Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

If Trump lasts the full 4 years I'd be amazed
so we need to look at Vance
best not to though, its scary
as he is full on Project 2025

Why ? He could be serving time by the end of the month

Pollimarket ? US citizens can't place bets with it. They employ the pollster Nate Fisher in some capacity. Very odd. Like the 20 odd polls that suddenly appeared showing Trump ahead. They skew the average on sites like 538.

Meanwhile a respected Iowa polling firm , Ann Selzer, has Harris up 3 pts in that Republican state. That poll could be out by 5 or 6 points and Trump is still in trouble.

If not well....RFKjr as Health Secretary? 😱

Do you mean Nate Silver? He's employed by Peter Thiel now, which speaks volumes. It's a nervous time for pollsters. The whole polling industry has been flailing a bit and the result next week could potentially deal them a body blow.

Silver not Fisher aaargh

Sorry yes @DrizzleMySwizzle ! I think some have overcorrected for 2016 etc.

US citizens can legally bet on elections for the first time this year.

Nate Silver left 538 in a round of layoffs after they/ABC were sold to Disney and now has his own site and is on the board (although I believe in a paid capacity) of Polymarket, which is part-owned by Peter Thiel, the silicon valley billionaire who basically created JD Vance as a political entity. Which is not to take away from NS's very legit career as a numbers guy. I'd just take it all with a great big shaker of salt.

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers/

yeah I think that's true. They've got ptsd from 2016 and 2020. But the polling industry in general seems to be struggling. the neck and neck things the polls have for the pres election, seems improbable to me. But I'm no polling expert, so we'll see!

MNHQ - please unhide my post - the link was to a legit article about Polymarket's dubious forecasting of the US election - the article does mention crypto

The polls seem to whip everything up into a frenzy. So I wonder if there are vested interested that like that?

The two main parties for a start. Television news and newspapers gain a lot. Or am I actually a conspiracy theorist who condemns conspiracy theories? 😂

Who makes money out of the way US elections are run ?

TV companies - who get Ad revenue (Murdoch etc)
Newspaper owners who get ad revenue (Bezos etc)
Social media owners who get ad revenue (Zuckerberg Musk etc)
Radio station owners who get ad revenue
Podcasters who get ad revenue (Bannon, Rogan etc)
Pollsters who get paid to say the same thing again and again

Imagine a 6 week campaign with strict spending limits (a la UK) in the USA

The media companies would be LIVID

And of course Trump NEVER lies, just when his lips are moving.

It's simple. Everything Trump says that you agree with is true. Everything he says that you disagree with is a joke/a lie/not said at all. That's how people with very (or not very) genuine and legitimate grievances whose beliefs/interests completely clash can join as one behind him, at least till the election. The hope is false but I fear the hate is real.

My gut feeling is now changing back to Harris... I think over the past week or so it is shifting to her favour. God I hope so.

They say the camera never lies...

Trump Boasts ‘Every Rally Is Full’ as Camera Pans to Empty Seats

I am feeling the same op

and really hope it’s a comfortable win regardless Trump will claim the election has been stolen from him if she does win

i cant not fathom what makes Trump so popular I think he has changed politics and that has impacted world politics this needs to be understood what is it excatly that is driving so many people to vote for mavericks as there shall be another Trump

His latest at the rally fondling the mic is so surreal! How can people in good conscience vote for this man?

And please don’t tell me that gas and food prices are more important than him ‘messing around’. Where do you draw the line for lower prices even if he could deliver? Or is there no line?

Sadly, I've come to the conclusion that there is no line.

SNL can at least soften the blow...

I am immensely heartened by Selzer's Iowa poll. It's only another few days. I truly believe, but worry I am just delerious, that Kamala will win with a massive blue wave - hoping for a tsunami.

Trump sadly

just cant see american men voting in a female president

If Trump wins, it won't be for all that long, as he'll die soon or get dementia (if he hasn't already got dementia).

"White women over 65 are voting for Kamala.

We were the first ones to get a credit card, own a home, divorce an abusive husband, and gain reproductive rights without a wire hanger. Fuck the GOP.
Post-menopausal feminists are going to bury MAGA." Jane of the North

Because Biden want to smack asses!

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-smack-trump-and-supporters_n_6727b636e4b0cfb9cc69cd9f

T minus TWO days and no American CARES about the election any longer!! We just want all the phone messaging of pollsters asking who we decided to vote for to stop; the dumps of voting propaganda (at least a dozen fliers a DAY minimum) to STOP; the media to STOP guessing and talking it up, down, sideways; the sneaky pollsters knocking on our doors!! We cannot believe the pollsters/canvassers this year - it is as if someone released the Flying Monkeys!

I was standing in a grocery line today and said to the check out clerk: "We will ALL be so HAPPY when it is OVER!!" and everyone behind me in line began a round of applause! Then everyone around began cheering and laughing. This is the first time we've all smiled in unison in months! It is hell being an American voter this year...but we LOVE our freedom more! 😎

After that, someone said: and then we get to watch WHICHEVER side loses behave like horses asses. Politics are having a dumpster fire year.