War Hezbollah and Israel

[EasterIssland]

News seem to indicate a war between Israel and Hezbollah seems imminent , hopefully they’re wrong

Biden has said they’ll support Israel and several ships are on their way to support Israel

from what I’ve read , hezbollah has got more and stronger weapons than Hamas in Gaza

I can only think about how many innocent civilians are going to die because incompetent politicians and many times men.

I also think tbh Palestinian militants have made an utter hash of every single thing they’ve touched, yup Jordan, Lebanon, that civil war was horrendous, kuwait.

People keep acting like if Israel stops fighting then everything will be fine. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to cast a critical eye on any military or militia group but In this situation Israel categorically did not attack Hamas or Hezbollah. That is a statement of fact.

If you think this is somehow the only option available did you not think the arabs could cope with a diplomatic solution? Hamas are a lot of things but they are not stupid. They are not demanding a 2 state solution because they don’t want one. They thought 7th October would lead to a mass uprising that would destroy Israel. The aim in not just liberation for Palestinians (which I would wholeheartedly support, they should be able to live peacefully in their own country with their own borders) it is the destruction of Israel.

It is insane to basically lay everything at the door of Israel, it’s managed to make peace with Jordan and Egypt and it would with Lebanon too if Hezbollah allowed it. I completely agree there are probably parts of Israeli society who also don’t want a 2 state solution but what other option is there.

You know that the exact same thing will happen again in a few years. I don’t know what people expect it to do, yelling at Israel about a ceasefire is not going to do anything if Hamas and Hezbollah don’t also refuse to put down arms. Dismantling the blockade will just result in further attacks on Israel not fewer with Hamas in charge.

Well yes this is the problem, Hezbollah launched an attack on Israel before it had lifted a finger and has carried on doing so. Nasrallah has outright refused to stop bombing Israel. So Israels choice is to continue to allow displacement/death of it’s civilians or to retaliate. What other option is there.

Iran is wandering around saying it’s totally open to re-opening nuclear talks. I assume the subtext is, re-open talks and we’ll tell Hezbollah to stop bombing Israel.

I mean it's interesting that the Lebanese FM said that America is the one that can stop Hezbollah from firing rockets from Lebanese territory. Surely, in any normal situation, that would be the job of the Lebanese army? Why didn't they stop all of Hezbollah's actions within their sovereign territory if they are so concerned? Of course, we all know because it's a puppet state of Iran via Syria but would be good to actually have them speak the truth.

I'm guess Lebanon has no control over his iwn terrorists within its own country, they don't appear to want to stop them firing rockets and just moan when Israel hit back 🙄. Seriously some of these countries what do they expect. They could negotiate peace, they don't appear to want it whilst their terrorist arm continues.

Yes you'd expect the Lebanese army to stop the terrorist organisation 🤔

Yes, pretty awful at everything except bringing problems to their own people.

Yeah, tbf to the Lebanese Hezbollah has form for murdering people who disagree with them. The Lebanese army is not well equipped and would probably get crushed in an all out conflict with Hezbollah. A series of mistakes made a long time ago have resulted in Hezbollah being pretty entrenched in. Lebanon. They are basically a criminal gang.

I think the PM knows that Hezbollah aren’t going to stop until Iran tells them too and Iran are only going to tell them too to avoid a loss to themselves or to gain something.

Exactly. Focus on the final objective and look at how that can be acheived. What can and should Israel do differently? What can and should the other actors do differently? I truly believe that Israel won't have peace until there is a proper functional Palestinian state and that it is in Israel's long term interest as much as the Palestinians.

How do we get there? Has 7/10 helped achieve this? What are the steps that need to be taken? How can we get on that process?

And, given the topic, is Hizballah helping any? (big fat no)

I think a lot of people do support Israel, in that they support their right to exist as a country, which is the bottom line here.

I also don't think they can kill their way to peace; but they have a real dilemma as to what to do in the face of persistent attacks from malicious neighbours (armed by Iran) who are committed to end the existence of Israel if they possibly can. Peace would require cooperation from Hamas and Hezbollah.

For once I agree with you. There won’t be peace in Israel until there is a functioning government in Palestine. But I also think that it has to be respected by the Israel government (and citizens) and with no involvement from Israel. Sadly, this is not what nentanhayu who has already suggested Israel will be involved in the future of Gaza

Spokesperson on Al Jazerra really angry that 'Hezbollah has dragged Lebanese people into the war'. Very angry. Naturally upset that the Lebanese people who have been let down by their government now have this to contend with.

The Lebanese army and its leadership should try to take its country back from terrorists.

It would be great if there could be an independent democracy in Gaza, committed to peace and determined to foster good relations with Israel.

