Brexit - what is the point?

[Bearbehind]

Theresa May is blatantly running down the clock in an attempt to force her Withdrawal Agreement through.

An agreeement which is the worst of all world because we are still tied to EU regulations with no seat at the table but it’s worse that our current deal.

If her deal is voted down then the next step is a vote to take ‘no deal’ off the table, which will almost certainly pass.

So what is the actual point at this stage?

What are people hoping will happen?

(MN - please do not banish this to the Brexit Corner - this is the biggest thing to affect the UK in a generation and it’s happening in the next 3 weeks)

There is no point.

This is the biggest ever betrayal by some of the political classes and I will never never forgive them.

Ideally she would revoke and then we start looking at the reasons people voted to Leave - most of them UK Govt fault

Not much point then 😂

X post!

Ideally she would revoke and then we start looking at the reasons people voted to Leave - most of them UK Govt fault

Absolutely.

I’ve not heard a single reason for leaving the EU that we actually couldn’t have addressed whilst still in the EU.

Most notably immigration.

There is no point. It’s the most damaging - and the most ill informed - action taken by this country short of declaring war - and in fact is precipitating something that in other times and circumstances would be an actual civil war.

People realised that blaming the government for all the faults that this country has wouldn't have any effect, so they found someone else to blame.

I’ve not heard a single reason for leaving the EU that we actually couldn’t have addressed whilst still in the EU.

Me either, but the list for new problems that will need solving if we leave is getting bloody long.

There's no point. It's now become clear that all the things the Leave campaign said would benefit ( e.g. the NHS, trade deals) won't and will actually be worse. The only point to doing it as apparently that we said we would so we'll look stupid now if we don't.

There is no point. The politicians (of all parties!) have betrayed the country for their own childish, selfish point scoring.

The idea was we leave without a deal on wto terms and could freely trade world wide set our laws control our borders and our budget. Taking no deal off the table goes against democracy and is a disgrace to what we voted for. Its like saying we voted in the conservatives but labour are at the table in control. They would not allow that so i fail to see how they can do this. Save the 39 billion and leave on 29th like she said we would with or without a deal over 100 times. She also said no deal is better than a bad one and hers is appalling. She wants to keep it that way to try stop brexit because she was camp remain from the start. Whole thing was a waste of time if we do not leave no deal as the deal is not what we asked for and neither is remaining.

The idea was we leave without a deal on wto terms and could freely trade world wide set our laws control our borders and our budget

Could you give us an example of a trade deal we would want to enter into outside the EU that we couldn’t have done inside?

I despair.

Personally I don't see why the fuck we cant stay in and trade with the rest of the world why do we have to capitulate over immigration issues Australia kicked out some people on suspicion of terrorism we couldn't even get rid of fucking hamza hook hand without a fight

I did vote remain by the way I know it doesn't sound like it

This is from an article by Andrew Lillico in the DT. I've copied it below as it's behind the DT paywall:

'It is also unconvincing in that there seems to be a veiled threat that if we do not leave on March 29th we will not leave at all. Let us be clear: there is no chance whatever that the UK will remain as an EU member long-term. Nothing will change that. Holding a 2nd referendum (whatever the result) will not change that. Parliament revoking Article 50 will not change that.

We are not leaving the EU because of the 2016 referendum result. We are leaving the EU because the Eurozone is forming into a much deeper political union (as Emmanuel Macron spelled out yet again earlier this week) and because the UK is not a member of the euro or Schengen and will not participate in an EU treasury, tax harmonisation or an elected EU Presidency, the UK’s current arrangement with the EU simply cannot continue.

Departure was inevitable — that is why we held a referendum, not to decide whether we should leave the EU (since that was certain) but, rather, when (now under our own terms or later when Eurozone political union was more formalised).

The threat that Brexit will be made much “softer” if we do not leave on March 29th is the threat that we will end up with much the same form of “out” that we would have done had we stayed as EU members. Macron spelled out a scheme for the future of the EU in which there was a central core of the EU that entered deep political union (let us refer to that core as the Single European State) and a second tier that followed the laws and regulations set by that core but without being members of it.

Those seeking a “soft Brexit” want the EU to be exactly that sort of rule-taker, to follow EU laws and regulations without having any say in what they are. That is precisely what Remaining in the EU would entail. A “soft Brexit” is just Remain.

Now, we can choose to do that, of course — as we could in 2016. But does anybody really believe that would be sustainable. We are the world’s 5th or 6th largest economy, with world-leading sectors, such as financial services. Other countries copy our regulations in many areas. We boast cutting-edge design and innovation advantages in tomorrow’s new sectors such as AI, green tech, and the commercial exploitation of space. Why would we choose to surrender, indefinitely, our ability to make its own main economic laws? Doesn’t that just seem obviously impossible?

Brexit wasn’t some random piece of good or bad luck. It is a reflection of the long-term choices the EU has made, the ways it has chosen to move away from us.

That is not going to be changed by Philip Hammond or other Parliamentarians voting to “take no deal off the table”, or even by a 2nd referendum choosing Remain.

And a “soft Brexit” whereby the UK accepts its laws being set by others isn’t suddenly going to become a sustainable arrangement because Dominic Grieve or TIG wishes it were so. Brexit is inevitable. Pro-Brexit MPs have nothing to fear except that they might unnecessarily give away parts of UK territory or vast sums of money we do not owe. Vote down May’s deal, and let Destiny do the rest.'

