What's going to happen to the north of England and Welsh voters who got royally fucked by Brexit and have now voted Reform?

[JacknDiane]

Will they never fucking learn?

Voted for Brexit. Ten years later voted for Reform.

They'll keep chasing that unicorn until they get what they really want, not having to encounter any brown, black or foreign people in their daily lives, it's that simple.

Not entirely true. Councils can choose whether or not to accept people to their area and provide them with housing and other support services.

Some councils have enthusiastically embraced taking in various different demographics of people to be settled in their areas, such as lots of run down seaside resort councils encouraged newly released prisoners to relocate to their towns to occupy the run down empty MHOs converted from old guest houses. They apparently get government funding to do so.

I believe a council close to where I live have made the decision not to accept asylum seekers into their council area, i.e. turned down the financial package "encouraging" them to take in x number of asylum seekers.

So, to an extent, councils DO have discretion, but lots will accept whatever demographics they're encouraged to take for the financial support they'd receive.

I'm hoping this too. My area has a new Reform council, as of yesterday. My sister's area has had one for a year - it's a 'very not funny' joke.

Having had a Reform council and a Reform mayor - not much, even less than they do out of power. Many of the problems my area had well before UKIP was an idea to Farage are still there, down to derelict buildings no council can decide what to do with other than spending money on coming up with another idea and kicking that can down the road.

UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform Party Ltd. have done well in my area by originally being very, very visible. They arrange and dress up for St George's Day and other local events, they organised bulky collection and extra waste collections, part of the park clean-up crew, part of organising the flower displays and so on.

Since being in power, the only thing I've seen them continue is the St George's Day stuff, but they're still more well known than anyone from any other party. They literally campaign on the concept of only voting for people you already know. They're great for a photo op to get their names out there more and very little else. Little else changes beyond businesses coming and going. Certainly not enough of a difference to 'teach' those who vote for them anything.

I’m in the NE and reform has just taken over. I didn’t vote for them but they can’t do any worse than the labour council who did fuck all all these years except let pot holes grow and grow. I’m happy they are out even if it is Reform

It was yourself that intimated that Reform won’t listen to people’s concerns. I presumed you were talking about the leadership, hence the posh London bit. If you weren’t talking about the leadership, who were you talking about? Local councillors? You’re the one making sweeping generalisations about Reform and America. What’s that got to do with local elections?
I find your posts utterly patronising to the people who have voted for Reform in their thousands this week. You’re just chucking anything you’ve got at them because you think you’re better than them.

Nail on the head.

Let's not forget it's exactly how Boris Johnson became so popular in the "Red Wall" seats - because he promised "levelling up" etc., so basically telling the electorate in the run down (often Northern) areas that there'd be improvements to their lives, i.e. more jobs, more funding for public services, etc. Obviously, not of that happened, but it was exactly what appealed to Northern (and other run down regions) voters.

The anti-imigration/racism is a bit of a red herring really. If people in the deprived areas could get decent jobs, if they could get affordable housing, if they could get decent public services, they'd be "happy" and not be clinging on to a vain hope that a dodgy politician like Farage could be their answer.

As you so rightly say, if the Tories/Labour actually improved the run down/deprived regions, Farage and Reform would disappear virtually overnight.

This plus the media and prior govenrment have been telling them for over a decade that the source of all their problems is immigrants, and not the wealthy elite who have the power in the country. It's not really a surprise that some have bought this given the history of racial discrimination in the country.

I imagine (as a non white person) individuals in this group are fairly unpleasant but I do understand how we have got to this situation.

Plaid Cymru is in in Wales but those that did bot Reform did so because under quarter of a century of Labour control the roads are awful, the hospitals are awful, the schools are back to 1980’s levels of awful and local councils cannot care for the elderly properly. There are no decent jobs and everyone feels poor. Meanwhile Labour have been throwing money at Cardiff Airport which is handy for only people in actual Cardiff and neglecting everyone else above the M4.

It's the same here in the leafy south east stock-broker belt, probably worse.
There's one road that looks only fit for a tractor.

But what can Reform do about the ultimate causes of those issues - most prominently an aging population, with the accompanying massive increase in adult social care costs. Councils are being financially crippled by their statutory obligations.

A Reform controlled council can't fix demographic issues and can't change the council's legal duties.

