Who will win US Election - Gut feelings

[EveryBiteinBangkok]

I have been half following online and media coverage of the US Election. It is getting close now. What is your gut feeling on who is going to win?

About a month ago, I felt fairly confident that Kamala Harris would win (who I want to win). Now though I am not sure and the amount of rumour and almost conspiracy around it online seems to be reaching fever pitch.

If you had to place a bet (grand national style) who would you go for?

Trump. God help the world.

I think it's too close to call. The decision desk and the economist modelling both point toward him as slightly more likely to win but the margins are close. Current decision desk modelling gives him a 54% chance of winning. The Economist modelling gives him a 56% chance of winning. The JHK forecast gives him a 52% chance. Let's wait and see.

😂....well yes , maybe some Democrat spy in his make up department...

I've swung round to feeling far more optimistic about Kamala's chances. There are a lot of women motivated to vote to protect their reproductive rights. Even the Villages in Florida have turned and are showing a large Blue wave. That rally exposed how hate-filled the Trump campaign is, and has really pissed off the PR community. And a large number of Trump's former voters were killed off by Covid, after following along and listening to his downplaying of the pandemic.

It isn't "frightening" it is STUPID. Stupid to put ballot boxes out when there are ZERO eyes on it.

Keep voting methods smart and supervised. It isn't rocket science.

But no, they bought ballot boxes with internal fire suppression devices. What idiots.

If people can't get out to vote on election day or three weekdays leading up to election day, because it is important to them to DO, then it must not be important for some. Thank the left wing liberal winers for that one.

Kamala. Trump will have the biggest tantrum ever.

Trump to win by default (lack of legitimate opponent).

If he does win power hungry Biden has to take an enormous amount of blame as he hung on too long for there to be a vote for the next Democrat leader. Had there been a vote Kamala almost certainly would have been eliminated very early like last time and a proper, competent, non bluffer candidate would have won. She is VP as Biden needed to tick a box (opposite of a non elderly white male) to cover the widest base, and with his mental capacity diminishing she was then fast tracked to a position she would otherwise never have attained.

Although I can't see it happening I'd like to see her win for the immense backlash from the crazies.

75,000 turned out to see KH at her Washington DC rally. Video of the crowd size is incredible.

F

Betting sites say Trump.

But men are mostly betting so it's ignoring 52% of the population.

Swifties will also be voting

I agree, and with polls too I suspect some women will be reluctant to admit publicly that they are going against their husband's wishes and secretly voting for Kamala.

The economist modelling now has them in a dead heat 50/50. Kamala looks strong. Women in the US are presumably ( and rightly ) repulsed by her misogynist opponent.

I can't think his suggesting Liz Cheney should be - shot in the face? put in front of a firing squad? - will be particularly helpful

https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1852213103645048969

Its just awful Wallaw

Makes no difference to his core supporters but its those that may not have faith in either candidate that much that this may make a difference it may make them think he is too much of a liability to have as president again so I have to vote against him

Harris 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Some of the American commentators think the pollsters' lists of voters was made before a lot of young people and women in particular registered.

I feel sorry for everyone in the US if Trump calls for war, he called a win early on last time without awaiting the full results. I have a friend in Boston who is genuinely scared about what is coming

The polls were wildly wrong in 2016. They were also wrong in 2020. I am hoping they are wrong again in 2024, and that Harris wins by a landslide.

My Twitter feed seems oddly far more confident than a week ago that Harris will win.
Their confidence has me feeling even twitchier about it!

Y
This. I'm hoping the pollsters tweaked things too far , to account for Shy Trumpers and are now underestimating Harris.

I wouldn't vote for Trump even if he was a Democrat candidate. You can't threaten to murder people.

Interesting article on polling accuracy from Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the NYT

gift link

Whilst I was once confident Kamala would win, I am now quite hesitant with my prediction and think it can swing towards Trump.

I think he has won over some demographics that were strongly democrat by vowing to end the wars in the middle east. Kamala hasn't really said what she would do different to Biden, whose policies their have been a disaster.

Let's hope so 🤞

I don't think the voting bloc that doesn't like the Biden/Harris policies are going to care much for his, which will be ceding to everything Netanyahu wants, and I suspect a lot of them know this.

The real issue is that the Republican Party is funding phone calls to these voters trying to get them to vote for Jill Stein, who they hope will siphon off enough votes to be a spoiler in the swing states.

https://x.com/KFILE/status/1851987411212881929

The real issue is that the Republican Party is funding phone calls to these voters trying to get them to vote for Jill Stein, who they hope will siphon off enough votes to be a spoiler in the swing states.

This is another issue which will work in Trumps favour. Aswell as that, there are many previously loyal democrat voters who have said they will not be using their vote as they can't in good faith vote for either party, which is again a bonus for Trump.