Can the ceasefire hold?

[Alantraitor]

Hamas has only returned 9 out of the 28 bodies it agreed to return as part of the ceasefire agreement. The Israel government has threatened to reduce the promised aid supplies to Gaza in retaliation. Hamas have announced that it can't find the bodies of any more Israelis hostages, which has made some people question the future of the ceasefire.

Israel’s defence minister threatened on Wednesday to resume fighting if Hamas does not honour the continuing terms of the deal. On a more optimistic note however, the BBC reports that in a call with reporters last night, senior US advisers were downplaying the risk. The advisers said there was "understanding" to get all the live hostages, which Hamas did "honour".

We have a "mechanism in place", and are working with mediators to get as many bodies "as possible" out, they explained and, "We continue to hear from them that they intend to honour the deal."

Hamas says that specialist equipment will be required to find and retrieve the bodies of the other hostages and they are working with other countries to achieve this. Turkey, for example is in talks to send experts on body retrieval.

The BBC states that According to those advisers, the US government does not so far believe Hamas has broken the agreement by not yet retrieving the remains of remaining deceased hostages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckgzndpnjl1t

Well that’s good news !
hopefully there will be something to identify what they are too

Oh is that going to be the next excuse? That people didn't know what the line of yellow concrete markers with Israeli tanks beyond it meant?

What’s wrong with making sure everyone is fully aware what’s going on

Wouldn’t we all want that if it saves lives

A marker saying ‘this is the agreed line etc etc. as per the ceasefire agreement …. should do the job.

I think a long line of concrete yellow markers and Israeli tanks say it best.

Which is fine.
You do you

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2kpx7yyq9pt

Sadly it seems Israel are now carrying out air strikes in Gaza

I just don’t think bodies of hostages could be returned in the agreed timeframe. It was always inevitable that many would be lost under mountains of rubble. They weren’t being stored in a modern clinical mortuary.

They will be in shallow graves which are now going to be mostly inaccessible under mountains of rubble or in collapsed tunnels that have been destroyed by ariel bombardments. I just don’t think it was ever going to be a realistic timeframe in those circumstances.

And now as expected, because bodies can not realistically be returned in such a short timeframe with no infrastructure or diggers to locate them, we have the inevitable breakdown of ceasefire.

I just don’t see this part of the agreement was a task Hamas we’re ever going to be able to complete in the agreed terms. It was always going to take far longer to locate the bodies still buried in Gaza.

Everyone needs to stop shooting and bombing, at least until we actually know what happened here.

The IDF say Hamas fired on them. Hamas deny this. Israel reports no injuries from their side, and a yet to provide any evidence that they were fired upon, or by whom. The way I see it, there are several possibilities:

1. It was exactly as the IDF said and it was Hamas in a deliberate breach of ceasefire. They may have done, but normally Hamas like to claim responsibility for stuff, so it would be unusual for them.
2. It was Hamas fighters 'going rogue', ie, the organisation has not breached the ceasefire, put a couple of fighters have, acting independently.
3. it was another militant group.
4. It was another militant group acting on orders from Israel, given that elements within the government clearly want the war to resume. This fits that no Israeli were actually injured and there's no 'proof' in terms of dead Hamas either, when the IDF shot back.
5. it was a disgruntled citizens acting independently
6. it didn't happen in the way alleged (unlikely as it IDF shot first at Hamas, Hamas would undoubtedly say this)
7. it didn't happen at all.

I'm not going to guess which of the 6 it is, frankly it could be any of them equally IMO. However, unless and until there is evidence of (1) then it doesn't feel right to launch air strikes, ban aid, and basically reignite the war. Even if it is (1), there needs to be a sense of proportionality given the almost daily breaches by Israel (including bombing a bus clearly full of kids), to try and find a peaceful way ahead.

The fact that Israel have launched a large number of strikes with zero evidence of the breach, apart from the say so of the IDF, is deeply concerning.

The question of whether the ceasefire will hold seems much more likely to be No after today's events.

The Israeli military has just put out another update on strikes in the Gaza Strip.
Here is their statement in full:

Over the past few hours, in response to the blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement earlier today (Sunday), the IDF struck dozens of Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip.
The targets struck included, weapons storage facilities, infrastructure used for terrorist activity, firing posts, terrorist cells, and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.
The IDF also struck and dismantled six kilometers of underground terrorist infrastructure, using over 120 munitions. The underground site was used by the terrorist organization to advance attacks against the State of Israel.
The Hamas terrorist organization blatantly violated the ceasefire agreement this morning.
The IDF will continue to respond firmly and will operate to eliminate any threat to the State of Israel.

At least 13 Palestinians were killed in a new wave of Israeli air strikes across central Gaza, including Yahya al-Mabhouh, the commander of Hamas’s elite unit in the Jabalia Battalion, according to medical and local sources.

Most of those killed in the al-Zawaida strike were members of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades, reportedly meeting inside the tent when it was hit. Among them was al-Mabhouh, a senior field commander in Hamas’s elite forces.

How did the IDF know which tent to target and when the group was meeting? Wonder if they had inside information.

