Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Apologies, the text link did not work. MN seem to tinker with upgrades too much so the rules change when they need not.

It could have had all of these things. But under Putin Russia took a path that was to suppress meritocracy. For that decision all the blame lies with Putin.

And the many, many people who supported him.

There seems to be something deep within the Russian culture that creates a vaccuum at the top for something very unpleasant. Tsar, Stalin / the Soviet Union, Putin; it's consistently been a society that seems to seek a repressive atmosphere.

I hope I'm wrong but the corruption seems to have been very deep seated for a long time, certainly since the Bolshevik revolution. Most of all Russian soldiers have had a terrible reputation for a long time. So did soldiers in other Western lands but there has been a slow, imperfect improvement in the standards expected. Russian soldiers have always had a bad rep and it hasn't improved and that indicates (along with the treatment of prisoners and vulnerable people) that there's something going back further than Putin.

The British government is going to recognize PMC "Wagner" as a terrorist organization in the coming weeks

In the coming weeks??? This should have been done a year ago! 🤯

You are completely right in your assessments.

Another good interview with Fiona Hill by Gideon Rachman. I know a lot of us set a lot of store by what she says and, as usual, I thought this was great analysis: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-rachman-review/id1504048545?i=1000612579288

Ooh fab will definitely give it a listen.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.
• Pervasive issues with Russian combat capabilities, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck a command center where Ukrainian military commanders and officials were located, likely to support an ongoing effort to frame Russian operations as constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive. [however, Ukr has claimed that all the 'deceased commanders' are in fact alive]
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot missile defense system. The Biden administration also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna areas.
• Russian and Wagner Group forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on May 10, despite Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s previous threat that Wagner would withdraw from the area at midnight.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree calling up citizens from reserves for military training.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing the removal of Ukrainian residents from their homes in occupied areas under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Governors claim attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/governors-claim-drone-attacks-on-two-russian-regions-bordering-ukraine/) on three Russian regions bordering Ukraine.
The governors of Russia's Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk regions reported drone attacks and shelling on May 10.
A military training ground was allegedly targeted by two drones in Voronezh Oblast, while in Belgorod Oblast's town of Shebekino, one person was purportedly killed in the shelling. Ukraine has not commented on whether it was responsible for the attacks.

⚡️Peskov claims (https://kyivindependent.com/peskov-claims-kremlin/) Kremlin hasn't seen Wagner boss Prigozhin's latest video on conflict with defense ministry.

⚡️Media: Russian Kh-55 missile (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-kh-55-missile-likely-fell-in-bydgoszcz-poland/) likely fell in Bydgoszcz, Poland.
The military object, found in April near the Polish town of Bydgoszcz, could be a Russian Kh-55 cruise missile launched from Belarus during a mass attack against Ukraine, Polish radio station RMF FM reported on May 1

⚡️Minister: Sweden unable to send (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-sweden-unable-to-send-ukraine-fighter-jets/) Ukraine fighter jets.
Sweden is currently unable to provide Ukraine with Gripen fighter aircraft as it doesn't have enough planes to send them abroad, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said on May 9, as cited by national broadcaster SVT.

⚡️Kuleba says (https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-says-upcoming-ukraine-counteroffensive-should-not-be-seen-as-final/) upcoming Ukraine counteroffensive 'should not be seen as final.'
"If we succeed in liberating our territories with this counteroffensive, you can say it was the last one, but if not, that means we have to prepare for the next counteroffensive," said Kuleba.

⚡️Journalists publish map of over 200 Russian military facilities (https://kyivindependent.com/journalists-publish-map-of-223-russian-military-facilities-in-occupied-crimea/) in occupied Crimea.
Journalists from Krym Realii media outlet published a map on May 10 that geolocates 223 active, temporary, and preserved military facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea.

⚡️ Warsaw summons (https://kyivindependent.com/warsaw-summons-russian-ambassador-over-interception-of-polish-aircraft/) Russian ambassador over interception of Polish aircraft.
Poland’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador in Warsaw, Sergey Andreev, over the recent interception of an unarmed Polish aircraft by a Russian fighter jet on May 5

⚡️Czech Republic to provide 2 Kub air defense systems (https://kyivindependent.com/czech-republic-to-provide-ukraine-2/) to Ukraine.

⚡️National Police: 385 bodies (https://kyivindependent.com/national-police-385-bodies-found-in-liberated-parts-of-donetsk-oblast/) found in liberated parts of Donetsk Oblast

⚡️Media: Putin signs annual decree (https://kyivindependent.com/media-putin-signs-annual-decree-on-reservist-training/) on reservist training.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling up military reservists for training in 2023, Reuters reported on May 10, citing a document published on a Russian government website.

