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Conflict in the Middle East

US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2

1000 replies

JadeHare · 27/05/2026 17:21

Doesn’t really look like anyone believes that Donald is going to come out of his stupid war with any kind of better deal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/05/26/trump-us-iran-capitulation

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RedTagAlan · 02/06/2026 16:20

Am I correct in thinking that this is an open forum and that anyone can start reading a thread at any point in the thread ?

I could just post that a US aircraft carrier is on fire in the gulf, and leave it at that. Would that be ok ?

We are in the post truth era after all, thanks to Trump. So source of information is rather important. Especially to the thread police who will point out if a poster quotes a from a potentially biased source.

And why are some posters fixated on personal details of other posters ?

RedTagAlan · 02/06/2026 16:39

DrPrunesqualer · 02/06/2026 16:13

The hospital attacked is 12 miles from the Israeli border and south of the Litani river

This from the Guardian in March

‘ Israel says it will occupy swathes of south Lebanon and destroy the homes along the border to prevent the return of about 600,000 residents, prompting concerns of long-term forced displacement.
The defence minister, Israel Katz, said that when fighting with Hezbollah ended, Israel would occupy the area under the Litani River, about 19 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border, as part of its so-called buffer zone inside southern Lebanon’

Any excuses used by Israel that Hezbollah were there is nonsence. Israel have already declared they intend to take the land that the hospital stands on.

Thanks for that Guardian bit. I just watched the news on RTE player, and images of tanks rolling along roads with every building either side reduced to rubble.

It's near incomprehensible to me. Ordered to evac your home by a foreign army, and then they demolish it to rubble.

I see France have called for a UN sec council meeting now though.

I won't post a link for that last bit sorry. It was on RTE player.

TopPocketFind · 02/06/2026 16:55

Reuters

Iran is reviewing a proposed agreement with the U.S. to halt their war but has not communicated with Washington for a few days, Iranian media reported on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations were ongoing.

Twiglets1 · 02/06/2026 16:56

RedTagAlan · 02/06/2026 16:20

Am I correct in thinking that this is an open forum and that anyone can start reading a thread at any point in the thread ?

I could just post that a US aircraft carrier is on fire in the gulf, and leave it at that. Would that be ok ?

We are in the post truth era after all, thanks to Trump. So source of information is rather important. Especially to the thread police who will point out if a poster quotes a from a potentially biased source.

And why are some posters fixated on personal details of other posters ?

I think you are giving Trump too much credit if you think he has single handedly created a "post truth era".

He's not very truthful but still ...he's not that powerful! Think the rise in social media might have had a bigger role than one man, even if he is POTUS.

CNN is as potentially biased as other mainstream sources - they pretty much all have a bias to be aware of.

As for our personal details, I don't pry. We all give away what we want to give away and nothing more.

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 02:58

There is a fair bit going on in the Gulf area this morning, and as we have been talking about the truth here, the story that caught my eye is that the US has disabled a tanker heading towards Itan's Kharg Island.

Per CNN :"The Botswana-flagged M/T Lexie was "transiting international waters towards Kharg Island,” the CENTCOM release said. The ship’s crew “ignored repeated warnings” and did not comply with US orders enforcing a blockade on ships going to and from Iranian ports, it said. A seaport at Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf handles up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports."

That is what the US government says. I bolded this part: "transiting international waters towards Kharg Island,”.

What are international waters ? Well, instead of finding the definition in UNCLOS, here is a clipped quote:

"International waters encompass ocean areas where no state holds sovereign authority. They begin where a country’s territorial claims end and are commonly referred to as the high seas. In these waters, all states enjoy freedoms of navigation, overflight, fishing, laying submarine cables, and scientific research, subject to certain protections and responsibilities under international law."

Source :

What Are International Waters? A Legal Definition – Bridge Legal

International waters are "high seas" as per UNCLOS. And here is a map I clipped from a "Marine regions" map. The high seas are the dark blue/purple area. Way out into the Arabian sea. The are no " international waters" inside the gulf area itself.

So for that Centcom (US government) statement to be true, the tanker would need to have been struck way out in the Arabian sea. And I do not see how that can be the case, because how would they know for sure it was headed to Kharg Island ? Yes AIS, But argument from incredulity warning... Really ? They disable a ship at least 800 miles from it's destination ?

