Can the ceasefire hold?

[Alantraitor]

Hamas has only returned 9 out of the 28 bodies it agreed to return as part of the ceasefire agreement. The Israel government has threatened to reduce the promised aid supplies to Gaza in retaliation. Hamas have announced that it can't find the bodies of any more Israelis hostages, which has made some people question the future of the ceasefire.

Israel’s defence minister threatened on Wednesday to resume fighting if Hamas does not honour the continuing terms of the deal. On a more optimistic note however, the BBC reports that in a call with reporters last night, senior US advisers were downplaying the risk. The advisers said there was "understanding" to get all the live hostages, which Hamas did "honour".

We have a "mechanism in place", and are working with mediators to get as many bodies "as possible" out, they explained and, "We continue to hear from them that they intend to honour the deal."

Hamas says that specialist equipment will be required to find and retrieve the bodies of the other hostages and they are working with other countries to achieve this. Turkey, for example is in talks to send experts on body retrieval.

The BBC states that According to those advisers, the US government does not so far believe Hamas has broken the agreement by not yet retrieving the remains of remaining deceased hostages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckgzndpnjl1t

100 hardly constitutes genocide. 67,000 on the other hand….

Genocide is not numbers.

Really?!?

I could say the same to you!

Why? I haven't made a ridiculous statement like yours?

Try looking up what genocide means. It is not just numbers.

🙄

I agree it's not just numbers. That goes both ways though given Israel have killed more Gazans during the 'ceasefire' than Hamas have. I guess Israel are continuing their genocide.

Well obviously not.

Well Israel are still strangling aid, allowing in far less than they agreed, starvation is still rife, foreign journalists are still banned, kids are still being shot, and Israel have currently annexed more than half the territory and are shooting anyone who dares enter that half of the land, in contravention of international law and the peace agreement.

Quite a few untruths in there in amongst the facts. Yes, Israel is still not allowing unlimited aid into Gaza but there is no evidence that “starvation is rife”. If you said there is a lot of malnutrition in Gaza I would not contest this could well be true, especially amongst the most vulnerable. But have we seen pictures of lots of starving people in Gaza to justify it being described as “rife”? No we haven’t.

The IDF are not allowing Gazans to cross the yellow line they retreated to but the concept of the yellow line was agreed by both sides at the ceasefire. They have helpfully put solid boulders in place now to clearly mark out the line (including a “no man’s land buffer zone) so hopefully that will prevent anyone from unwittingly cross into territory that is currently forbidden for them to enter in phase 1.

1. it's not just not 'unlimited aid', they are restricting it to an extent that Israel is breaching the ceasefire.
2. hunger has not reduced - https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251023-no-reduction-in-gaza-hunger-since-truce-who
3. the area behind the yellow line was to be under Israel's control for now. Yes, that's within the ceasefire. But that's different from it being the exclusive territory of Israel. It's about governance and control, not population. There is nothing in the 'peace deal' which says Gazans are prohibited from accessing half of the land.
4. Israel is further taking even more land but having a 'buffer' zone of 200-500m, which is in the Gazan side of the yellow line. Who knows why they couldn't have had it their side, given that all there is in their 55% is soldier, compared with the 2m people squished into the 45%. If they want a buffer, that's their choice.

@Alittlefeedbackwouldbenice sorry but I think people were being naïve if they thought that Gazans would be able to walk/drive into the land behind the "yellow line" agreed by the ceasefire.

What if they are suicide bombers? What if they have weapons to attack the IDF? Due to the fact that Hamas don't wear uniforms in most cases, the IDF can't assume that any adult is not Hamas.

I agree with you that the buffer zone shouldn't necessarily have been on the Gazan side as it could have been on either side. Although I probably could have guessed that it would be on the Gazan side due to the fact that the details were drawn up by the US who are all ally to Israel. Also, the IDF were the superior army compared to Hamas at the time of the ceasefire, and the strongest army at the end of a war normally gets to dictate more things.

As usual, 7th October completely forgotten, not to mention Hamas's MO. Of course Israel won't let random people wander across the yellow line. Not dissimilar to a militarised border anywhere.

Agree. It just doesn't happen at militarised borders that people are free to wander in and out as they want.

Maybe people who find this strange have never seen militarised borders in other counties but it is common that the boundaries are respected. In the case of Gaza the boundary should change as both sides proceed to phase 2 of the peace plan.

Exactly. I've been to countries with contested and therefore militarised borders, I've lived through several coups. The forces are there to keep control and that is what they will do. People are ridiculous.

It turns out that the actual yellow blocks set out inside Gaza by the IDF in order to make an IDF-occupied buffer section - a potential ‘kill-zone’ which no Palestinians must enter -
are not where the yellow line was supposed to be according to the ceasefire/peace agreement. The reasons seem unclear.

The Israeli military is exerting control over more of Gaza than expected from the ceasefire deal with Hamas, a BBC Verify analysis has found.

Under the first stage of the deal, Israel agreed to retreat to a boundary running along the north, south and east of Gaza. The divide was marked by a yellow line on maps released by the military and has become known as the "Yellow Line".

But new videos and satellite images show that markers placed by Israeli troops in two areas to mark the divide have been positioned hundreds of metres deeper inside the strip than the expected withdrawal line.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz - who instructed troops to place the yellow blocks as markers - warned that anyone crossing the line "will be met with fire". There have already been at least two deadly incidents near the boundary line.……(continued)
BBC Verify 23rd October
www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2y00g4x29o

The reasons are not unclear.