⚡️Imagine Dragons releases music video (https://kyivindependent.com/imagine-dragons-releases-music-video-shot-in-ukraine/) shot in Ukraine.
The American pop-rock band Imagine Dragons released a new music video on May 10 that was shot on the front line in Ukraine. [moving]

⚡️Media: Moldova reconsiders ban (https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-reconsiders-grain-ban/) on Ukrainian grain imports.
Moldova's Agriculture Minister Vladimir Bolea said imposing restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports "would not solve anything," media outlet NewsMaker reported on May 10.

⚡️Media: US warns of sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/georgia-plans-to-resume-direct-flights-to-russia/) if Georgia resumes direct flights to Russia.
The U.S. has warned Georgia of economic sanctions if it resumes direct flights to Russia, Georgian media outlet Accent News reported on May 10.

⚡️ Reuters: US authorizes (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-authorizes-first-transfer-of-seized-russian-oligarchs-funds-to-ukraine/) first transfer of seized Russian oligarch’s funds to Ukraine.
The funds belong to sanctioned Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev who has been accused of funding Russian proxies in Russian-occupied Crimea in 2014.

⚡️ RFE/RL: Former Motor Sich head asks (https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-former-motor-sich-head-asks-to-be-swapped-to-russia/) to be swapped to Russia.

⚡️6 killed, 12 injured in Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/6-killed-12-injured-in-russian-attacks-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) against Ukraine over past day.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely recruited 10,000 convicts (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-likely-recruited-10-000-prisoners-for-ukraine-war-in-april/) for Ukraine war in April.

Slightly more again. I don't know if the 610 include the reported Bakhmut counteroffensive's toll.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Zaluzhnyi was not able to participate in the meeting of the NATO Military Committee due to the "tense operational situation", — Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Rob Bauer
"Yesterday I received a letter from the Ukrainian commander — due to the tense operational situation on the battlefield, he will not be able to participate even in the format of a video conference." [I wonder if he was injured]

The Technical Institute of the Polish Air Force's first conclusions indicate that the missile debris near the city of Bydgoszcz originates from the Russian X-55.

Switzerland considers it legally possible to use the money of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to restore Ukraine, the Russian "RIA Novosti" reported with reference to the press service of the Ministry of Economy of Switzerland.

⚡️China declared that it "will not add fuel to the fire" of the war in Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China reported.
In addition, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied that Chinese firms supplied critical components for the Russian arms industry. [despite apparently some evidence to the contrary]

The International Judo Federation (IJF) has removed from the stands fans who came to the World Championship with St. George's ribbons. The IJF reported this in a comment to the publication Inside the Games.

🌾 In the Zaporizhzhia region, people are already sowing the cleared land, — the head of the Municipal Military Administration Malashko
Almost 1,400 hectares of land have already been demined in the Zaporizhzhia region.

The Russian Federation has created "significant defensive strips" to repel the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, —NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The head of the North Atlantic Alliance urged not to underestimate the forces of the occupiers in Ukraine.

Ukrainian defenders managed to carry out effective counterattacks in the direction of Bakhmut. As a result, the Russian occupiers retreated to a distance of up to 2 km in some areas, — Commander of the Ground Forces Syrskyi.

In Poland, the Commission on Geographical Names has decided that Poland will officially call the city captured by the Russians in 1945 not Kaliningrad, but Królewiec.
This name is a Polish translation of the historical name of the city of Königsberg.

The situation for the Russian army in Ukraine is becoming more and more complex, said the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Rob Bauer, Deutsche Welle reports.

The veterans who sat next to Vladimir Putin at the May 9 Victory Parade on Red Square did not participate in the Great Patriotic War battles against Nazi troops. In fact, they are former employees of the NKVD (People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs of the Soviet Union) and the KGB (The Committee for State Security of the Soviet Union), the researchers claim.

German lawmakers approve €1.5 billion purchase of 50 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, — Bloomberg.
The adopted decision is the first step towards the modernization of the German armed forces due to Russia's war against Ukraine.
After an attack by Kremlin forces last year, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the creation of a 100 billion euro special fund to address years of underinvestment in the Bundeswehr.
The first batch of Puma, jointly produced by Rheinmetall AG and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann GmbH & Co, is expected as early as next year.

🤡 Russian Federation President’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia allegedly does not fight in Ukraine, because to fight means to wipe the city off the face of the earth, and the Russian Federation allegedly does not do this.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed a successful counteroffensive by the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut. Ukrainian defenders managed to recapture a two-kilometer section from the Russians. Syrsky noted that competent defense allowed the Wagner PMC to be exhausted, which is why the mercenaries were replaced in some areas by less trained units of the Russian regular army.

We would like to remind you that we recently posted a translation of a conversation with Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia on our YouTube channel
These stories are very hard to listen to, but they are very important for understanding who the real Russians are.
🔗Link:

US sees no signs of Wagnerites' retreat from Bakhmut - Politico
Wagner PMC mercenaries continue to hold a large part of Bakhmut and, despite losses, have enough ammunition to hold back the advance of Ukrainian forces, two American officials told Politico.