US - Iran Peace agreement Part 2
Twiglets1 · 03/06/2026 05:44

The US military says it has launched "self-defense" strikes on Iran and shot down ballistic missiles and drones fired at ships and Gulf countries.

The strikes on Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz, were "in response to attempted attacks by Iran across the Middle East", US Central Command (Centcom) said.

Iran said it had attacked US bases and helicopters in a "regional country" using missiles and drones in retaliation. Centcom said Tehran had fired two missiles at Kuwait and three at Bahrain, all of which broke apart or were intercepted.

Centcom added the strike on Qeshm Island had targeted an Iranian military ground control station, and that the US military also shot down three attack drones that had been launched by Iran toward "civilian mariners that were rightfully transiting regional waters".

Centcom also said that Iran had launched "several" ballistic missiles towards countries in the region. "Two Iranian missiles fired at Kuwait fell short or broke apart enroute, and three missiles launched at Bahrain were immediately intercepted by US and Bahrain air defense forces."

Iran has repeatedly attacked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, where US military bases are located.

Earlier, Centcom said it has struck and disabled an unladen oil tanker that was sailing towards Iran, as part of Washington's naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which began on 13 April.

A US aircraft fired a Hellfire missile into the engine room of the Botswana-flagged M/T vessel, after its crew "ignored repeated warnings", it said.

Centcom also released a footage purportedly showing the moment the tanker was hit on Tuesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o

Still from a video released by US Central Command purportedly showing the the Botswana-flagged M/T oil tanker

US and Iran launch new strikes as ceasefire negotiations stall

US launches fresh strikes on Iran and an oil tanker as Tehran says it attacked US bases in the Gulf.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o

JadeHare · 03/06/2026 06:02

Marco Rubio:

"The war is over," he said in another tense exchange with a senator, as lawmakers on the committee questioned the US strategy for ending the conflict.

Yeah. Looks like it.

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JadeHare · 03/06/2026 07:35

Aljazeera:

Kuwait’s military says drone and missile strikes that hit a terminal at Kuwait International Airport caused “significant material damage” and injured several people.
Kuwait’s General Civil Aviation Authority also said flights have been suspended and others will be diverted to alternative airports until further notice, the official Kuwait News Agency reported.

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JadeHare · 03/06/2026 07:38

And yet the US maintains they shot them down and they did not hit the intended targets. Who to believe, the Kuwaiti government or the US of A.? 🤔

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GentleSheep · 03/06/2026 16:44

I'm going with believing the Kuwaitis. BBC has video footage, I presume verified. 1 man killed and over 60 injured.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yx135yg53o

BelleHathor · 03/06/2026 16:44

Further on from my earlier post regarding Iran's Nuclear stance, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson has seemingly confirmed that Iran has likely acquired a Nuclear Weapon with the assistance of a 3rd party country.
https://sonar21.com/does-iran-have-a-nuke-well-placed-source-says-yes/

"....received clarification on how Iran has obtained a functioning nuke… The information regarding the construction of this device (or devices) was provided by a third country that does have proven capabilities in this area. Iran’s objective is, with the backing of Pakistan, China and Russia, to raise the risk to Israel of engaging in future attacks on Iran.

The source also provided the following assessment of the consequences of US and Israeli actions on the global security and financial architecture:

The secondary effects of this standoff are rewiring the global strategic and financial architecture in real time:

• The Collapse of the Abraham Accords: The political infrastructure sustaining Israeli-Arab normalization is functionally dead. Pakistan has publicly rejected it, Saudi Arabia has frozen all back-channel discussions, and Qatar and Oman are actively preparing a six-to-nine-month timeline for U.S. forces to vacate their military installations.

• The Emerging Security Axis: A new Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt security architecture is being constructed, completely detached from U.S. backing. Pakistan has elevated itself from a peripheral player to the indispensable operational pivot, leveraging an Islamic cultural proximity that neither Washington nor Beijing can replicate.

• Systemic Risk to the Global Order: An Iranian nuclear demonstration would obliterate the global non-proliferation framework and hand Beijing an unearned, definitive proof-of-concept regarding the limits of American hegemony."

