Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

@GameOfJones

With Trump, we know who he is. Not likable or even desirable but we KNOW who he is.

With her, we don't.

That is a deliberate strategy.

I fully understand that the stakes are high, and that most politicians end up cagey. But, to refuse to talk about your policy in any real way, to direct your very busy voters to look it up for themselves, is a terrible look.

Most of us know that policy can change. Therefore we want to have an idea of the character of the candidate so that we can guess at the rest.

Harris is not giving that, and people know. It is risky.

I would vote for her if I was American, but I would not necessarily feel good about it.

Could go either way.
Hoping for KH though.
To think we used to take the piss out of Reagan, Bush Jr etc and think them incompetent 🤦‍♀️

Seriously, how many interviews do you need? She's given plenty in this truncated campaigning season.

Trump. Sadly.

I think Trump will win and will get around 55% of the votes overall….

I believe Kamala is far less suitable and way more insane.

Have you heard her explaining cloud storage? She sounds like she is really stoned and I love the "did I do a good thing?" look at the end.

She would be an absolute disaster for both America and the West, hence my hope Trump wins as he is the lesser of two evils.

I think Harris will pip it but Trump won't accept the result

If only Michelle Obama had stood….

When and what channel are they on?
Oops wrong post, sorry!

When are they on @MorrisZapp ?

Trump will win thankfully.

I honestly think you cannot trust the polls coming out at all.
I'd never heard of Nate Silver, but it transpires he is being paid by political donor Peter Thiele who is backing Vance. So we cannot trust his word.

I am nervously optimistic for Harris, and the more you see and hear Trump, it is obvious that he is losing his mind now.

What is really important though is how the house of representatives and the senate look like afterwards, as whoever gets in is unable to do anything of worth if they can't get their policies through.

Absolute, definitely KH.

No way will Trump get in.

And Trump can’t string a sentence together full stop. He’s a dumb ass

I watch it on YouTube, it's usually dropped by lunchtime 🍕

TheMauveTiger

The Rest Is Politics US - I think the podcast comes out every Friday morning

Practically everyone who has ever worked with him can, and will, tell you why. He's a deranged fascist, who admires the world's despots. He wants generals like Adolf Hitler had, intends to go after the "enemy within" when he comes to power & wants to take away the licence of broadcasters who he doesn't like.

The UK's shared intelligence with the US will absolutely not be safe under Trump's watch, he'd sell us out for a bit of praise from one of his dictator pals.

Do you think, for example, he's going to object to Putin using North Korean troops in Ukraine? Because if he doesn't that's only going to escalate, and we know his views on supporting Europe.

Last week, I would've said that Harris would get it and all would be ok. But I was similarly wrong on Brexit and now I'm having the jitters.

What! You think the US and the world will be better off with a lunatic in the White House?

He won’t get the popular vote

It’s like choosing between Ebola and Marburg.

What do we all think about how quickly we will get a confirmed result. 4 years ago we didn't have a projection for the election winner until a week after the election. I somehow get the feeling that this time we will see a quicker outcome. I have no idea why, but that is what my gut feeling says. I sadly get the feeling we will see Trump re elected. I am not an American and wouldn't presume to understand what Americans think about this election, but is there a sense of deep unhappiness about the Democratic party and what they have accomplished while Biden is in power. I would be interested to see what ordinary Americans think would be the best outcome for them at this moment in time.

Definitely Trump!

I fervently, fervently hope Harris. Have sent our votes in.

I posted this on another thread - the author is a noted pessimist, so make of it what you will

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/im-sorry-but-the-math-is-okay-for?r=gjmxu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email