People not understanding what no deal actually means?

[flashbac]

Do you understand what it means? For food prices, crime enforcement, things that affect you?
Think we can just trade with the rest of the world come January? Easy as that? Do WTO rules ring a bell? Pound crashing?
Or do you think sunlit uplands await you?

I haven't a clue

I keep up with politics but I don't totally know. Will you be illuminating us?

What’s made you so argumentative at this hour?

I imagine most people understand the rough likeihoods. The thing was the two sides disagreed.

I actually don’t really know to be honest but I feel like you’re definitely not the place to get neutral info thanks anyway

They've already nailed their colours to the mast and would rather go down with the ship than admit the whole thing is fucked.

What No Deal means : in a nutshell

The UK is locked out of trading with Europe.

It occurred to me the other day, talking to my older farmer cousins, that part of the reason they were less perturbed by this sort of thing was that it didn't seem particularly worse than lots of bad periods they'd already been through, and they fully expected the country would go through again, because that's just how things are. Not that they think no deal is a great outcome, but they don't think it will mean the end of it all or anything like that. They expect to muddle through one way or another like they always have.

Anyway, I think that somewhat reflects the views of many people.

Combined with a covid winter? No deal means really bad things are going to happen. But even if they get a deal, things will be pretty bad. The time for illusions are over. The reality is about to hit. Pointless lying about it anymore.

Oh, and the Australian deal is bullshit. It's no deal. Australia will even have better trade relations with our biggest trade partners.

We're fucked.

I know that Brexit was a huge mistake and that no deal is an even bigger mistake, but in terms of how it will affect our everyday lives I’m not sure I’m particularly clear yet. I’m not sure how much of that is ignorance and how much is an inability to predict the future though. There will almost certainly be all kinds of impacts we simply haven’t predicted yet.

What No Deal means : in a nutshell The UK is locked out of trading with Europe.

Nonsense. Worst case scenario:

• Planes don't fly.
• Tariffs on exports.
• Customs delays at ports.
• No intelligence and law enforcement co-operation.
• All our trade agreements with countries outside the EU stop (this is happening no matter what).
• Various other bits and pieces.

In practice we already have agreement on the intelligence sharing and air traffic along with most of the detailed stuff so the big problems are trade and customs. Two main effects:

We will have customs barriers with Europe which will mean delays and an increase in prices of fresh food. Possibly food shortages of some things.

60% of our trade is with the EU or countries we had trade agreements with through the EU. We've replaced those 100ish deals with one so far. Any sector which is exposed to imports or exports will suffer.

@raddledoldmisanthropist

What No Deal means : in a nutshell The UK is locked out of trading with Europe.

Nonsense. Worst case scenario:

• Planes don't fly.
• Tariffs on exports.
• Customs delays at ports.
• No intelligence and law enforcement co-operation.
• All our trade agreements with countries outside the EU stop (this is happening no matter what).
• Various other bits and pieces.

In practice we already have agreement on the intelligence sharing and air traffic along with most of the detailed stuff so the big problems are trade and customs. Two main effects:

We will have customs barriers with Europe which will mean delays and an increase in prices of fresh food. Possibly food shortages of some things.

60% of our trade is with the EU or countries we had trade agreements with through the EU. We've replaced those 100ish deals with one so far. Any sector which is exposed to imports or exports will suffer.

Thank you for this sensible and impartial explanation, very useful!

I find stuff like this to be totally anxiety inducing and not sure why people write such things:

Combined with a covid winter? No deal means really bad things are going to happen. But even if they get a deal, things will be pretty bad. The time for illusions are over. The reality is about to hit. Pointless lying about it anymore.

I have an idea but admit I'm not well informed. I find it very worrying indeed that due to the current situation there very little "conversation" about this.

I also feel the government are likely to get away with it and the absolute despair many people in this country are going to face over the next decade will all be blamed on the virus. It is of course true that Covid will have caused some of it but..

The one that keeps making me smile though is the vocal Brexiteer I know who has just bought a place in Spain and can't wait to retire and leave this "shithole" permanently.

Maybe it's me who doesn't get it, but I'm not sure that's possible/easy with no deal?