There was a peak in 2015/2016 - but then a similar increase in asylum applications in the EU after Covid (graph in the link);

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240325-1

A major difference between 2015/2016 and now is that EU countries who were previously welcoming to asylum seekers, such as Germany, have taken a much harder line.

there was a duty to prevent crossings

There wasn't a duty to prevent crossings connected to EU membership - our arrangements on border control with France are bilateral.

You do realise that not everyone ‘Up North’ voted for Brexit don’t you?

@JacknDiane , I just got called “a shallow Westerner with no imagination” (I’m neither though I live in “the west” now) by some Russian bot 😂 This site may not be the place for an intelligent discussion about this.

No. Some councils have whole council elections but most do not. Most use voting by thirds and some voting by halves, so there are elections most years as most councils will have a third or half of their seats up for re-election.

Majority of those councils now under no overall control will have another third of their seats up for election next year.

That just isn't reflective of reality. I live in a northern mill town with a higher than average Asian-origin population. There is no discernible difference in the number of unemployed people proportionate to ethnicity.

Likewise with tax payers. When we start demanding the multinational corporations pay proper taxes and we close the loopholes that allow the more wealthy members of society to avoid tax then I'll give more of a shit about the hidden economies and cash in hand work.

From what I've read, many older voters in industrial areas such as South Yorkshire blame the EU in part for industrial decline in the first place.

It was the EU who encouraged the reduction in coal mining/steel production (there was glut of steel on the EU market), the EU who encouraged manufacturers to relocate to Central and Eastern Europe with grants and incentives, plus the promise of a cheaper workforce, the EU who discouraged state aid in the UK with penalties... The EU also encouraged austerity by placing the UK under their excessive deficit procedure after the financial crash in 2008 (ending in 2017) - as well as intervening before the 2010 election by publicly rebuking Gordon Brown for spending too much.

I also believe that South Yorkshire has a large (EU) Roma population which has caused social tensions in the past.

Reform undeniably won lots of votes, it's shocking and Plaid don't have a majority. Don't you think it's important to acknowledge this otherwise it's a bit head in the sand.

And it was an agreement which was implemented as a direct consequence of the Dublin Treaty. It became null and void as a consequence of the UK no longer being in the EU. France literally withdrew their policing and enforcement of migrant crossings by boat and at major ports as they had no obligation to do it any longer. The infrastructure was removed.

Unfortunately, all the pro Reform posts on the local Facebook pages are all saying the same thing about stopping illegal migrants, in spite of other posters pointing out that this isn't something that local councillors deal with.

This is what is happening in South Yorkshire - from the Yorkshire political editor:

Both in Sheffield and Barnsley today Reform UK decided not to speak to us. That means we don’t know who is likely to lead Barnsley Council or what priorities they’ll have when it comes to running the town. To be fair to them they just had a load of new people elected and they need to choose their leader - but voters will want to know pretty quickly what they’re getting for their vote.

The next challenge - as it is for every party - is convincing people you’re up to the job. There will be a lot of new councillors who’ve never done anything like this before. Some will say that’s a good thing, but it’s also a huge commitment. In Doncaster we’ve seen Reform councillor numbers drop already in their first year because of individuals leaving and some being suspended.

It’s one thing winning an election - it’s quite another to run a council.

I agree. This wasn't about immigration in Wales. People are literally dying in hospital corridors, educational outcomes are below the OECD average and the rest of the UK. People want to see real change.

France literally withdrew their policing and enforcement of migrant crossings by boat and at major ports as they had no obligation to do it any longer
The infrastructure was removed

Why have we continued to pay them for nothing?

BBC
2014: £12m over three years
2015: £10m over two years
2016: £17m
2018: £45.5m
2019: £3.25m
2020: £28.1m
2021: £54m
2022: £62.2m

Over 10,000 people arrived by small boat before we left the Dublin Convention.

It was a rhetorical question as I already knew the answer, but it’s good to see it being stated.

There is a spectrum of reform voters you're correct. They dont interview the clever ones though as they are the ones who will make money from this and they do that by turning healthcare into a business and strip back workers rights because it costs them money - basically like Farage. Then there are the people who have been swept up in the 'boats' malarkey, blaming all of their issues on immigrants despite depending on their labour. These are the ones who would never vote tory because they are 'elite' (see poster on first page) and seem unable to grasp that most tories are now reform. Same with a different label. Then there are those who dont want the tories, dont want labour and want to give another party a go. These are usually the voters who regret their vote.
The pain will be felt by the poorest though. After immigrants - they are the next to be blamed for everything. Not because its their fault, but because they have no power.