Bakhmut, May 9, 2023, the work of the Achilles Company
A Russian soldier threw down his weapon and begged not to be bombed. He was sent a note to surrender and follow the drone. The Russian is afraid to get a bullet in the back from his comrades, but comes to the Ukrainian positions and surrenders

Zelensky said that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive, as the military still needs the promised Western aid.
"With what we have, we can go forward and be successful, but we will lose a lot of people. I think this is unacceptable. We need a little more time," the president said.

The Russian T-62 was spotted with maximum protection

He looks so sad. Living with so much grief.

The International Judo Federation (IJF) has removed from the stands fans who came to the World Championship with St. George's ribbons. The IJF reported this in a comment to the publication Inside the Games.

I have a friend competing there this week, it's good to hear they've done this.

He literally has an entire country's trauma etched on his face doesn't he.

Many years ago I read something by I think it may have been Kipling which linked the imperviousness and nastiness of rulers in Russia with Russian folk tales: in England we had Robin Hood, in Russia there was Baba Yaga... But more importantly, the Brave Little Tailor and the Lucky Third Son and the Cunning Underdog and other such "victory for the little man" ideas were nothing like as frequent in Russian tales, so they tended towards hopelessness in the face of oppression rather than hope.

It's a long time since I read it, but I think that was also where there was a riff on the vampire legends and how people didn't seem to learn from bad experience and let themselves be the victims repeatedly: a vampire couple moved into the village, the villagers finally realised why so many of their children had scars on their necks and were ill or died, so they defeated and drove out the vampires, and then a couple of years later failed to recognise another pair of vampires until after the deaths of a lot of children so they had to do it all over again.... I think Putin is a repeat-vampire, in that way!

Breaking News on Sky - UK looks set to supply Ukraine with long-range missilesBritain appears to be preparing to send long-range missiles to Ukraine - a move that the US has repeatedly refused over fears of escalation.
The UK's Ministry of Defence has issued a notice requesting "expressions of interest" (EOIs) from suppliers of "missiles or rockets with a range 100-300km (62-186 miles)". The notice asks for responses within three days and says suppliers who submit an EOI will be contacted from 5 June.

Response from Russia as expected - Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Britain sending long-range missiles to Ukraine would require "an adequate response from our military".

Response from Russia as expected - Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Britain sending long-range missiles to Ukraine would require "an adequate response from our military"

I'm sure that T-34 can give us an adequate response.

I was just going to say the same thing. If he needs to send the young kids sat behind him the other day, we might have to hug them rather than shoot them.

Sky News now reporting that long-range missiles had potentially already been sent to Ukraine.

Unless the UK is going to do an external buy and then donate to Ukraine about the only system that fits the bill from UK stocks is Storm Shadow (Air Launched, rumoured to be fairly easily adaptable for carriage on Ukrainian aircraft)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

That reminds me, AFAIK nobody ever pinned down the identity those 125 Anti-Aircraft guns that Rish! promised last year......

'I planted myself some cucumbers, tomatoes, and potatoes in the garden, now I'm waiting for rain. There was a shell fragment on the roof.'

Some of you will remember that while almost all of my relatives are in free Ukraine a household are in occupied territory to the West of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson oblast. I found communicating with them sapping and, when we divided up who we keep in contact with and support more, my brother was the one to keep communications with them open (when he could). One got in touch with me today though and updated me on vegetables and Russian troops. The former because the area is one where market gardening is a thing and the latter because they are everywhere around defending the South bank of the Dnipro.

Her English is not perfect but it is a lot better than my Russian.

Back in September people she knew were killed together on a bus that was fired upon (that's what the first comment in this image is about). There have been disappearances, assaults, rapes, theft, people dying from the conflict and because medical treatment for a range of conditions is not available. It all seems like a semi-stable hell where people somehow get by. And they are almost on the front, but there's a stretch of land, then a wide river, between them and Ukrainian forces.

Yesterday I posted that the counter offensive might be put off to await the delivery of more armor. Zelensky said the same thing this morning. Great minds think alike, eh? 😁

Keep in mind the fact that the counter offensive is not going to be like D Day, when everything is thrown at the enemy at the same time. The attacks in Bakhmut may be designed to put the Russians on the back foot and goad them into reinforcing that area, leaving others weaker. Zelensky may also be putting out a bit of strategic disinformation.

Zelensky: Ukraine needs more time to prepare for counteroffensive

god @MMBaranova your poor relatives. What a hellish life at the moment.

Do you know who they assign responsibility for all this to? Is it still to Ukraine or are they angry with Russians?

CNN is reporting that Ukraine has received Storm Shadow cruise missiles from Britian.

Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of the expected counteroffensive, sources say

It's worth noting that the immediate effect of this news will be to create a dilemma for the Russians, i.e., what has to be moved out of range of these weapons? What can't be moved but is now at risk? Of the things that can be moved (like ammunition stores, command posts, etc.), what will the effect be on combat readiness if they are moved? Himars gave them the same problem last year but with a shorter potential target radius. The art of war is giving your enemy difficult problems to solve.

Well done, Britain.