War Hezbollah and Israel

[EasterIssland]

News seem to indicate a war between Israel and Hezbollah seems imminent , hopefully they’re wrong

Biden has said they’ll support Israel and several ships are on their way to support Israel

from what I’ve read , hezbollah has got more and stronger weapons than Hamas in Gaza

I can only think about how many innocent civilians are going to die because incompetent politicians and many times men.

Very easy to sneer at Palestinians ho ho ho. Meanwhile the Israeli government, for all its lauded democracy, is run by a bunch of far-right lunatics.

Remind me how many times the racist Netanyahu has been voted into power.

I don't think many of the posters who are very critical have a clue about Gaza prior to the war. Go take a look at how many universities and hospitals have been bombed, that should give you a clue. Go and see the literacy rate of the Palestinians prior to the war.

Ground invasion reportedly imminent.

It's interesting to note that Lebanon is not quite a state in the accepted sense of the word. Its own military is weaker than.a powerful militia which is effectively it's own governance. The government is torn by a complex sectarianism.
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I think an invasion of Lebanon would highlight the insecurity in the country and highlight the government is holding on by a thread

I think the main thing is where are the rocket sites of Hizbollah and how deep into Lebanon do Israel need to go in order to destroy them?

Is it definite? The last I read there was efforts for de-escalation still taking place although looking very slim unfortunately. What a mess.

Palestine according to you is not a state

lebanon is not quite a state

can you tell me what a state looks like ?

All international organisations are requesting for a full war not to go ahead.

but we know nentanhayu doesn’t listen so unfortunately it’ll go ahead

https://cufi.org/issue/hezbollah-and-the-persecution-of-christians-in-lebanon/#:~:text=The%20prime%20culprit%20in%20all,Iran%2Dbacked%20terrorist%20army%20Hezbollah.&text=Hezbollah's%20disastrous%20influence%20in%20Lebanon,live%20in%20fear%20of%20persecution.

It's interesting because I think Israel has to think how it doesn't target or inflict collateral damage on those that are against Hizbollah and not necessarily against Israel.

An invasion could spark civil unrest with unknown consequences

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/25/israel-hezbollah-beirut-tel-aviv-lebanon-cross-border-conflict-expands

they’ve not finished with hamas a year after and are planning on taking down a terrorist group which is bigger and better prepared ?

U.S. preparing plan for temporary Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/biden-israel-lebanon-fighting-pause-plan

They’ve no managed to get a ceasefire in Gaza and they’re going to get one in Lebanon?

It's interesting because I think Israel has to think how it doesn't target or inflict collateral damage on those that are against Hizbollah and not necessarily against Israel.

What does this sentence mean? Israel needs to be careful about which innocent civilians it kills?

I personally feel real fear on how far this could escalate and which other countries would get involved so I am still hoping for a diplomatic resolution. Surely that would be in the best interests of both sides.

Well, I'm not sneering (though maybe you are). I just think it unlikely that there could be a fully independent state in Gaza in the very near future. No sneering. It is more likely that it will need support, and that could be from a liberal non-Netanyahu Israel, in a scenario where the very existence of Israel was accepted by its neighbours and wasn't being attacked all the time by the proxies of Iran.

I wonder whether it would prove more possible to rein in the West Bank settlers in a situation where there was that much more stability as well.

I guess we can only hope.

What's likely to happen is what the Israeli Govt wants, going on previous proceedings.
They want to continue bombing it under the guise of destroying Hamas whilst almost completely degrading Gaza.
They will reduce the territory and will have thinned the population out. At some point they will pull back but remain in control ie military presence and continue with targeted intelligence led attacks.
Israel will control all the borders, everything going in and out and they are building a road along the Philadelphi Corridor as I type.
Any rebuilding will be done at a snail's pace and most likely paid for by anyone other than Israel.
After maybe a year they might consider letting an independent body in.

That's what Gaza has to look forward to and no doubt many of them like the young girl I heard interviewed (if the Israelis haven't killed her yet) said will leave and never come back.

And Israel can live happily ever after.

Well with the billions of aid spent on them I'd think so.

