Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

There's always one...

If she wins, I don't see chaos happening. The media will blow everything out of proportion just to get clicks of course, but Americans are TIRED and want to move forward. We have bigger fish to fry 😎 nations to support, get out of NATO...so we can decrease our national debt.

America will watch Harris, and pray as President she can do the job, not be bullied by those who got her there (powers that be); she got to the election ballot on a loophole, no elected her in the Primary, they didn't get a chance to even decide who was going to be the Dem nominee.

By New Yorker I mean I was born and raised in Manhattan, on the Upper East Side, spent summers on Long Island, went away to university, came back for my master's, left for my JD, returned and lived in Park Slope and Tribeca.

For such a student of human intellect, you are curiously lacking in the type of basic knowledge that shows you to be conversant with current events. Truth Social is a social media platform set up by Trump (you might want to look into the financial success of it, lol) when he was banned from Twitter for posting egregious lies and stoking an insurrection. It's a direct line from his brain (in which you are so interested) to his fingers.

The broken brain loveliness demonstrated in his Nazi rally last night spews forth from him and his supporters daily in series of ill-punctuated, incorrect-grammar-laden, ALL CAPS, rancid foetid, racist, misogynistic, nationalistic, diarrhoea. Many of the people who frequent the site are openly Nazis, White Supremacists and supporters of the Confederacy.

As Maya Angelou so famously said, when someone show you who they are, believe them the first time. Well, that's Trump's platform to remind us on a daily basis.

And, as for JD Vance. Yes, he's smart. So smart that he managed to find a sugar daddy to buy his way into the senate, where glided happily from calling Trump a Hitler and 'cultural heroine' to having his tongue so far up Trump's diaper-clad ass he might never get it back. And, definitely, someone who openly admits he's made up lies about legal immigrants (ones for whom he serves as the sitting senator, they're literally his constituents) is not playing the race card?

I agree with @HowardTJMoon . Some people seem to be unable to ever recover from a black man being elected president.

I love our American political system: the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial checks and balances will play out. Our Constitution took FOREVER to finalize, but what a symphony it is.

Um, yeah. Mitch McConnell was definitely paying homage to the 'symphony' when he broke all norms to pack the Supreme Court, which has just completely subverted the checks and balances to give total presidential immunity. Footnote: you might want to look up JD Vance's beloved Project 2025 if you're such a huge fan of the Constitution and the checks and balances.

This is going to be my last response to you because I can't be bothered any more, but

get out of NATO...so we can decrease our national debt.

You might want to do a little reading of reputable publications - the FT, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, the papers put out by the professors at Trump's beloved Wharton School. Almost all economists agree that Trump's economic plans will increase the deficit and raise inflation and interest rates. It's almost unheard of for this many economists to agree on anything.

I think you will find there are millions who prefer Trump over Harris.

Not sure if anyone watched the Joe Rogan/Trump chat but it was a very interesting three hours (below). I can't imagine Kamala coming across that well in an interview with Joe.

Tbf if it was only one he wouldn't have the chance he does at getting in. It's close but he may be edging it in last week or so

Harris was polling higher earlier

Waves to @Wallaw from Gramercy Park - where I started out.

I admit I scroll past Sheri's screeds. I assume a Putin funded AI, like the ones we have on the Brexit threads.

The reports from Madison Square garden are interesting. There are >50,000 Puerto Ricans in PA ....

👋@Talkinpeace I love the Gramercy area.

You're probably right. I guess they're programming AI to misuse capitalisation now 😆

Yes, almost amusing to watch the Trump team trying to scramble away. Someone else pointed out that none of it could have got on the teleprompter without his team knowing about it. You have to wonder who vetted this guy...

Gut says Trump. They’re both dreadful.

340 million people and that’s the best they could do 😂🤦🏼‍♀️ Actually our own politicians are entirely shit too 🤦🏼‍♀️

I have said Trump from the start. Great if he doesn’t but I sadly think he will.

I wouldn't live or die by this, but Nate Silver has just flipped his model to 'probably' Harris.

What was it before?

I just googled to see what he was saying and it seems this is the prediction is slightly to Trump, but not to move from 50/50 really

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/donald-trump-winning-us-elections-famed-polling-guru-nate-silver-s-gut-prediction/ar-AA1t3379

It's so close that I have no idea who will win. My feeling is that Trump has regained the momentum.

We are living at a time when China, Russia and Iran are posing a dire threat to the world order and where, therefore, a strong America with a strong defence of democracy and a serious president as, literally, the leader of the free world is of utmost importance.

Donald Trump is a dire prospect; pathetic as a man but in league with some dangerously dodgy people. It should have been easy for the Democrats to come up with someone who could beat him without breaking a sweat but, from start to finish, they have fumbled this badly. They should have been planning a successor to Biden for a long time; they should have got Biden to announce he wasn't standing much earlier; they should have held primaries instead of anointing Harris.

Out of the two, I would hold my nose and hope Harris wins, but the world is growing increasingly threatening right now so I hope the US starts finding a way to make sure its most impressive people rise to the top of politics.

Bold move to insult the people of Puerto Rico.

I can't help noticing all Trump's accusations against Harris are in fact, in true narcissist fashion, actually confessions.

He called Harris a “low-IQ individual.” He offered so many lies that cable networks tuned him out because it was impossible to keep up with fact-checking him. He returned to old themes like the bizarre notion that Harris would reinstate the draft and start World War III.

Most importantly from the perspective of confirming his fascism he reiterated at length his assertion that his opponents were “enemies of the people.” (You know the ones against whom he promised to unleash the U.S. military.) He called them “the most sinister and corrupt forces on Earth.”

Donald Trump’s Racist NYC Rally Was Vile. It Was Also Political Suicide (thedailybeast.com)

In just 23 words, the 'New York Times' made the case for a Harris presidency - Fast Company

Opinion | What Donald Trump Would Do, in His Own Words - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

No thanks 👍🏻

Really?

Well, no. You wouldn't. Of course.

Anybody read the article about ballot boxes being set on fire in Oregon and Washington states ? Frightening.

DD and I watched the excellent, if worrying, documentary on Trump’s re-election bid on BBC1 yesterday evening. V interesting mix of interviewees. I definitely recommend it.

No I have not read these reports *Onyxvontrollenberg *but i would not be surprised

talking to family in the states they are concerned of issues that might arise after the election

I just hope Harris wins and it is a very clear win but that won't stop Trump claiming its a fix

Trump. Although likely to be a disaster for America and the rest of the world.

In the 3hr Rogan/Trump interview he almost comes across as likeable (never thought I would say that!) and I can see why large sections of the population might vote for him.

get it wrong in which way?

She reminds of a nervous rabbit caught in the headlights 🙄

I’m feeling Trump will win.
the best of 2 not great options