Iran has always had the ability to build a Nuclear Weapon but refrained from doing so due to the late Ayatollah's Fatwa. However, as predicted by many geopolitical experts and reflecting a growing discussion within Iran about obtaining a Nuke to protect themselves, Iran has taken the North Korea path.

It turns out bombing Schools, Hospitals, Critical infrastructure and murdering civilians whilst threatening that "A civilisation will die tonight" whilst "negotiating" isn't the most diplomatic tactic.

Of course this could be deliberate misinformation from his source, however do they or do they not have a weapon will now have to be factored into any military action, it introduces an ambiguity that can't be confirmed until a response.

It's important to note that if this is true, this could not have been achieved without the knowledge of Russia and China, indicating that their stance on the American threat to all 3 countries has changed. It's prescient in light of this tweet from Russian ex-president Dmitriy Medvedev after last Junes striked:

https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1936725544017567860?s=20

"What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran?

1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage.
2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.
3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."

Remember that Russian

Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) on X

What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran? 1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage.

https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1936725544017567860?s=20

GentleSheep · 03/06/2026 16:50

I was watching Pyotr Kurzin interviewing Larry about that subject on YT yesterday. Interesting but I do wonder just how much more work would have to be done on the enriched uranium to get a bomb? Seems to be a grey area that no-one can answer. If they are planning on testing a bomb then it must be fairly advanced? Or is it a bluff?

Twiglets1 · 03/06/2026 16:56

GentleSheep · 03/06/2026 16:50

I was watching Pyotr Kurzin interviewing Larry about that subject on YT yesterday. Interesting but I do wonder just how much more work would have to be done on the enriched uranium to get a bomb? Seems to be a grey area that no-one can answer. If they are planning on testing a bomb then it must be fairly advanced? Or is it a bluff?

I have read that it’s a much smaller step to get from 60% which they already have, to 90% than it was to get to the 60%.

Which is why so many governments are concerned I think and saying Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

Not heard before the opinion that they may already have a nuclear weapon. I find that unlikely personally as they would surely have used it by now against Israel.

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 16:58

An odd one, from CNN a few hours ago :

"US President Donald Trump said he and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, “seem to be getting along quite well” — despite the ayatollah not having been seen in public since the start of the US war in Iran. Asked by the New York Post about the ayatollah’s condition, Trump responded: “I’m not hearing he’s doing great.”

“If you believe the stories, he’s, you know, missing a lot of different parts,” the president said. Khamenei was reported to have been seriously injured in the first salvo of US strikes against Iran that killed his father, Ali Khamenei.

Asked who is making decisions for Iran, Trump responded: “Well, they say he is giving approval because that’s the way it has been for a long, long time. His father and then him, I guess it’s a succession. But we seem to be getting along quite well.”

Trump said he would like to meet the ayatollah at some point."

So he says they “seem to be getting along quite well” . It makes me wonder how his logical processing works. Because he then says “I’m not hearing he’s doing great.”. So what is it. They are getting along well, or he is hearing things about him ? Why is near everything he says is a contradiction?

BelleHathor · 03/06/2026 16:59

Yes, Larry has been doing the rounds, I must have listened to 4 or 5 interviews with him yesterday!

Worth noting that no one is ever ex CIA (or any other intelligence), someone wants this information out there, the question is who and why now?

Could be a bluff, or you can get almost anything on the Black Market for the right price. I've long thought about the chaotic fall of the Soviet Union, were all decommissioned Nukes accounted for or could some poor general set themselves financially for life by selling a weapon or sharing the knowledge of how to make one?

Trump et al opened up a can of worms.

