Can the ceasefire hold?

[Alantraitor]

Hamas has only returned 9 out of the 28 bodies it agreed to return as part of the ceasefire agreement. The Israel government has threatened to reduce the promised aid supplies to Gaza in retaliation. Hamas have announced that it can't find the bodies of any more Israelis hostages, which has made some people question the future of the ceasefire.

Israel’s defence minister threatened on Wednesday to resume fighting if Hamas does not honour the continuing terms of the deal. On a more optimistic note however, the BBC reports that in a call with reporters last night, senior US advisers were downplaying the risk. The advisers said there was "understanding" to get all the live hostages, which Hamas did "honour".

We have a "mechanism in place", and are working with mediators to get as many bodies "as possible" out, they explained and, "We continue to hear from them that they intend to honour the deal."

Hamas says that specialist equipment will be required to find and retrieve the bodies of the other hostages and they are working with other countries to achieve this. Turkey, for example is in talks to send experts on body retrieval.

The BBC states that According to those advisers, the US government does not so far believe Hamas has broken the agreement by not yet retrieving the remains of remaining deceased hostages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckgzndpnjl1t

I would be surprised if the bodies clinch it asxsuggested by the noises coming from the Americans. I imagine it depends on how honestly and transparently Hamas deal with this issue alongside the knottier problem of moving to the next phases of the deal. If Hamas piss about with the issue of the bodies it may indicate that they are going to do so on every other issue in which case the deal collapses. But I don't have any inside information, and neither does anyone else here.

Yes I think as long as the US is making encouraging noises about the peace deal holding, it's a bit irrelevant what Katz says. Seems that the ceasefire is safe for now because the bigger issue was the live hostages being released.

Hamas disarming or not is likely to be a bigger issue.

Israel signed up to the peace agreement knowing full well that not all bodies might be recovered, certainly not quickly anyway. That's why there's a mechanism for dealing with this situation within the agreement.

You can't give what you don't have. It's not like Hamas are using this as a negotiation point, ie 'you can have them back if', They're saying they haven't got them and to have a hope of finding them will need specialist equipment which they haven't got.

It's sad but it's disproportionate for this to reignite the war. History would not look kindly on Israel for resuming a genocide, resuming the slaughter of children in the hope that of returning the bodies of the already dead. And if Hamas haven't got them, it doesn't matter how much you bomb them, you won't get them back.

This was always a risk of the agreement, and it should have been mitigated by the specific provisions about not finding bodies. But Israel don't want to stick to the terms of the agreement. Was this the plan from the start?

Sometimes remains are not recovered, it's sad but that's war and terrorism sometimes. The remains of over a thousand people at 9/11 were never identified. Millions from the world wars. WW2, 2.5-3 million died who were not recovered and identified on the allied soldiers side alone. Civilians who were killed and not recovered/identified were far greater.

You don't resume a war over the return of 19 bodies that may or may not be recoverable from rubble, unless you're just looking for an excuse to do so.

@Alittlefeedbackwouldbenice the issue is that Israel were led to believe more of the dead hostages would be able to be retrieved by the set date than only 9 out of 28.

Israel won’t be resuming the war over it but it is a bit of a red flag re how honestly Hamas are intending to negotiate with all the other parts of the ceasefire agreement such as disarming.

Were they or was that an assumption? Certainly, nothing that I'm aware of was publicly revealed about the numbers anticipated, and were not privy to the private discussions.

Both sides have red flags. The release of detainees from Israel did not go in accordance with the agreement. Israel changed their mind on some individuals, and others they deported to Gaza rather than westbank effectively exiling them from their families. Again, in breach of the agreement. Then there's the killing of unarmed individuals that crossed an unidentified line, when there's nothing in the agreement (at least the public version) to say, individuals cannot cross into that part of Gaza. The IDF control beyond the yellow line, but there's nothing to say that all Gazans have to be behind it. Then there's further restricting humanitarian aid as a punishment for Hamas. Legally and morally very questionable.

But focusing on the bigger issues right now is I think what needs to happen. And that means focusing on the realistic, the achievable and the living rather than the dead.

Israel are more than reasonable. Yes they’ll be pissed off Hamas have been lying, or maybe they fully expected not to get all the bodies back, but needed to appease the Israelis.
In any case, there is no chance the war restarts over missing bodies. It’s a long game now.

As per usual, everything hangs on Hamas, and that was never promising.

Israel has already broken the ceasefire.

At least 9 killed on 14th October

https://www.commondreams.org/news/israel-violates-ceasefire

Just watched the documentary Killing Roads. OMFG! No wonder Israelis were so angry. Shocking, probably the most shocking documentary I’ve watched.

Whereas other less biased reports say the people crossed the yellow line and would not retreat when warning shots were fired in their direction.

These "less biased sources" being... the army that killed them.

Those killed were going back to their homes. The yellow line isn't anything physical, it is simply an arbitrary line drawn on a map In the customary colonial tradition. There is no way for Palestinians in Gaza to tell which side they are on.

On the basis of public discourse and news analysis in Israel, it seems very, very unlikely that the war will resume any time soon, and certainly not over the return of hostage bodies. Ignore verbal threats by the defence minister - this is the Middle East and he's just doing his job. Look instead at what is actually going on. There are very clear signs that things are heading in a different direction now. The population in Israel will not support a resumption of the war at this point and as far as public mood is concerned, it has ended. Bibi has pivoted his language and is chasing diplomatic successes in order to cement his next election campaign. The army is hinting at the formal steps to formally end the state of war. The test will be keeping the momentum for phase 2 of the deal so that the withdrawal can continue.

Come on ... they can see the military are gathered at a certain point they have retreated to can't they?

They can hear the military shouting at them not to come closer.

Treating them like they are stupid doesn't help. They still get shot if they do stupid things.

What sort of things did it cover for those who haven't seen it?

Stupid things like walking, unarmed through the territory?

Stupid things like walking towards armed soldiers who you know have retreated towards a certain line and who are calling at you not to come any closer.

@Alantraitorthe start of hamas killing civilians on the road leading to Egypt. Shooting and killing and burning those civilians. Then it moves onto the killing, rapes and burning of young Israelis at the music festival. It shows footage of the murders both from Israeli mobile filming and Hamas filming their killings and rapes. It’s pretty horrendous.

That’s great and sounds viable.

Does it cover the apache helicopter attacks, the IDF tanks firing at the Kibbutz and the IDF shooting at those who left the Nova festival?

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231030-report-7-october-testimonies-strikes-major-blow-to-israeli-narrative/

Does it explain why the warnings from Egypt and others were ignored and why a stand down over was issued?

https://www.thecanary.co/skwawkbox/2025/09/25/7-october-israeli-troops/

What a nasty post - using the Israeli civilians killed by "friendly fire" in the chaos of 7/10 as another stick to hit Israel with.

But we know it wasn't "friendly fire" in "chaos", but a deliberate invoking of a long standing israeli protocol called the Hannibal directive by Yoav Gallant, who admitted to it in Feb this year.

We know, do we? From what I’ve heard they are disputed allegations.

Don’t blame the victims of October 7th. So awful.

From your source:

New first-hand accounts from witnesses of Israel’s clashes with Hamas militants on 7 October suggest that, in their desperation to contain the surprise incursion, Israeli troops indiscriminately fired on their own citizens with heavy weaponry, resulting in potentially scores of Israeli deaths from so-called “friendly fire”.

Look I’m not Jewish, I’m not Israeli, I don’t side with Gaza. I just watched a documentary where young girls and young men were being murdered , raped and burned and watched their mothers and fathers cry. It was horrendous. As a human it makes me ashamed.

😓