There is a "no man's land" buffer zone which is not Gazan territory or the territory of the IDF, as explained in the post above yours. This is what the yellow blocks are marking. The buffer zone could have been on on the Gazan side
or the side of the IDF, but it is common to have a buffer zone as BBC Verify must know.

And as I also said in the post above yours, "I agree with you that the buffer zone shouldn't necessarily have been on the Gazan side as it could have been on either side". But not altogether surprising if you look at which side holds more power.

Thank you for explaining the reason.

As I understood it from the article, the IDF -controlled buffer-zone marked with yellow blocks in reality, takes up a more extensive area of Gaza than the IDF -controlled buffer zone as it was outlined in the ceasefire/peace plan, and shown as a yellow line on the map.

Are you saying this new, un -preagreed area, marked with yellow blocks, and extending the area well beyond the map’s yellow line buffer-zone (which, being the greater power, the IDF has in both
cases new and original, taken from Gaza rather than Israel) is truly a no man’s land - neither Israeli or Gazan?

If this is the case why are the laid out blocks yellow as though to denote an Israeli border, and with no other blocks showing the original yellow line of the map? How is it clear where the no man’s land (neither Israeli nor Gazan) ends and the Israeli kill zone begins?

If the extension taken by Israel really is a patch of no man’s land, would it be true that neither an Israeli soldier nor a Hamas terrorist would have the right to shoot or detain anyone who steps into this no-man’s land ( so long as they don’t cross over further into the actual IDF zone, or actual Gaza zone)?

Thank you for explaining the reason.

As I understood it from the article, the IDF -controlled buffer-zone marked with yellow blocks in reality, takes up a more extensive area of Gaza than the IDF -controlled buffer zone as it was outlined in the ceasefire/peace plan, and shown as a yellow line on the map.

Are you saying this new, un -preagreed area, marked with yellow blocks, and extending the area well beyond the map’s yellow line buffer-zone (which, being the greater power, the IDF has in both
cases new and original, taken from Gaza rather than Israel) is truly a no man’s land - neither Israeli or Gazan?

If this is the case why are the laid out blocks yellow as though to denote an Israeli border, and with no other blocks showing the original yellow line of the map? How is it clear where the no man’s land (neither Israeli nor Gazan) ends and the Israeli kill zone begins?

If the extension taken by Israel really is a patch of no man’s land, would it be true that neither an Israeli soldier nor a Hamas terrorist would have the right to shoot or detain anyone who steps into this no-man’s land ( so long as they don’t cross over further into the actual IDF zone, or actual Gaza zone)?

BBC article 23 October
New images show Israeli control line deeper into Gaza than expected ( ie 520 metres )

Multiple analysts who spoke to BBC Verify suggested that the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF personnel. One expert said the move would be consistent with a long-term "strategic culture" which seeks to insulate Israel from nearby territories it does not fully control.
"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets," Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College London, said.
"Potential targets can be engaged before they reach the IDF perimeter. It is a bit like no man's land that does not belong to anyone – and Israel tends to take that territory from the opponent's chunk not its own."

Three experts who spoke to BBC Verify suggested that the disparity between the markers and the IDF map was an intentional design to warn civilians they are "approaching an area of increased risk".
Noam Ostfeld, an analyst with the risk consultancy Sibylline, said that some blocks "seem to be positioned near roads or walls, making them easier to spot".
But a post to X by the Israeli defense minister seemed to suggest that the yellow blocks marked the actual line, warning that "any violation or attempt to cross the line will be met with fire".

There is already confusion among Gazans over areas where it is safe to go.

Abdel Qader Ayman Bakr, who lives near the temporary boundary in the eastern part of Gaza City's Shejaiya district, told the BBC that, despite promises from Israel of clear markings, he had seen none put in place.
"Each day, we can see Israeli military vehicles and soldiers at a relatively close distance, yet we have no way of knowing whether we are in what is considered a 'safe zone' or 'an active danger zone'," he said.

Meanwhile, the legal status of the boundary has also been questioned.
"Israel's obligations under the law of armed conflict do not cease even for those breaching the Yellow Line," said Dr Lawrence Hill-Cawthorne, professor of Public International Law at the University of Bristol.
"It can only target enemy fighters or those directly participating in hostilities, and in so doing it must not cause excessive civilian harm."

I’m not aware there was a buffer zone shown in the ceasefire plan @ScrollingLeaves

Nevertheless, the IDF have set out a buffer zone - rightly or wrongly. I don’t know any more about that than you really.

Thanks, maybe I used the wrong word.

What I meant by buffer-zone was the sectioned-off part of Gaza, which the IDF withdrew to, which is now occupied by them, of which the border is marked by a yellow line on a map as part of the ceasefire, and behind which which no Palestinians must enter.

It is the unofficial Israeli extension of this area, now marked with some yellow blocks , which I understood you to be describing as an additional buffer zone and no-man’s land. I suspect this additional land will be Israeli controlled however.

The Palestinians in Gaza have little space to move without danger of wandering into the territory Israel has occupied.

Apparently they are now dumping masses of debris onto the Gaza side too.( Read in Haaretz).

Anyway, it is all confusing.

It is confusing. I believe the land is split approximately 50/50 at the moment but the IDF will withdraw further when both sides move into phase 2.

Actually it was 55:45 to Israel and then Israel took several hundred metres extra as a buffer before the yellow line so have taken the majority of Gaza. Under orders from Katz they are demolishing the remaining buildings in Israel controlled territories which many believe signals that they are getting that land ready for settlers and do not intend to return it.