JadeHare · 03/06/2026 17:09

Also from CNN:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubled down Wednesday on his claim that the war with Iran is “over” and said the United States has achieved “victory.”
In a heated exchange with Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs, Rubio was pressed on his assessment that Operation Epic Fury has ended.
“If the war is over, who won?” the California Democrat asked.
Rubio, who would not describe the US military assault as a “war,” said it was a “fact” that the military operation is over.
“We’re no longer conducting sustained strikes inside of Iran to degrade their military, because Epic Fury is over,” he said. “The second point, as on the question of who won, I can tell you this: We define victory. We define victory as destroying their defense industrial base, significantly reducing the number of missile launchers that they possess, significantly reducing their stockpile of drones, and we achieved all those, in addition to destroying what they had left of an air force and wiping out their entire conventional navy.”
“Those are all gone,” he claimed. “So, I consider that victory, and we did, too. And that was the purpose of Epic Fury.”
Rubio was questioned on reported intelligence assessments that Iran is more rapidly reconstituting its military-industrial base than expected, as well as the loss of US service members and the survival of the Iranian regime.
“Does this actually look like winning or losing to you?” Jacobs asked.
Rubio claimed he was not aware of the reported intelligence assessments and argued that “people manipulate intelligence and analysis for purposes of furthering a narrative.” He said the regime was “deeply fractured” and that the Iranian economy is faltering.
“The American people are not stupid, Mr. Secretary. We all know that this war is not over,” Jacobs countered.

Iran news - breaking stories, video and analysis | CNN

View the latest Iran news and videos, including politics news headlines.

https://www.cnn.com/world/middleeast/iran

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GentleSheep · 03/06/2026 17:16

“The American people are not stupid, Mr. Secretary. We all know that this war is not over,” Jacobs countered.

True words!

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 17:22

JadeHare · 03/06/2026 17:09

Also from CNN:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubled down Wednesday on his claim that the war with Iran is “over” and said the United States has achieved “victory.”
In a heated exchange with Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs, Rubio was pressed on his assessment that Operation Epic Fury has ended.
“If the war is over, who won?” the California Democrat asked.
Rubio, who would not describe the US military assault as a “war,” said it was a “fact” that the military operation is over.
“We’re no longer conducting sustained strikes inside of Iran to degrade their military, because Epic Fury is over,” he said. “The second point, as on the question of who won, I can tell you this: We define victory. We define victory as destroying their defense industrial base, significantly reducing the number of missile launchers that they possess, significantly reducing their stockpile of drones, and we achieved all those, in addition to destroying what they had left of an air force and wiping out their entire conventional navy.”
“Those are all gone,” he claimed. “So, I consider that victory, and we did, too. And that was the purpose of Epic Fury.”
Rubio was questioned on reported intelligence assessments that Iran is more rapidly reconstituting its military-industrial base than expected, as well as the loss of US service members and the survival of the Iranian regime.
“Does this actually look like winning or losing to you?” Jacobs asked.
Rubio claimed he was not aware of the reported intelligence assessments and argued that “people manipulate intelligence and analysis for purposes of furthering a narrative.” He said the regime was “deeply fractured” and that the Iranian economy is faltering.
“The American people are not stupid, Mr. Secretary. We all know that this war is not over,” Jacobs countered.

It's as if the current US admin have individual doublespeak generators that are not web linked.

It's a top down system with a difference I suppose. Usually the "Dear Leader" says something that the underlings all discuss and try to translate into something that makes sense. But in this case, the underlings are not talking to each other, so they all come out with different translations. And as a bonus in this version, as the individual underlings are telling people what their translation is, "Dear Leader", is off saying something totally different and contradictory to what he said an hour ago.

Does that make sense ?

JadeHare · 03/06/2026 17:31

Does that make sense ?

Far more sense than Trump ever will.

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BelleHathor · 03/06/2026 17:34

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 17:22

It's as if the current US admin have individual doublespeak generators that are not web linked.

It's a top down system with a difference I suppose. Usually the "Dear Leader" says something that the underlings all discuss and try to translate into something that makes sense. But in this case, the underlings are not talking to each other, so they all come out with different translations. And as a bonus in this version, as the individual underlings are telling people what their translation is, "Dear Leader", is off saying something totally different and contradictory to what he said an hour ago.

Does that make sense ?

Perfect sense, in that their behaviour makes no logical sense at all. It's as if they think that their electorate (and the frankly the rest of the World) exist in some of bubble where we get all our information from them and no one else.

I will say though, according to the Republican lawyer Robert Barnes, who has worked as Trump's lawyer, Trump's erratic behaviour is down to his cognitive decline and confabulation of facts, Trump really does believe that he has spoken to the new Ayatollah and many other outrageous things he has said. The White House is aware and there are vultures (Rubio, Graham) using this to manipulate Trump instead of getting him help.

