen before substantial negotiations had begun.

Instead, US officials said, there would be a staged reintegration of Iran into the global economy, with measures such as the lifting of sanctions and the potential unfreezing of assets happening incrementally.

The deal calls on Iran to stop funding proxy groups in the region - a reference to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies across the Middle East.

The US officials emphasised that the MOU was not based on trust or promises, but on "performance" - Iran would only receive economic benefits when it could be verified it had implemented measures it had committed to.

www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39y02x98k8o

Regarding the SOH, according to CNN:

US officials have outlined several of the points laid out in the memorandum of understanding, including a complete reopening of the strait and lifting of a US blockade on Iranian ports along the strait.
Araghchi said that, under the agreement, the waterway would not return to how it operated before the war.
He added that the regime would not charge tolls but “service fees” for transiting the strait.

Note how it has changed from "peace deal" to "memorandum of understanding",

Change in language is interesting. Maybe realising a peace deal isn’t just 2 weeks away.

What is the definition of a ceasefire? When you don’t have senate approval to continue your bombing.

Re money

’ US say there will be no money provided up front ‘.
?

Exclusive: UAE to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, sources say
By Andrew Mills, Marwa Rashad and Ahmad Ghaddar
June 12, 20267:12 PM

REUTERS
Summary
Two sources say at least $10 billion to be unlocked under deal
First $3 billion tranche already sent, sources say
Deal includes revived economic ties, source says
UAE official says Gulf state aims to ease regional tensions
Iran sought similar pact with two other Gulf states, source says
DUBAI/LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, four sources said, in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state during the U.S.-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic.

Good old Donald. From CNN:

President Donald Trump said an agreement with Iran “is scheduled to get signed tomorrow” adding that “immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.”
“At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Am I reading this correctly there Jade

Trump says we are signing the agreement tomorrow
then announces they’ll sneak in and bomb sites in Iran to destroy and collect nuclear ‘dust’

By the sound of it he clearly didn’t get what he wanted out of the deal and he’s throwing his toys out

Im going to have to lower the tone by depicting that image in ChatGPT art form 😵‍💫

I think he's saying that the bombing last June buried the Nuclear dust. Another fantasy fabrication, not that they'll bomb again right now (though don't rule out further bombing uf Trump feels like it again deal or no deal)!

The Telegraph:

Sources told Reuters that the UAE had agreed to a total of $10bn (£7.4bn), with more than $3bn already delivered. Other sources with knowledge of the arrangement say the full sum would reach $20bn.

The UAE has since denied the report, saying that the “allegations are entirely false and unfounded, stressing that no frozen Iranian funds have been released, transferred, or facilitated through the UAE”.

The White House has not directly commented, although JD Vance, the US vice-president, said on Friday that funds would not be released to Iran for signing a deal with the US.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/13/uae-iran-dollars-halting-strikes/

Seems like the UAE sources are disagreeing

The trouble with unnamed “sources” whatever the nationality is we never know how reliable/informed they really are. It seems we should have the details of the actual Memorandum within the next few days anyway. Then again - we’ve thought that before!