Shame the taxes raised by hamas weren't also spent on betterment of the country 😕

I doubt they would leave. Where wd they go, we've seen other Arab countries surrounding them reluctant to provide help for potential refugees. Surely if you were going then the best time would be during the war not when it's ended and things will improve again.

Actually I think the more informed posters are aware of what Gaza was like before this round of fighting. The people that seem ill informed are those who refer to it as an open air prison, brought to its knees by Israel/Egypt's blockade etc and paint it in such negative ways as a way to attack Israel. I've always thought this was basically infantilising the Palestinians and an odd approach from people who claim to support them. As ever, the picture is more complex, despite the many hardships of the Palestinoan people.

Things won’t improve for a long time after the war ends. There will be famine and lack of hospitals , schools etc.

Silence 1 wrote
" What's likely to happen is what the Israeli Govt wants, going on previous proceedings.
They want to continue bombing it under the guise of destroying Hamas whilst almost completely degrading Gaza.
They will reduce the territory and will have thinned the population out. At some point they will pull back but remain in control ie military presence and continue with targeted intelligence led attacks.
Israel will control all the borders, everything going in and out and they are building a road along the Philadelphi Corridor as I type.
Any rebuilding will be done at a snail's pace and most likely paid for by anyone other than Israel.
After maybe a year they might consider letting an independent body in.
That's what Gaza has to look forward to and no doubt many of them like the young girl I heard interviewed (if the Israelis haven't killed her yet) said will leave and never come back.
And Israel can live happily ever after."

That's a very grim prediction, but I fear you are likely to be pretty close to what what will actually happen.

@SharonEllis I don't have the energy for an argument and I don't agree with everything, neither is it the thread for it, but yes, can agree on it is complex.

@YoYoYoYo12345 The ones that can leave have left. The girl was in a piece about young people of Gaza who after what they have lived through, at the hands of Israel, see no hope and nothing left for them.
The thought of living under direct total Israeli control must be terrifying after what they experienced.

A link from 2019 from UN that includes experts’ quotes from years before where they define Gaza as an open air prison

https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Palestine-2019-panels-13Nov-low-res.pdf

oxfam reporting the side effects of Israeli blockage

https://www.oxfam.org/en/timeline-humanitarian-impact-gaza-blockade

we are not infantilising Palestinians. We are not attacking Israel. We are stating the truth.

Im agreeing with @Parkingt111 above that gazans had universities, hospitals and other perfectly normal things that the simplistic idea of an 'open air prison' obscures, which does the Palestinians a disservice.

No, they will not manage to get a ceasefire. From Lebanese journalists based in South Lebanon they see this as a type of psychological warfare to try and sow discord between Hezbollah and Hamas, by making Hamas believe that the Lebanese have abandoned them and are negotiating.

Again America is not acting in good faith and is acting on behalf of Netanyahu who has made untenable demands that were communicated to Hezbollah via intermediaries:

1. Surrender of Hezbollah in ALL of southern Lebanon and a withdrawal of soldiers beyond Litani river.

1. Creation of a ‘de-militarised’ 7-km zone in southern Lebanon.

1. Implementation of 1701 UN deal, and the dismemberment of Hezbollah and all other non-state groups in Lebanon.

It's already been rejected.

Netanyahu is working from a point of weakness, Israel lost the last war with Lebanon in 2006 and Hezbollah has been preparing for 18 years for this confrontation.

Yesterday they fired 400 rockets, missiles and drones into Israel including targeting Tel Aviv. Causing so much damage that there is a media blackout. Another potential 250'000 Israelis in the North will likely be displaced.

Netanyahu miscalculated, thinking that killing 500 Lebanese citizens in 1 day would make them turn against Hezbollah, instead Christian Lebanese are opening their churches for Muslims to pray. Many countries in the region have flown in aid and evacuated the wounded. The Syrian government has opened a corridor for civilians to evacuated. Lebanese in the North are offering their homes for the displaced.

The general gist amongst the civilians (excluding the fascist Kataeb Party) is we may have problems between as Lebanese factions, we'll deal.with it later, first we support each other through this.

Prison is a state of confinement or captivity and often used to describe Gaza because the people can not easily leave. Their borders are shut, their passage out is controlled, they have no access to visas or passports. It has been referred to as an open air prison for decades. Life went on though within Gaza but it was not easy to leave or come back to.