Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

Really hope it’s not Trump but (as with the UK) I’m stunned that neither party has come up with anyone better. Hundreds of potential candidates and plenty of time to sort it, yet both country have been run by absolute muppets for years.
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I think Harris might just scrape through, and then there will be chaos, because it's not like Trump will just say 'ok, well done, I'll get my coat...'

Trump will win..kamalas not that popular..Shapiro or Michelle Obama could have done it for them..too late

What is it with all this Michelle Obama mess
she was never ever going to run

democrats were never ever going to win with Kamala

I'd love Kamala Harris to win but I don't think she stands a chance, sadly.

Trump purports to represent an enormous majority of people, working class and middle class, who've just been discarded by the rampant capitalism in the US.

Whether he delivers on that is another matter, but it's going to get him elected.

I am slightly encouraged by Alan Lichtman holding strong on his prediction of a Harris win, based on his 13 keys.

“My predictions have stood the test of time, my indicators have always been right,” he said. “The keys are very objective and quantitative.”

“I have frequently made my prediction correctly in defiance of the polls, it’s based on 160 years of precedent.”

Lichtman conceded, however, that there is always a possibility he could be wrong. “The keys are very robust,” he said. “But it’s always possible that something so cataclysmic and so unprecedented could change the pattern of history.”

By him identifying as "black" rather than keeping himself neutral and not treating ALL people as equal is what this man did. Half the black population can't stand the man because he is so racist and made the division in the US much WORSE than ever before and we lost all the progress on equality for blacks BECAUSE he made his office about being black. He should have run on "We are American" there is no black, no white, no brown, no male, no female: WE are Americans. THAT is what made him a target. The US has a high number of mixed races. Once you take citizenship in the US many of us who were born here and immigrated are proud to be AMERICAN; are no longer any ethnicity - you are American. Taking advantage of minority status benefits because you can is no way to be a leader. He USED his race card OVER andOVER and he paid for it. He set the US on a terrible course of division.

Harris is doing the same race card Obama used. The first this and the first that and blah blah blah is sickening to all Americans. We are the only country that can say we ALL are mixed race/ethnicity. Other than AMERICAN Native tribes - and even those are of mixed race at some point. Harris will be just as divisive as Obama was. God save America. At least Trump doesn't run a race card. It is a breath of fresh air. Can't stand his personality but I am not marrying the man, I just want a leader; someone who appreciates AMERICA and ALL AMERICANS. He is an American FIRST. Harris thinks she is black/brown/woman rather than an AMERICAN.

At least Trump doesn't run a race card.

Because he is a white man! (With a mug shot.)

Maybe you missed it, but I asked a few pages back if you could cite an example of this?

but at least Trump will take a stand, is able to change course if needed in a heartbeat and apologize and say "I was wrong".

THAT "capitalism" is what makes opportunity. Capitalism is not a bad word. Capitalism is what makes America the country that 1.3 MILLION people have been trying to get to to enjoy our Capitalism!! Capitalism in America breeds industry, innovation, jobs, being able to save money and INVEST that money; a way to work your way up as FAR as you can - with your OWN two hands and feet. MIDDLE class the majority of the population in America, but you know who PAYS the most taxes? : the top 5% of the population by wealth. It is ridiculous for anyone to say "The working class and middle class....have just been discarded by rampant capitalism..". For ONE thing, capitalism is what makes America be what it is, it makes us SAFE, makes it the destination for millions upon millions for hundreds of years now; it makes people want to strive to achieve.

Research IT, you obviously have the internet!

Have you ever done serious work on researching his positive qualities, his business acumen? His background? Look up some TV interviews from the 80s; he is a very intelligent man in so many ways. He declined being President in the 80s when people were trying to get him to run, but he still holds to his reasons why he would run "if he thought about it"; he hasn't changed. AND he selected an excellent running mate, so IF he is assassinated or dies in office, we have VANCE and not that very "sly dog" of a politician Harris chose. What a nightmare her entire resume is: her using her race, inability to think, her INEXPERIENCE, her being a California progressive. California is in the toilet economy wise, et al, people are fleeing California due to progressive politics. Progressive politics are dead on arrival for 80% of Americans.