Thanks OP
from the other side ( as you’ve posted Israel’s )

Hamas meanwhile have stated they are committed to the ceasefire
Deny all
and
Israel has offered up no evidence of anything other than the say so of the IDF, Aparently

Where is the evidence
because at the moment there is none. So why believe anyone

Given how Hamas are behaving towards fellow Palestinians this is positive news then.

Ffs. “Suspends aid delivery” immediately! Israel can never now deny that they starve civilians as a weapon of war.

So Israel have their people back
They start bombing and now they’ve stopped all aid

Netanyahu has broken
another ceasefire !!! Let’s not forget the last one!

Anyone whose followed this for a while can’t be surprised
Im not

He’s an absolute war mongering bastard

I’m reading on sky news that two Israeli soldiers have been killed. Can anyone verify this please?

The IDF have reported this
It’s on louds of news channels if you Google.
The first news piece I can see was over an hour ago in The Times of Israel

In terms of verifying it though no. It hasn’t been
Maybe someone else has seen some verification.

Lots of Palestinians including children have been killed by the IDF since the ceasefire
All verified

Verified by whom, all I can find is claims from Gazas Health ministry

Israeli army says it killed Palestinians in northern Gaza
The Israeli army says it shot and killed several Palestinians in the Shujayea neighbourhood

• At least 97 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli attacks across Gaza since the start of the latest ceasefire on October 10.
• At least 24 bodies and 74 wounded people were brought to al-Awda Hospital in northern Gaza in the last 24 hours.
• Two Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli army in Gaza City.

Gaza officials say Israeli attacks have killed at least 97 Palestinians since the ceasefire came into effect on October 10

At least 24 bodies and 74 wounded people were brought to al-Awda Hospital in the last 24 hours, ( as of this morning ) sources there told Al Jazeera.
Israeli air raids hit multiple areas across Gaza yesterday:
At least 42 people were killed across the territory, the worst violence since a ceasefire was declared on October 10.

Israeli forces targeted a displaced people’s tent in the Nuseirat refugee camp, killing six Palestinians.

Six others were killed in an attack on a group of civilians in northern Gaza, according to the Palestinian Civil Defence.

Israeli forces also attacked parts of southern Gaza, including Rafah.

Trump has stated the ceasefire still holds

Time to reconsider the IDFs presence in Gaza to maintain a ceasefire.

UN peace keeping force would be a far better solution in terms of keeping Palestinians safe from being killed by the IDF
Trump did say 200 US military would be sent to support the ceasefire but not be in Gaza itself.

That’s clearly not working if indeed they have arrived at all

Would a UN peace keepers do it? Going up against Hamas could be very dangerous.

Wishful thinking really

Israel has blocked the UN from aid distribution
With the US supporting Israel they could block the UN from being a peacekeeping force .

What can the UN do?
The UN has a principle called the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). It means countries must protect their populations from genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity – and, if they can’t or won’t, then the international community should step in.

The UN also has the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. Both have made clear that the situation in Gaza could amount to genocide. Arrest warrants have been requested. Orders have been made.
So yes – there are mechanisms. They’re just not being used fully. Why?
What’s stopping it?

1. The Security Council

This is the small group of 15 countries that can authorise real action – like sanctions or peacekeeping missions. Five of them are permanent members and they can veto anything they don’t like. The US is one of them. So are Russia and China. So when it comes to Gaza, where the US is a key ally of Israel, it just takes one veto to block any intervention, even if the rest of the world supports it.

1. Funding and influence

America is also the biggest financial contributor to the UN. That gives it influence – quietly or otherwise. If the UN pushes too hard, it risks losing the support and funding it needs to keep running basic programs like food aid, refugee services and peacekeeping missions. It’s a bit like relying on your landlord for rent – and then trying to report them for abuse. There’s a built-in conflict of interest.

1. No enforcement power

Even when the ICJ or ICC makes a ruling, they can’t enforce it. There’s no UN army. Arrest warrants depend on member states to act – and most are too afraid, too cautious, or too politically compromised to follow through. So what can the UN do right now?

the UN still has options:

• The General Assembly(which includes all UN member states) can use something called the “Uniting for Peace" resolution to get around the Security Council. It’s not legally binding, but it does carry political weight – and could build international pressure to act.
• Member countries can form independent coalitions to intervene or investigate, even without Security Council approval. It’s risky, but it’s been done before – like in Kosovo.

The UN needs more than just reform. It needs to stop protecting the powerful at the expense of the vulnerable. It needs to ask, who is this system really serving?
Maybe it’s time to rethink who gets a seat at the table. Maybe the countries living through war and displacement should have more say than those funding arms or blocking action?

I just ignore anything Hamas says because they are a terrorist organisation.

There is lots of visual evidence & testimony from local people that Hamas are running amok at the moment in Gaza. In the last 5 days of the ceasefire they have executed over 100 Palestinians alone & some commenters warn there’s a risk of civil war in Gaza. So it would be surprising if they weren’t also seeing how far they can push the IDF.

@Alantraitor ’In the last 5 days of the ceasefire they have executed over 100 Palestinians’

So it appears Hamas are on the genocide path against Palestinian civilians?

They are asserting their dominance over rival gangs.

Which Palestinians have guns? Hamas and their rival gang members.