to be worried about coronavirus part 3

[peridito]

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

Ahmad Amiriabadi Farahani, was quoted in ILNA saying that more than 250 people are in quarantined in the city.

He said the 50 deaths date as far back as Feb. 13. Iran, however, first officially reported cases of the virus and its first deaths on Feb. 19.

More information from Iran

No holly. It's extremely contagious with a high death rate in proportion to the number of people who catch it and it isn't a flu and so we have no treatment. If it spreads widely in the UK it has the potential to completely overwhelm the NHS which will have a knock on effect on all sick people. The world's governments are taking drastic measures to try to contain it. There are around a dozen areas in Italy now in lockdown surrounded by military so that people can't get in and out. It could happen here. Predictions are that if it ultimately affected 60% of the country, whilst many people would have mild symptoms, around half a million UK people could die.

Yes we have no immunity to it and it’s infection rate is high
Thankfully it isn’t bird flu though death rate 60%

It says the death rate is only 2%.

And normal flue is one so its just like a bad bought of flu?

Lots of things I've read seem to indicate it's just like a normal flu virus to the elderly and already ill

Are people here in the UK stockpiling essentials? Not sure if it's at that level yet?

@hollyboba death rate is currently 9% (but likely to level out at about 2%). Death rate for flu is 0.02% Massive difference.

Yes @DonkeyKong2019 see the prepping thread (5)

@Hollyboba unfortunately, there is no vaccine, and therefore, many would be infected at the same time as it is highly contagious. The death rate is lower if there is oxygen and hospital beds available and it would be higher if such beds are unavailable.

Yes we have no immunity to it and it’s infection rate is high
Thankfully it isn’t bird flu though death rate 60%

Yes, bird flu was lethal. Thankfully, it never mutated to passing from human to human, it only ever came from infected birds.

With coronavirus, its mortality rate is much lower but it's far more infectious, so is causing many more deaths worldwide.

For most people it will be a minor illness, but because of that they will be going about their daily lives, thinking it's just another seasonal cold, whilst passing it on to others who are elderly and/or vulnerable.

@Hollyboba
Let's put some numbers to give you some understanding.
Every year, roughly 8.000.000 get the flu in the UK and 10.000 will die. this is a mortality rate of 0.125% quite low.

The COVID-19 has a mortality rate of 2-3%. A LOT higher. To put it into the perspective of the flu, let's take back our 8M sick people . OF these, 160.000 will die vs 10.000

Italy has 212 cases and 4 deaths . However what is worrying is that 20% of all cases are severe to very severe and will need high level medical intervention, some even ICU. Most of the severe cases are elderly or people with prior conditions, but not always. Some are young and fit and even athletes.

Codogno is a town with a population of 15,000. Outbreak does very much look like its centred there still atm.

NEW: Red Cross granted exemption from UN sanctions to help North Korea, says an outbreak of coronavirus in the North could pose a threat to millions of people who are already in need of assistance t.co/GNXEhiNprX

@Hollyboba it sounds like it is 10x more deadly than a random flu.

It will be higher in places with scarce medical facilities but I heard yesterday that UK won't be able to cope with for instance, 1000 hospitalized sufferers. I think one of the reasons is that the affected people stay in hospital for over 3 weeks.

Do not forget at the start of a pandemic if it hits hospitals first the death rate will appear higher than it is, purely because it hits the most vulnerable first.

The deaths we are seeing from South Korea, Italy and the Cruise Ship have all so far been in vulnerable older people.

That's the pattern you want to be looking for. If that changes then its a worry.

I would largely ignore China and Iran for guides at this point. Iran looks like it is much further into an epidemic than its later on (probably started there mid to late Jan) and China isn't reliable in its info. Deaths of young doctors are not necessarily representative of population as a whole either.

If it hits the hospitals quietly first, given the replication rate and the incubation lag, then is there a chance some
these people who die initially, will be dying with the coronavirus rather than necessarily of the coronavirus?

Or, do they not check all deaths for coronavirus in an infected hospital and just those who are symptomatic?

20% of cases in Italy are severe but we do not know how many people have the illness mildly. It is very early days for Italy, so it's likely only the worst affected people are 'in the system'.

Look at South Korea figures - 833 with only 6 critical. Diamond Princess, 391 with 36 critical.

Ignoring Chinese figures is ridiculous, taking them with a pinch of salt, yes... but absolutely crazy to ignore.

On the Diamond Princess there was a patient hospitalised who had not tested positive. (That is not unusual anyway but presumably symptomatic patients would test positive? )

@Onabun Iguess we don't know ages and general health of people on Diamond Princess, apart from general knowledge that majority of them are likely to be retired.

Ignoring Chinese figures is ridiculous, taking them with a pinch of salt, yes... but absolutely crazy to ignore.

Well yes. It's more ignore in terms of trying to assess rates of anything as they've been massaged so heavily.

BREAKING: Iraq reports first case of coronavirus after Iranian student crosses the border t.co/eUoE2b20hL

The diamond princess and how the passengers recover will be a real teller I think, given that there will be a lot of older people in that group. Although cruises are so popular with all ages now, I noticed some on the bus to Arrowe were probably around my age (thirties).

WHO says it no longer uses #pandemic category, but virus still emergency - my latest ⁦*@WHO*⁩ #coronavirus #China #SouthKorea #Iran #Italy t.co/Dx7hgohKYW
From Reuters

On the Diamond Princess there was a patient hospitalised who had not tested positive. (That is not unusual anyway but presumably symptomatic patients would test positive? )

Not necessarily. Because the symptoms of coronavirus are not only symptoms of that illness. They can be symptoms of other illnesses, which are still in existence. But that would make them even more at risk if they do catch CV.

Also, we keep hearing that people often test negative initially and then test positive later.

EN DIRECT - Virus - Le député Eric Ciotti annonce que trois cas suspects ont été repérés dans les Alpes-Maritimes #virus #Coronavirus #italie #france #chine t.co/38o9GhsvX3
3 suspected cases in the Alps

NEW: Italy reports 5th death from coronavirus, an 88-year-old man t.co/eUoE2b20hL