To think that anyone who still believes in a positive Brexit scenario is nuts?

[PukkaLovetea]

I feel v anxious about where our shit shower of a government is leading us. I live in a city which is very pro-Remain (although my dad isn't) but I find it very hard to believe that most Brexiters aren't concerned about how negotiations are going.

Or is this just me, in my bubble?

So cheese becomes luxury expensive luxury.... dairy isn't necessary we can manage without it. And we do have uk based dairy farms so I'm sure we will manage without importing. The other countries get paid for supplying their products to us so if we don't buy it they d9nt get paid. Trade is a 2 way deal

It says that if there is no trade deal and we go to WTO terms

Worth noting that we would have to negotiate to join the WTO and our terms as well, as we are currently a member as part of the EU...

Brexit is going to be a disaster,and fuck knows what will happen on the island of Ireland when we crash out with no deal.

Trade is a 2 way deal

The EU is much, much bigger than the UK. What is a lot to the UK is a tiny amount, proportionally to the EU. It may be a 2 way deal, but it is not equal in any way.

I agree with you @Motheroffourdragons on this. If I thought the government was moving sensibly and with a plan, I can't say I wouldn't grumble but I would accept that we were heading in a direction we could manage. I can't see that.

We have 8 months left

Actually we have 3 months, maybe 5 at a push. October was the deadline for agreement to be reached so there was time to get everything signed off.

YADNBU no consolation that the county types will start complaining when their property prices crash, as will still be the poorest who are hit hardest. Several people I know including god-daughter have already lost jobs or told their companies are moving out of UK.

There's no obvious issue with the UK not imposing tariffs under WTO rules, except: 1) British farmers would end up hugely undercut- WTO rules would mean the U.K. Couldn't say 'we'll allow exactly enough imports to make up the shortfall with what we produce': if they open the doors tariff free then WTO rules they're open to the whole world. This could cripple British dairy farmers 2) the WTO does impose restrictions on the non-tariff subsidies the gov can provide to agriculture so trying to make it up to farmers in other ways would be a big issue 3) there are also issues with controlling quality and standards.

OK, so I think you're confirming that there's no reason dairy prices need to increase, so the given reason is bollocks.

(If British farmers are fucked, presumably that's because non-EU dairy imports will be cheaper, so the consequence of WTO terms is actually cheaper dairy products for consumers, the exact opposite of what the article is saying?)

I think this is just bad reporting, as there is now another thread (breast milk one) linking to a different article with a different set of reasons why dairy might become more expensive, the reasons in that article seemed a bit more plausible. (Though I haven't tried to reconcile them with possibility of us obtaining non-EU dairy products more cheaply.)

Ok, re-reading the article, I have been unfair to it. I just remembered the bit about tariffs, having gone back now and had a quick look, it is much more balanced than that, and does mention other issues that will be a problem even if there are no tariffs.

Yeah there's two issues in the article: increased transport costs and delays are going to happen pretty much regardless, assuming the U.K. doesn't stay in the common market.

Technically you're right that it's a choice to impose tarrifs. But don't underestimate how politically impossible it is for the British government to screw over farmers on that scale. If they put British dairy farmers out of business, they become entirely reliant on imports, with almost no control. Agriculture in the U.K. is on a knife edge as it is- it's not about British farmers losing profits but basic survival. When sterling plummeted after the vote a significant number of Irish mushroom farmers went out of business within a few months: they were export-driven, already at v tight margins due to U.K. supermarkets and couldn't lose 20% from anywhere. British farmers are in a v similar position, reliant on the CAP and v exposed to external shocks.

If the gov doesn't increase tarrifs on dairy, presumably the result will be: 1) large numbers of bankrupt dairy farmers, strikes, huge political issues, and massive food shortages. Even if you throw your arms open to the world, the world produces what it can consume/sell and there would be a lag in increasing British supply. 2) massive food instability due to reliance on imports 3) significantly increased prices due to increased transport costs and scarcity- if say 20% of British dairy farmers go out of business, and you therefore lose more than 20% of your supply, you don't have to add in much in extra costs before people start feeling it and politically it's a nightmare- increasing the price of milk, butter, cheese? These are all seen as basic staples.

Again- it's not that there aren't ways around all this. But there aren't any obvious ways around all this that can be negotiated in three to six months that aren't essentially staying in the common market.

Also, there are emergency measures the government can impose under WTO rules if they're in a state of emergency and facing food shortages, which to be frank is likely to be the situation in a crashed out brexit scenario. I think a lot of the discussion on this must be v frightening for people. The issue is, realistically all that will take time to put into place and it's likely there will be a fair bit of disruption first. Not end of days disruption, but certainly the equivalent of a big snow/recession/etc, even if it's short lived.