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Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPdeT4kf0HU

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 17:54

BelleHathor · 03/06/2026 17:34

Perfect sense, in that their behaviour makes no logical sense at all. It's as if they think that their electorate (and the frankly the rest of the World) exist in some of bubble where we get all our information from them and no one else.

I will say though, according to the Republican lawyer Robert Barnes, who has worked as Trump's lawyer, Trump's erratic behaviour is down to his cognitive decline and confabulation of facts, Trump really does believe that he has spoken to the new Ayatollah and many other outrageous things he has said. The White House is aware and there are vultures (Rubio, Graham) using this to manipulate Trump instead of getting him help.

Edited

It reminds me of Covid, and when Xi said the new PRC policy was "Dynamic Zero Covid".

But what happened is Xi did not explain what it was. He just declared it to be the policy.

And then it got fascinating. Because the provincial leaders did not seem to know what it was. There was nothing coming out of central government. And top down systems mean all the underlings have to please the leader. Getting it wrong could be very bad. So near every provincial leader came up with a slightly different version of what it was.

Xi stayed silent.

Then months later, Xi just picked the provincial leaders that had the best results, and said, " Well done, you know exactly what Dynamic Zero Covid is".

I get the impression Trump is trying to emulate that sort of top down system. Get them competing, then pick the best and claim it as yours.

But Trump can't wait for any result. He loses interest in anything almost instantly.

BelleHathor · 03/06/2026 18:27

RedTagAlan · 03/06/2026 17:54

It reminds me of Covid, and when Xi said the new PRC policy was "Dynamic Zero Covid".

But what happened is Xi did not explain what it was. He just declared it to be the policy.

And then it got fascinating. Because the provincial leaders did not seem to know what it was. There was nothing coming out of central government. And top down systems mean all the underlings have to please the leader. Getting it wrong could be very bad. So near every provincial leader came up with a slightly different version of what it was.

Xi stayed silent.

Then months later, Xi just picked the provincial leaders that had the best results, and said, " Well done, you know exactly what Dynamic Zero Covid is".

I get the impression Trump is trying to emulate that sort of top down system. Get them competing, then pick the best and claim it as yours.

But Trump can't wait for any result. He loses interest in anything almost instantly.

But Trump can't wait for any result. He loses interest in anything almost instantly.

Scream that from the rooftops, I know toddlers with more patience than Trump.

In trying to make sense of his erratic behaviour I even went down the Astrology rabbit hole, lets just say Gemini Sun with a Leo Rising:

https://www.astrologerpsychologer.com/celebrity-charts/donald-trump-chart-of-a-performance-artist

The combination of Trump’s Sun and Moon in Mutable signs Gemini and Sagittarius make him a natural salesman, but with no planets in Earth signs to ground him, he lives in something of a fantasy world, easily forgetting (or just not caring) to return favors, keep promises or stay true to his word.

And with Uranus in Gemini at the top of his chart opposite his Sagittarius Moon, his moods are erratic and he’s remarkably untethered and frivolous in his words and actions, unafraid of alienating (or even deliberately threatening) whoever he sees as an enemy or obstacle.

Bold moves and big promises are integral aspects of Trump’s persona; but it’s clear from his birth chart that this isn’t some cultivated facade—it’s who he is at his most basic level. This kind of affectation without artifice can be incredibly appealing at first; but the best actors are those willing to commit to their performances. And whether Trump believes what he says or not, he commits to his performances.

Misdirection is a key component of his strategy, consistently eluding accountability through denial, deflecting blame onto others, or simply talking about anything else rather than answering a question he doesn’t like. Either way, admitting wrongdoing is anathema to him.

p.s. I have been teasing all by Gemini friends about their famous sign twin 😅;-)

Astrologer Psychologer | New York Astrologer Alyssa Landers

Astrology of former President Donald J. Trump's natal chart, born June 14, 1946.

https://www.astrologerpsychologer.com/celebrity-charts/donald-trump-chart-of-a-performance-artist

DrPrunesqualer · 03/06/2026 18:51

From Jades CNN post
Rubio said

’ people manipulate intelligence and analysis for purposes of furthering a narrative.”

yes they do don’t they Rubio 😉

JadeHare · 03/06/2026 19:04

Channel 4 news live from Tehran. Wow!

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JadeHare · 03/06/2026 19:32

Wonder when the world’s journalists are going to be let into Gaza?

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