Thread 43 Sunak - Seriously Scapegoating

[DuncinToffee]

Buckle up for the local elections 🍿

Previous thread here
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5059786-thread-42-sunak-ping-pong-with-the-enemies-of-the-people?page=40

I very much doubt it. If things had been much closer in London then maybe, but they were able to win the West Midlands Mayoralty even with the Gaza vote taking a bite out of their vote share.

I'd like them to be more outspoken on Gaza, mind.

No, they had that arrangement when May lost the 2017 election. It finished with Johnson's landslide. It cost them a lot of our money too.

The Channel Tunnel was opened 30 years ago, 6 May 1994

Already the analysis that Rish! kindly has provided suggests not. Gaza may be an issue. But it isn't the issue. And even if some isn't going to vote Labour because of Gaza, they most certain aren't gong to vote Tory. So it wouldn't be an area to try and milk votes from.

Much as the whole trans debate has amounted to a hill o' beans when it comes to masses voting. There's no sign that any candidate lost their seat because of a concerted effort by the FWR board to make it the issue des nos jours.

TL;DR the UK is not a homogenous demographic.

It is getting very irritating that parts of the media are pushing this one projection as the only possible outcome.

But as @BIossomtoes said yesterday, maybe it is a good thing for the electorate to not think it is a done deal.

I've noticed people are getting braver at showing Brexit isn't working. First signs of a turn against it for me was when the farmers refused to acknowledge most of them voted for it. Seems to be commonly acknowledged now it wasn't project fear. Something for Labour to plan for though. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-farmers-food-security-survey-b2540003.html

If we are talking coalition with the Lb Dems I don't think many voters would be very alarmed by that.

Totally off topic, but this photo of Sadiq and Count Binface is brilliant.

I think they might. Look what happened last time. 😱

As a remainer I would love that - I think the Libs have a comprehensive list of the areas Brexit hit, unlike the gov who pretending nothing would change other than 'sovrinty'. I actually think a Lib/Lab coalition is well overdue and never understood Brown refusing to reach an agreement with them.

I've noticed people are getting braver at showing Brexit isn't working

My view is just that old people have retired and died. Demographics, that's all. Because ...

First signs of a turn against it for me was when the farmers refused to acknowledge most of them voted for it

That is the diametric opposite of owning Brexit. It's gaslighting an entire nation who have been kicked in the collective nads because farmers joined the Brexit brigade. When any of those fuckers comes out and apologises to the nation, we are progressing.

Right now we have a weasely ferrety collection of groups who all backed Brexit wanting a massive handout to make up for their fuck up from the very people who warned them all the way.

. Seems to be commonly acknowledged now it wasn't project fear. Something for Labour to plan for though.

Ah yes, but that was with the Tories.

The Tories won't use that possibility as a scare tactic, they will use the suggestion of Labour being propped up by the SNP.

I know. But we all know how warped memories are and how lacking in nuance most people’s thinking is. I can’t see Davey risking it personally. Hopefully it won’t be necessary for the possibility to be considered.

That possibility may be receding very fast.

Yet another reason Rish! delaying the election is making things worse for the Tories. The SNP will turn out to be the Wizard of Oz by the time we get there.

Also, it's clear the Tories still have no idea how unpopular they are. People would rather vote for "Nick, O - the infernal party" than their Tory candidate. If their nuclear levels of scare didn't work in London, then it's unlikely they will work anywhere else. Remember Khan increased his majority.

We are all paying so much more for so much less.
The electorate are more aware than we are being given credit for by
the Tories.
In a wealthy area next to where I live (not my ward ) the incumbent Tory
councillors were all voted out and 3 Greens elected. Isn't that quite something?
Happy to say my area had a massive switch to Labour, and other parties so I am more hopeful than ever.
As well as being very intelligent, Keir Starmer can read the room I believe.
It will be a time when we will have to get behind the country and be realistic in
accepting how much time it will take to slowly improve life for the many, not just the few.

It's not (in fact it's never) too premature to consider what a 100+ majority means for Labour.

For a start it means they can happily allow MPs to vote more with their consciences - which may (or may not) help in some constituencies with concentrated interests.

It also means that can ram pretty much anything they damn well like though parliament. To the extent that I would advise they keep their manifesto deliberately vague. Because they can do what they like.

Massive majorities aren't good for democracy. But if we insist on persisting with FPTP then that's the hand we are dealing with.

With a majority like that, I'd be tempted to reform the HoL immediately so that any Tory blocking can be bypassed with the parliament act even if it's not explicitly in the manifesto.

I think people tories believing it could be a hung parliament might prove useful tbh

Some in "pig in a blue rosettee" constituency might not feel the need to vote?

I'm laughing at the idea the Tory messaging is doubling back to Coalition of Chaos v Strong and Stable.

It relies upon the population suffering from collective amnesia which I suppose has always been The Plan.

Was Brown's problem that he was actually too upstanding and therefore believed that since Cameron had one more seats he should get first go at assembly a government?

I don't think what Brown wanted came into it.

My memory was the LDs felt it would be problematic for them to prop up a regime the electorate had rejected.

Hopefully a lot of the toddler voters that threw their toys out of the pram over the coalition have grown up now are are doing adulting properly.

Turns out that the Rwanda Act requires Rwanda to issue people we send with ID papers etc as soon a possible. It also states that we can’t send people with Rwandan documents back to Rwanda as it isn’t safe. So if he hasn’t got his papers he’s missed a trick because technically he could come back here and get asylum from Rwanda if he waited a bit longer.

I don’t think the government would allow that to happen without a prolonged legal battle but they have written it into law.

So:

An asylum seeker is sent from the UK to Rwanda
They get Rwandan ID
They could then flee Rwanda and get back to the UK.
They can't be sent to Rwanda as they have Rwandan ID and people with Rwandan ID can't be sent to Rwanda as the law states that people with Rwandan ID can't be sent to Rwanda as it's unsafe for people with Rwandan ID?

Is that correct?

Blame Labour.

https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1787442474601918887

NEW: Lib Dem leader Ed Davey to table motion of no confidence in government when Parliament returns tomorrow, in bid to force June general election.

(Bit of a stunt as, even if Labour & SNP back such a vote, the Tories still have a big majority.)