Agree that end of days disruption is unlikely but some disruption is likely. I'm a prepper, I can roll with it. Food, water, light, heat, etc (even entertainment) as in place as I can manage for our family. Hope I don't need it. And, if I do, it blows over quickly. Prepped if it doesn't.

both sides should be engaging with how crap the gov is being in actually negotiating these issues

Rare area of unamity already is recognising that crap; complete disagreement how to clear it up, though.

Cameron/May could have proposed Norway model immediately; this would have quieted many Remainers but Brexiters would have immediately brought govt down in response, Tories would have imploded badly which few Tories could stomach (Bojo ran a mile from presiding over such a meltdown). There never could be a strategy we united behind, so mutually recognising the crap is no help at all.

I loathe the idea of another Referendum, but at least if it resulted again as Leave, I would accept it was the genuine will of majority to have a shitshow. Post 23.6.2016 there were a million public comments from leave-voters saying how much they regretted their vote. I don't feel convinced that Leave would win again; if we're gonna live under unpleasant painful chaos, I'd like to be sure it's truly what the majority wanted.

bella, people with money can prep.

They can store food, they can save earnings to cover price rises, they own their own houses so have stable homes for their children.

Those on the subsistence level, not so much. A minimum wage earner with no savings and dependent on work from week to week to pay rent and food bills can't prepare. They can't store food. They can't be sure a rent rise and/or a cut in working hours won't put them on the street.

I'm flabberghasted by the amount of "I'm ok Jack, I don't give a shit about those less well off" I'm seeing from people on these threads.

Regardless of what happens after Britain leaves, if I lived there at the moment I'd be very disappointed to see how many of the "haves" are so open about not caring about the "have nots".

I don't want to feel like a stranger in my own country, we are not lazy bastards who need foreigners to do our jobs for us, that's just a lie to bring in cheap labour

This is the most hilarious thing I've read on here.

I'm HR for a food factory. Not one person in the factory was born or educated in the UK apart from 1 of our managers. All are from the EU, apart from a few from Sri Lanka or India. If you believe I can fill the factory with British staff please come and try.

I hope you are all looking forward to food prices rising (even more than they are currently) and shortages as every other food business I know is in the same position. Its even harder to get EU staff now as many are going back to their own countries.

And as for them being a drain on the NHS? Well in the main they don't want NHS treatment. They all want to go back to their home countries to be treated and 90% of them don't even have a GP (despite my nagging them too). Don't believe everything you read in the Daily Mail.

There really should be an IQ test before people are allowed to vote.

inspector so you don't believe in universal suffrage? Only allowing people with a certain IQ to vote is the most undemocratic ive ever read on mumsnet.

Remainers are absolutely nuts. You will never change our minds so your wasting your breath.

You will never change our minds so your wasting your breath

Apart from the Leavers who are very vocal in having changed their minds

No one wants to change your minds. *Fenwick

Can you get past the result? Are you happy with the way things are going?

I'd be interested to know.

There really should be an IQ test before people are allowed to vote

I think this is such a patronising attitude to take.

Should there be an IQ test before people are allowed to stand for Parliament is the question you should be asking.

So cheese becomes luxury expensive luxury.... dairy isn't necessary we can manage without it.

Anything else we should have to manage without thanks to Brexit? I mean, that sounds great. No more dairy, but at least we've got blue passports. Jesus actual Christ.

I'm willing to bet not a single person on here saying zzzzzz and complaining that this should be in the Brexit topic, was a Remain voter. Funny how uncomfortable these discussions seem to make the Brexiteers. I wonder why - perhaps because it's obvious what a giant shitshow this is turning into?

The whole "need an IQ test to be allowed to vote" thing? It's just silly. I voted Remain and even I, stuck up elitist snob that I am, think that's a silly idea and is designed to antagonise.

Max what do you think of the remainer's suggestion that only the intelligent should be allowed to vote?

Hi I’m nuts! I think this will all eventually work out positive (I voter brexit and will vote brexit again if needed)

No I’m not happy with the way things are going. I’ll have a little rant now and again but I don’t let it strongly bother me or have a serious impact on my life. I’ve always been Tory but I’m fuming with Teresa May. Can’t I believe I fell for her tripe. I hope that she is outed now in some way or another. If I had my way we would have a hard Brexit and be done with it. I’m not scared of change or life getting worse for a bit. Scaremongering stories about blooming milk getting more expensive just make me laugh. I couldn’t give a crap if milk does get more expensive, something else will get cheaper.

If anything it’s pushed me further right in terms of politics. Unless Jacob Rees mogg ended up PM (which I doubt) I would never vote for the Tory’s again. I’ll vote for a small party that i could at least hold some belief in.
I just don’t see why remainers waste there time harping on trying to change our minds. I don’t believe leavers do it to remainers.
The remainers I know went back and fourth unsure on their decision before choosing remain but all the leavers I know said from day one they were leave and stuck to it. Seriously, your wasting your time. The stories about what COULD happen don’t bother us.