I desperately want it to be Harris, but I'm terrified it's going to be Trump.
I'm genuinely becoming fearful for the future... 😕😔

Your posts are almost as insane as his Truth Socials.

'm a New Yorker. I've known what and who Donald Trump is for about 40 years. He was a spoiled idiot, busy running his father's business into the ground then, and he hasn't improved as the narcissism has worsened and the dementia's set in.

The only time I've ever seen him apologise, grudgingly and because he was forced, was when he was caught on tape boasting about grabbing women by the pussy. Can you name another time? Or will you just tell me to 'research' because you can't?

Very depressed, I expect. I don't think they'll storm the capital and create hanging platforms with nooses, and so on, however.

Kamala Harris has "an inability to think"! She was a DA.

Forty years? We must be about the same age, give or take 10-20 years perhaps?

I actually had to look up exactly what "...his Truth Socials" was. Now I know - it is an app. No wonder I never bothered with it; and it figures: a DJT media app where he can pontificate. How original - a man who enjoys feeling important, wants attention and who needs to NOT say 70 percent of what he says. Have come to the conclusion DJT is a compulsive social media nug who needs to be reminded over and over less is more.

I do not follow random social media, such as Twitter. Minor forums such as this one are entertainment for me, for lack of a better term. I observe and study how others think, their knowledge or lack of knowledge, and how others react to current events. This gives me a chance to take a break from reading research articles in published professional journals, sound sources of information.

As I don't know or care about Truth Social, I cannot relate to your comment informing me me my posts are "almost as insane" as Truth Socials. Am trying to stop myself from thinking "Typical rude NY comment, so low class..." but I do not know you from Adam, and won't comment rudely to one I do not know more deeply.

Curious: when one calls one's self "a New Yorker" does that mean they are a resident of some part of New York state, or are a resident of New York city metro itself?

Am sadly disappointed neither American political party could come up with better candidates to vote for. The voters, for the second time in 8 years, are trying to discern the less of two evils when they vote this election year.

Am rather hoping DJT will win and then croak and then JD Vance lead; he has presence and intellect. We DO need a fresh face that isn't playing a race card. Harris/Dems, again playing race politics as Obama did, splitting the country at the seams; Harris' Dems thinking it will work again, which will drag us further into an abyss of splintered disfunction.

We need to stay positive, look forward and not insult each other as Americans. I assume that because you state you are an "New Yorker".

Remember: she was a DA from California.

Sure she can think: like a progressive.

Think about the bright side. Perhaps he will get elected, then either declared incompetent due to mental defect or die in office early on? Then we'd have Vance, who is a) intelligent, 2) can speak a complete sentence without resorting to giggling or going around in verbal circles saying zip; and 3) he comes across as presidential. God help him if Trump does win; some Dems will be furious.

He is an American...we need to start running as AMERICAN. No, he cannot run a race card..because HE is an American and only Americans can be president. We don't give a rat's patootie what color he is...as long as he can lead.

I am an American that keeps getting referred to as "white"! I am NOT white, red, black, or brown; being referred to as a color is demeaning and rude. We are a MIXTURE of many nationalities; genetically made up shades of skin, so everyone needs to just STOP this racist diatribe, because AMERICANS don't have a national COLOR identity.

And if Lichtman is correct, most Americans should and will stand behind the position and NOT the person. This person will be Commander in Chief.

We need to look forward and work to get our Congress to start doing their JOB: representing us all and making laws instead of abdicating their power to the office of the President just because THEY can't get along.

I love our American political system: the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial checks and balances will play out. Our Constitution took FOREVER to finalize, but what a symphony it is.

As Van Jones said: "He gets to be lawless, she has to be flawless."

Michelle Obama: "I hope you'll forgive me if I'm a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump's gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn. I hope that you'll forgive me if I'm a little angry that we are indifferent to his erratic behavior. His obvious mental decline. His history as a convicted felon. A known slumlord. A predator found liable for sexual abuse. All of this while we pick apart Kamala's answers from interviews that he doesn't even have the courage to do, y'all."

Right, just like on January 6?

Thank you for so voluminously demonstrating my point. Obama broke the brains of a significant chunk of the US electorate.