Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

Trump

Yes, times 10.

Trump, which I'm gutted about. I feel like the whole world has gone mad lately.

Trump. I had hope. I don't anymore.

He gets away with absolutely fucking everything.

If the election was held today then Harris would definitely win. However her support is very gradually slipping every day so if the election was held in say January 2025 then Trump would definitely win.

The question is will Harris current lead hold up until the 5th November, it will be very close but currently it looks like it will.

Why is Harris lead slipping? Because although morally and ethically Harris is the better person compared to Trump (OK it's not exactly difficult), the polls show that Trump holds a strong lead on the economy and growth. So whilst many indeed find him abhorrent when it comes to voting they will puts their own finances and jobs first.

@Wallaw

"The problem with that is that the Republican party is floundering to figure out a post-Trump future. "

It will be JD Vance. He is very clever and very calculating and will be very successful politically. If Trump wins he will be presidential candidate in 2029. If Trump loses then he will be presidential candidate in 2029.

Whilst he was initially unpopular his popularity has increased significantly since the VP debates :

www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-more-popular-tim-walz-battleground-states-poll-1973950

Voting has started. I sent back my ballot maybe 10 days ago.

I'm quietly hopeful for Harris.

"Harris's achievements other than she's been the VP:"

San Francisco district attorney and the attorney general of California, Harris was the first woman, the first African American, and the first Asian American to hold each office. Harris was the U.S. senator from California from 2017 to 2021.

I keep hearing about Harris meeting world leaders lately. When Harris was AG in California she did something about criminals to royally piss off my aunt (fervent republican anyway).

I keep thinking that if Harris hasn't "achieved anything", then what hope is there for the rest of us. My own life sure looks completely pointless & ineffecive in comparison, anyway.

I think Harris.

He didn't win last time.

Even if you ignore Yemen, Somalia and Niger, Trump's chaotic pulling back in Africa, Iraq & Afghanistan made the world a less safe place for the West.

He continues to undermine & insult America's allies while praising their enemies. He's a simpleton. He doesn't understand geopolitics and he's so easily manipulated he's dangerous.

The only sense in which he doesn't do war is when he got his Daddy to pay a doctor to pretend he had bone spurs to dodge serving.

Trump and my gut is in a landslide. The polls are increasingly pointing to this and while there are still so many way those 7 important swing states could fall, that no result would truly surprise me, the odds are tightening.

2way with Mark Halperin is well worth watching/reading/following on this.

For all those lamenting Trump supporter behaviour if they loose this election what do you think Harris supporters or, perhaps more accurately, anti Trump campaigners will look like if he wins?

Remember it’s not a FPP democracy it’s a representative republic. The only polls that really matter are in the swing states.

I'm in Ireland and polling has been very inaccurate here over the last couple of elections and referendums.
I'm sincerely hoping that the polls over there showing Trump doing well mean that his supporters get complacent and stay home. I hope the Democrats push hard and get every single vote out.

Didn't trump recently say something along the lines of looking up to Hitler?? Isn't that enough to put off Trump voters on top of everything else he has said and done.
I think Harris will win and Trump will instigate a riot when he loses.

His chief of staff confirmed that Trump said that Hitler did some good things and he said that he wanted his army generals to be as loyal as Hiltler's.
Vance has made a lot of off the wall statements too.
Harris is a intelligent person who has lived her life according to her beliefs. Trump and Vance are a pair of shysters who'd say anything for publicity.

I agree. There was a bounce for the democrats after Biden stepped down because KH was largely unknown to the US electorate, the more time they've had to find out about her the less they like her. You could argue she would have stood a better chance if it had been possible for Biden to delay standing down.

The betting markets are with Trump and the polling in the three states which really matter is too close to call. Historically support in those states has always been underestimated for Trump and overestimated for Biden/Clinton.

Well I highly doubt they're going to storm the Capital, shit on desks, construct a noose, assault police officers and assemble teams of fake electors.

Trump, she will be not much behind but behind enough
The USA are never going to have a woman president

Yes, he's smart and calculating and has lots of money behind him, but the likability bounce was pretty small. Women dislike him and Republican politicians loathe him. I think the Republicans will struggle not to shrink their base with him.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/

I really don't know. And I follow US politics quite closely, but from the UK. It is nail-biting close.

Trump

Why would anyone vote for Harris? A vote for her is an endorsement of biden/ Harris"s last 4 years.

Higher inflation

Election manipulation ie mail in- no voter id. Transfer of literally 1000's of immigrants into republican states and given the vote

Democrat cities in severe decline
Defund the police

Lighter sentencing

Lawlessness in previously seen as safe areas

Heard first hand how previously middle class workers in blue states ( NYC) are in near dire straits with how bad the economy is.

The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan
Trillions spent on ukraine.
Hows that going then?

When asked about the last 4 yr The Dems just bash Trump
.is that really all they have ??
It's a joke
Trump didn't start any new wars. Economy was doing well. That's all ordinary people remember. Kamala is the left and people are sick of the left. Its not America first with Kamala but it is with The Donald .. That is why he is looking on course to win.

The Trumps are shady
So are The Bidens

But people believe biden was a puppet / figure head and when it was obvious he wasn't the man in command they slot in Kamala with no democratic vote at all.
Trump a rapist- no conviction. Webs of lies from a docile media that hid Bidens ineptitude and his oh so creepy carry on.
4 yrs later people are struggling with COL and under trump they weren't so it's a total no brainer who to vote for

Erm, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan began as Trump's policy and your claim about immigrants in republican states is utterly unsubstantiated. The economy is pretty strong on most measures and inflation has significantly declined. Covid did not exactly help things. And again, even if Trump was not convicted of rape, he WAS convicted of sexual abuse. Or does that somehow not count?

Trump

Seriously?
How do you know when Trump is lying? His lips are moving.
He just rambles on and on, talking rubbish, and swaying to his favourite music. Time he retired.