Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

Especially at this time. The poor Gazans and Lebanese

Trump

Trump. He had it in the bag when he was found guilty of the Stormy Daniels payments. It fed in perfectly to his underdog agenda.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If they didn't speak the same language as us, we'd be talking about the US like we do about Saudi Arabia.

So true.
But Harris is better than Trump by a hillybilly mile

I think Harris. Surely surely Trump has shop himself in thr arsenal enough with his deranged statements? Surely America?

I think Trump will win because of those swing states.

Feels like the momentum is with trump which is ludicrous.
It shouldn't even be close should it?
A weak america is bad for everyone this will mean they aren't taken seriously by anyone.

I think Trump will win and Biden should have stepped down sooner to give Harris more time.

I have the same worrying thought process

Don't care really. We don't have a vote on it so it's no one else's business what citizens of another country vote. We don't live their day to day life to be able to fully understand their decision reasoning.

He probably should have gone sooner but I’m not sure time is what would help. She was polling higher earlier on

I think you have to be very rich to be the President of the USA and thats why there is only those two in the race out of the 350 million.

Kamala Harris. Trump had the benefit of the doubt in 2016 against a very unpopular opponent. Then he had one really serious job to undertake : Covid. He totally fucked up.

He is no longer an unknown quantity plus he is 8 years older no wiser. Unemployment is low , stock market booming. Media love Trump of course so they have a vested interest in pushing him. But I just think he shot his bolt during Covid?

Unfortunately what happens in the US and who the President is does impact the rest of the world.

Ha...you just triggered a memory. When the Reagan result was announced my friend started laughing hysterically. When he recovered he said ' Oh my god it's like electing Zaphod Breeblebox!'

Little did we know 😭

Many Republicans in the US don't support Trump. I wonder if some of them will vote Harris strategically, because the party needs some time to rebuild. Voting Trump now means that it's very likely to be Vance in 4 years time and he's very widely disliked.

It would make sense from a moderate Republican POV to very quietly vote Harris. If she is only a one term president she might not get to appoint anybody to the supreme court. She's not super popular so the right Republican could trounce her in 2028.

The Donald

I think (and hope) that a lot of Republicans will vocally support Trump and then secretly vote Harris.

With many Americans, it’s the party not the candidate they support, and being a Republican is a whole lifestyle for them so to condemn it would cause problems within families and communities. But I hope when the time comes, they vote Harris because they know Trump is dangerous.

The problem with that is that the Republican party is floundering to figure out a post-Trump future.

The middle of the road Republicans, like Mitt Romney, have either left, become never-Trumpers (which equals leaving) or been run out. The Trump wannabes (Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis) don't have whatever factor it is that makes people like Trump. Even the pretty conservative Republicans who have spoken out against Trump (Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger) have been run out. JD Vance, the heir apparent, is deeply unpopular.

They've created a base has now become so out there and Trumpified, the party is at a loss to undo this and try to rebuild.

I think it will end up being too close to call and go to a recount in one or more States.. which will perhaps create a whole lot of issues with Trump claiming he’s won .. and then throwing a rather dangerous tantrum if it turns out he hasn’t. But I hope Harris is the very clear winner, if she does win!

I suspect Trump and it does feel unfathomable, that someone who is so
overtly sexist and racist could maintain such popularity. There will be huge problems in the US even if Harris wins because there is total breakdown of trust and communication between the two voter groups.

The more time she has, the worse she polls. She was doing better when they kept her away from tv, most of her interviews and appearances bar one have been terrible and her polling goes down each time

Trump although Harris gave me a glimmer of hope.

He tends not to get involved in wars which is a good thing.
jaw jaw not war war is the preferred option.
I wonder if putin would have invaded Ukraine if lame duck Joe had not been in charge.

If Kamala gets in (please!!)
do you think we’re likely to see a repeat of January 6th, 2021? ☹️