to be worried about coronavirus part 3

[peridito]

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

Thanks peridito

Thank you at @peridito.
Here is the newest numbers: 73.335 confirmed cases, 1,873 dead, 12.887 recovered.
IF the numbers are true it looks a little better doesn’t it, it looks like numbers are going to peak soon in China and might decrease after that: gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Thanks for the new thread @peridito

It's not just the flu!

Just got that one out of the way. I'm trying not to be worried but I've prepped as best I can.

It would be a big improvement on the last threads if posters didn't jump in to tell us it's 'only' the elderly and immunocompromised who will be badly affected - if you don't have anyone in either of those categories among your nearest and dearest, please consider those of us who do.

Exactly. I wonder if all people who say “it’s just the elderly“ don’t have parents....

Just checking in. Thanks for the new thread

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Data from China on risk by age plus list of conditions that seem to increase risk. So my husband with asthma and high blood pressure in his 50s....

It's not just the flu!

Obviously it isn't as there's a wide range of viruses. But it's a stupid comment anyway; too many people think the flu is only a very bad cold. Which it isn't, thousands die of flu every year.

I think, though, that the reason why people think this is because coronavirus is a respiratory illness like the flu.

I don't think when people are saying 'it's just the elderly' they mean they don't care about older people. They are just trying to manage their own fear and to assess how badly the population as a whole will be hit in terms of hospital admissions and intensive care needs. Many of us have parents over 80, but we know they are a vulnerable group at any time.

It’s also the tyranny of the majority - that weasel word “most”.

Someone goes on the radio and says “most cases will be mild” or “four in five cases are mild” and people think “oh it’s no big deal then”.

Obviously it isn't as there's a wide range of viruses. But it's a stupid comment anyway; too many people think the flu is only a very bad cold. Which it isn't, thousands die of flu every year.

I agree. I suppose it's people who call a cold the flu, never having actually had the flu.

I don't think when people are saying 'it's just the elderly' they mean they don't care about older people. They are just trying to manage their own fear

They need to manage it more compassionately.

www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2017-05/03/content_29178799.htm

With regards to asthma, where the CFR rates are being reported at 6.5%, it's worth noting that fewer than a third of asthmatics manage their condition in China. At the risk of being hopeful

BTW I talked about Wuhan film director Chang Kai yesterday. He, his sister and his parents died from the virus.
Here is a picture: twitter.com/gaodawei/status/1229434813087531013
He doesn’t look frail and elderly. Same goes for whistleblower Li Weilang or hospital director Liu Zhiming: twitter.com/PDChina/status/1229630573846528000

Li Wenliang (sorry, not Weilang) was born in 1986 according to Wiki: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang

At last I've found the correct reference for the cytokines storm article.

It's from a 2015 paper about flu

But posting here anyway in case of use to anyone

www.nature.com/articles/cmi201574.pdf

@IvyBush123 I read the hospital director was only in his early 50s too. I don't believe for a minute that we're getting the full story, but I'm somewhat reassured that there have been no new reported cases here - no news is good news. I'm trying to look at the number of Chinese cases in the context of an enormous population and am thankful for the draconian containment measures put in place there, especially as our own government seem spectacularly clueless.

Could their deaths be to do with being exposed to the virus a lot? I’ve seen Helen Branswell mention viral load on twitter.

Another point about 6.3% death rate for asthma that is actually 6.3 for chronic respiratory diseases so includes COPD pulmonary hypertension probably CF etc. Mild asthma would likely be a much lower risk than someone with COPD on oxygen.

I'm worried about the secondary infections too. There was a screen shot of a message exchange between a chinese hospital doctor and someone else. He said 30% off people are dropping down dead suddenly - presumably cardiac arrest- and they can't cope with the pneumonia side because there's no treatment, the army were moving 200 people a day out the hospital and they were immediately replaced. We seem to have had very mild reactions to this virus so far, which worries me to think it's been around a month or so longer than reported and china is dealing with the fallout of secondary infections and it could be a virus similar to dengue fever in that respect. Utterly terrifying prospect.

I am concerned about it, but it's hard to know how to react when it's very unclear how high the risk is in this country. The coronavirus hasn't spread in China; it's been well contained, with draconian measures as always, but this is a crisis and if it spread through China it would be terrifying, with such a massive population.

I did get swine flu, which was horrible, though for a shorter time frame than when I've had normal flu. The first day, though, was the worst ever, though, with the possible exception of when I had malaria.

I catch everything going and I have Chronic Fatigue Syndrome following on from when I had a very bad bout of flu that turned into pneumonia nearly a year ago. So I'm one of the vulnerable people. That's why I've been trying to remain positive and not expect the worst case scenario.

And being positive now, it does appear that coronavirus isn't as deadly as was first feared, and people are recovering from it.

I posted this on the first thread and my view hasn't changed. Anyone who isn't worried about this hasn't read enough about it.

The information is definitely out there, videos on insta, analysis on reddit. I think it's hard to take in the potential scale this extrapolate to because with any existential threats the easiest thing to do is pretend it isn't happening.

Normalcy bias in action..

When I look at the numbers each day, I don't feel that we are looking at the number of people infected. It's the number of tests that they are able to administer. And then we've seen that some people test negative and then test positive later anyway.

anyway, after 9 case earlier last week, there are no more case reported so far, does this mean the virus doesn't spread easily?