Seems unlikely to happen all by itself, however.

How do you think that would work?

Do you think the current Israeli government would respect and foster good relations with this future Gaza?

unfortunately . It seems quite unlikely

The Lebanese army and its leadership should try to take its country back from terrorists.

They have no where near the military might as Hezbollah you are proposing effectively civil war. The situation is desperate but civil war in Lebanon is definitely not a solution. We've discussed this already on the thread I felt it was like cuckooing on a massive scale.

Well, Israel is a democracy, and it would be quite possible to vote out Netanyahu and put a more moderate leader in his place. That is at least possible.

It is hard to imagine a smooth transition to moderate government in Gaza; it is hard to see how that could happen at all without help from Israel, in fact. No one else seems very keen to get involved, apart from Iran arming Hamas etc etc. There is also some precedent for liberals from Israel trying to help with the infrastructure, I understand.

Presumably, Israel would need to stay involved? how else would this work?

Personally Israel should only get involved as a neighbour but have no say/involvement at all in Palestine. We’ve seen time after time that they don’t respect Palestinians.

Israel needs security guarantees, and they'll need to be even more iron clad after what's happened in Lebanon and Gaza since it's demonstrated to Israel what happens when it doesn't control an area - it becomes a launching pad to attack Israel. And of course Israel has to be involved in a future Palestinian State. Not least because it is physically in between Gaza and the West Bank. Back in the day (before the 2nd initifada), there was a plan for a safe corridor through israel to link the two. Then there is Jerusalem and the future of the Palestinian East Jerusalem residents who do not want to give up their Israeli residency status. Somehow the city will need to be shared and that requires involvement of one another.

The immediate future of Gaza of course has to involve Israel but hopefully for not too long. There's a UAE plan for some kind of peacekeepers. Hopefully with more power than UNIFIL which has stood aside as Hezbollah has accumulated more weapons and missiles than many countries and fired at Israel with impunity.

And who cares if Netanyahu respects it? It's meaningless. No Palestinian state is happening while he is PM so you can forget about him. However, Israelis need to be shown that a Palestinian state is in their best interests and the West Bank won't be Gaza 2.0. You can demonstrate and pass resolutions and jump and down as much as you want, but Israelis will not vote for something which they see as suicidal. And if Israelis aren't convinced that there won't be another 7/10, future Israeli governments will be just as right wing or even more so and there'll be no Palestinian state or peace process, just "management of the conflict".

Too weak or they'd have done so years ago. Too much Iranian control through Syria.

There's lots of anger among Lebanese people, they know what's what. I saw a video of Hezbollah men entering a Druze village in southern Lebanon. They were greeted with anger and a near-lynching and were forced out fo the village.

I saw another video of Sunni Muslim Syrians in Lebanon celebrating what was happening to Hezbollah because of the slaughter they carried out around Homs when they were fighting for Assad. No love lost for Israel but they hate Hezbollah even more.

That'd be lovely. Is there an Arab country in the region you think would be a good example to base this on? Any thriving liberal democracies?

The future of Gaza does not need Israel involved. Israel needs to focus on its priority and leave Palestine alone or to third party independent organisations but it def does not need Israel involved.

EasterIsland - the problem is that he Palestinians fought a civil war in Gaza involving loads of summary executions, people being pushed off high buildings etc,=. This causes Israel to suspect that their would be a power contest between a "Kill the Jews" party vs a "Kill the Jews now" party (compared to, eg, a social democratic party versus a slightly more conservative growth orientated party) . This is relevant to Israel given that they share a border.

Can someone explain the relationship s between Sunni, Shia, and Christian Lebanese and how this frames any debate about how the Lebanese react to this war?

It was interesting to see the view point that Hezbollah is not liked by many in Lebanon for good reason. There was a 15 year civil war in Lebanon would a sustained campaign against Hizbollah prompt a power vacuum and another war?

It seems like the Lebanese government is incredibly weak.

Not sure I understand you but Palestinians need to feel they’re free from the country that has been land grabbing / stopping their aid , bombing and killing their relatives and friends. Would you trust someone that has destroyed your whole life ? Israel needs to focus on Israel not on managing Gaza and leave other organisations to do this work.

i.e. I believe Israel citizens last week or week before where throwing Palestinians off roofs. They’ve also been executing Palestinians. Two things don’t make one right but it’s a reason why Israel needs to get its hands off anything related with Palestine.

I was trying to explore Easter Island's vision of an independent Gaza forging ahead into the twenty first century, with no involvement from Israel. What would that look like, do we think?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/25/israel-hezbollah-beirut-tel-aviv-lebanon-cross-border-conflict-expands?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Extremely worrying tines this surely can't end well for anyone in the region