Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

I think Trump will win

Because a black women is just too much for a lot of Americans

I've put £100 on Harris to win.

Bookies have Trump as a red hot favourite. They’re rarely wrong.

We'll soon see.

I for one hope he does it.

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris pulls ahead in state Donald Trump won twice

Her final ad.

As I see it's a choice between an unpleasant man but who has policies that will improve the economy and make individuals better off OR a pleasant woman but who has policies that will damage the economy and make individuals worse off.

Which individuals? Not the ones he plans to abuse, shoot, deprive of basic rights, or deport, I presume.

Also a man who knows a woman is a biological female & will not allow males compete in female sports vs a woman who is supportive of males pretending to be females & would allow them participate in female sports & infiltrate female private spaces.

Trump :(

Going to be interesting with Trump’s sentencing hearing at the end of this month!

Have to admit, I put money on Harris to win a couple of days ago.
Can't really get good odds on her since then.

Polls are putting her ahead in Iowa!!

This isn’t true though is it.

Most bookies odds have Trump a smidgen in the lead but certainly nothing you’d describe as a red hot favourite. William Hill for example currently has Trump at 4/5 and Harris at evens. In other words….bugger all in it.

The odds have been swinging back towards Harris over the past week and by Wednesday she may well have overtaken him at this rate.

Where are you getting data that his plan will improve the economy?

Because almost every reputable economist, including the professors at Trump's much-bragged-about Wharton School have provided analyses that show his economic plans will increase both the deficit and inflation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/nobel-prize-economists-harris-economic-plan/index.html

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/trump-campaign-policy-proposals-2024

And then there's the potential economic effect of his deportation plan

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/30/trump-deportation-plan-economic-disaster

I guess all those women who will die because of the abortion ban don’t figure.

@Begsthequestion

"Which individuals? Not the ones he plans to abuse, shoot, deprive of basic rights, or deport, I presume"

Sorry to clarify I meant the majority of individuals especially those in work and to be honest to win an election you just need to win over the majority of voters.

@Wallaw

"Where are you getting data that his plan will improve the economy?"

There is no data nor can there be any accurate forecast of whether he will or will not improve the economy. It is simply the voters opinion shown in the polls that voters believe he will do a better job on the economy. They could be right or could be wrong but that what the polls are saying.

@SnakesAndArrows

"I guess all those women who will die because of the abortion ban don’t figure."

Well firstly most voters base their decision on the economy rather than abortion rights. I understand that it is an important issue to a lot of women but in a democracy it is the most important issues that decide elections.

Secondly Trump says he will not introduce a federal ban on abortion but leave it up to individual states to decide their abortion policy as is already and currently the case. Now he could be lying of course but this is what he has stated

Any voter who chooses Trump to get the tariffs he is promising
deserves EXACTLY what will come their way.

The mechanism of tariffs is long standing and global
only those with half a brain cannot comprehend the harm they will do to the USA

Any woman could be affected by this in her lifetime, so hardly unimportant. Harris will ensure that women seeking healthcare for a miscarriage are prioritised over the foetus.

But I see I misunderstood your post - I thought you were explaining your own choice rather than commenting on voter motivation.

Abortion bans have further consequences for the communities

States with abortion bans are becoming medical care deserts.
No decent gynae doctor wants to practice there for fear of prosecution.
It has knock on effects for the whole system.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852921202567688416.html

Trump 🙏🙏🙏🥳

Aren't women 52% of the population?

Plus the other groups in mentioned.

So, not the majority then.