I'd ask whether people realise the effect EU CAP policy, worth 35% of the budget, has on trade for developing countries like Africa where farmers are unable to sell their produce because the CAP basically prices them out.

I am not an expert by a long way, but we will still be able to trade - obviously we aren't going to suddenly be unable to import and export.
It will just be on worse terms, so higher import and export tariffs, there will probably be customs delays for a while until we get used to the new system.
Some people will probably lose their jobs but equally some new roles will be created.
Life will get more expensive but when doesn't it.
And remember we have farms here, we can and produce our own food. Even on a personal level I've got (for example) 40+ swedes in the garden more than I'll eat this winter I'll swap with friends family who've got a glut of something else.

They don't care,all that matters is that we are out of the EU.

No Deal:
= more expensive goods and services.
= less demand for our goods and services
... you conclude the rest.

@YellowishZebra

I am not an expert by a long way, but we will still be able to trade - obviously we aren't going to suddenly be unable to import and export. It will just be on worse terms, so higher import and export tariffs, there will probably be customs delays for a while until we get used to the new system. Some people will probably lose their jobs but equally some new roles will be created. Life will get more expensive but when doesn't it. And remember we have farms here, we can and produce our own food. Even on a personal level I've got (for example) 40+ swedes in the garden more than I'll eat this winter I'll swap with friends family who've got a glut of something else.

Our own farmers are one of the most worried groups. With the removal of EU standards, they're very concerned they can't compete against cheap imports from elsewhere, so how long will we have our own farms for?

@YellowishZebra

I am not an expert by a long way, but we will still be able to trade - obviously we aren't going to suddenly be unable to import and export. It will just be on worse terms, so higher import and export tariffs, there will probably be customs delays for a while until we get used to the new system. Some people will probably lose their jobs but equally some new roles will be created. Life will get more expensive but when doesn't it. And remember we have farms here, we can and produce our own food. Even on a personal level I've got (for example) 40+ swedes in the garden more than I'll eat this winter I'll swap with friends family who've got a glut of something else.

That's great for you, but not everyone has both a garden and the physical ability to grow their own food.

Plus, you may be able to absorb any ensuing price rises, but many people won't, and for them a rise in food prices will mean going without.

(This post reminded me of that weirdo who suggested people on benefits could live on blackberries)

@YellowishZebra

I am not an expert by a long way, but we will still be able to trade - obviously we aren't going to suddenly be unable to import and export. It will just be on worse terms, so higher import and export tariffs, there will probably be customs delays for a while until we get used to the new system. Some people will probably lose their jobs but equally some new roles will be created. Life will get more expensive but when doesn't it. And remember we have farms here, we can and produce our own food. Even on a personal level I've got (for example) 40+ swedes in the garden more than I'll eat this winter I'll swap with friends family who've got a glut of something else.

Also, we don't produce a great deal of our own food, and never have. we've been relying on imported food for centuries.

I'd ask whether people realise the effect EU CAP policy

Yes. The CAP is much more workable than it was. African countries produce lots of our food we can't grow well (e.g. mange tout) but I agree they face big barriers on food Europe already produces.

That's a political choice (one with environmental benefits). The UK may change policy but we won't be scrapping farm subsidies so that won't change.

@YellowishZebra are you fucking joking? Swapping swedes will see us through the food shortages that No Deal is likely to cause? Bloody hell.

I did all I could do and voted remain. Now we have to hope for the best

"But we've got that Australian type deal!"

Some people have fallen for this line, followed by

"Ha, and you said they couldn't negotiate a deal!"

Little known fact...In no deal, we have less than 2000 EU road haulage licenses of the estimated 33,000 we need just to keep food and medicines being delivered.

Fun times ahead. Just have a small appetite and never get sick...ever.

Most people acknowledged that brexit would bring short term economic pain. This means less resilience to disasters like the pandemic. Now the rare event has occurred, we can either try Brexit In Name Only - to prevent worse economic situation. Or carry on and risk another hit to economy on top of COVID.

Not really sure what we can do about it as govt seem set in their course.
The anti-lockdown people (on economic grounds) say that lockdown costs lives - by this token so will Brexit.

Personally I think that if managed in the right way, lockdown can save lives overall because many (though not all) deaths from lockdown have a longer time course than corona and hospitals being overwhelmed.