He says it much better than I could. The direction of travel is not where I want to be, and I do not want to be bound to that either.

In short to chop our nose to spite our face.

scary that is just propaganda.

What do you think it actually means?

We are leaders in financial services etc because we are in the EU.

If we lose the frictionless access to that market we’re fucked.

Do you really not understand that?

The idea was we leave without a deal on wto terms and could freely trade world wide set our laws control our borders and our budget

So in the meantime we lose all the trade deals we have currently as they’re with the EU and not Britain.

So in the meantime we lose all the trade deals we have currently as they’re with the EU and not Britain.

Unfortunately Brexit and common sense don't really go together.

And we’ve made such epic twats of ourselves during this process we will be on the back foot with anything we try to negiotate.

Even if you could strongly argue the case for us leaving the EU there is one major reason she should revoke.

Her and her government have well and truly fucked this up so far. Do you really think they are capable of getting good trade deals?

Why did all the brexiteers run for the hills as soon as Leave won the referendum?

In short to chop our nose to spite our face.

I don't know a single person in RL who voted to leave and doesnt have this attitude generally. Brexit has fuck all to do with anything other than petulant folk wanting to flounce off without paying their bill.

To be stupid and xenophobic and take us look like eejits, that's the point.

Departure was inevitable — that is why we held a referendum, not to decide whether we should leave the EU (since that was certain) but, rather, when (now under our own terms or later when Eurozone political union was more formalised).

That's twisting the facts to suit the agenda though. It was never supposed to be held at all. It was an electoral bribe to halt UKIP and was supposed to be dropped as part of a coalition deal. Cameron was caught on the hop and rushed it through to get it over and out of the way.

Oh dear Tricia. I don't know where to start.

"The idea was we leave without a deal on WTO terms" - um, no, Leave campaigners at the time were talking about this being 'the easiest deal in history'. No one was seriously talking about leaving without a deal. In fact, quite a few were talking about a Norway type deal, which would have meant remaining part of the single market. What you are saying is a complete rewrite of history.

"Set our laws, control our borders and our budget" - we always had control of our laws (see the Government's own admission on this - www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-white-paper-uk-parliament-remian-sovereign-eu-membership-referendum-campaign-brussels-article-a7559556.html) and we face a future now as a small trading nation sitting next to a global regulatory superpower, who will set be setting rules we will have to abide by if we want to trade with them, but with no say over setting those rules in our favour (as we have actually done very successful over the last forty years).

We already control our borders. I don't know what you think customs and border officials in every airport and port are doing now if not controlling our borders? We are not within Schengen, and we could have implemented restrictions on free movement had we chosen to within the EU. See www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/41/free-movement-of-workers, in particular: "Migrant workers’ right to reside for more than three months remains subject to certain conditions, which vary depending on the citizen’s status: for EU citizens who are not workers or self-employed, the right of residence depends on their having sufficient resources not to become a burden on the host Member State’s social assistance system, and having sickness insurance." Other countries implement these rules; we chose not to.

Control of our budget - the money that we spend on EU membership is a tiny - I can't emphasise this enough - fraction of government spending. See: www.businessinsider.com/money-uk-eu-budget-contribution-britain-2017-1?r=US&IR=T.

On the other hand, the costs of Brexit are already mounting up. The Institute of Government have estimated that just the government cost of Brexit could be as high as £2 billion. That doesn't include the costs that will be incurred by businesses who will need to comply with the reimposition of customs procedures for trading on WTO terms with the rest of the world. An estimate in this report is that “the administrative burden on UK businesses from additional import and export declarations is £6.5 billion with import declarations accounting for around half of this figure”: www.cips.org/en-GB/supply-management/news/2018/december/hmrc-warns-of-65bn-cost-of-no-deal-brexit/

"Taking no deal off the table goes against democracy and is a disgrace to what we voted for" - this is tied up with your earlier comment. You may have voted for a no deal WTO Brexit, but that's not what all 17.4m leave voters thought they were voting for - a lot thought it would be a soft Brexit where we stayed in the single market. Many Leave voters have also changed their minds. We could well in fact have a majority of the population now against any kind of Brexit and I don't think we have ever had a majority in favour of a no deal WTO Brexit. How is leaving now on that basis democratic? One of the benefits of a people's vote would at least be finding out whether this is still the will of the people.

"Save the 39 billion" - our obligations on this don't go away if there's no deal. Unless we want to start our life as an independently trading nation reneging on our commitments and as an international pariah, seen as an unreliable trading partner.

"No deal is better than a bad deal" - just because Theresa May has repeated a lie doesn't make it true.

"She wants to keep it that way to try stop brexit because she was camp remain from the start." You may have a point here. She has pursued Brexit with contradictory red lines that make it almost impossible to negotiate - simultaneously wanting to leave the single market and customs union but not reinstate a border in Ireland. It remains to be seen whether she's the greatest bluffer in history with an ultimate goal of making Brexit impossible, or is just someone too foolish, blinkered, xenophobic and rigid enough to have backed herself into an impossible corner, but too prideful to back down by revoking. My worry would be she will take us out on no deal. Your worry is she will revoke. Time will tell. The fact that it's impossible to predict what she will do is not a positive thing - it is causing businesses to have to implement their contingency plans, to our cost.