Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

They have never assigned responsibility to Ukraine. Her brother is fighting in the Ukrainian forces. Almost all the young male relatives are. I have little or no contact with those because it is a security risk and I tended to not have so much contact with them anyway whenever I visited in happier times.

My mother's cousin (father of the 20s relative I have chatted with today) was badly beaten up early in the occupation when during a sweep he told the house searchers to * back to Russia.

Back before 2014 I remember them almost all being clearly pro-Ukraine, with some older ones living in a Soviet Union in their head. 2014 and 2022+ made them even more Ukrainian. It's a myth that Russian speakers (like the President) in Ukraine see themselves as Russian. Some no doubt do, or can choose to be if they want (but Russian Russians can view them as not fully formed). Where once things were blurred for many, the events of Maidan, Crimea seizure, Donbas War, Donbas Simmering Conflict and Putin's invasion have made them less so.

Most of my relatives spoke Russian at home and went by First Name, Patronymic, Family name, with the latter two often being ov/ova like you tend to in Russia and Bulgaria. My mother grew up as a Baranova. I use it as part of my name alongside a Spanish one from my father because I'm a mixed up product of the crumbling of the Soviet sphere (born in 1990). The family core (from my point of view) is the Dnipro area, but it seems to be fairly spread out in Ukraine. Towards the edges of the family they spoke Ukrainian at home. Things weren't clear cut. Putin has driven them further away from any attachment to Russian-ness, if they ever had any.

Im sorry, I got you mixed up with someone else who posted whose relatives had been exposed to a lot of Russian propaganda and it had had its effect :(

|Your poor cousin-once-removed. I hope he's recovered now. God, the Russian soldiers are animals.

Things I gleaned that are sharable in addition to what I posted earlier:

Winter was hard to get through. In the absence of mains electricity they get power from their generator, but have to go find oil which is not easy to come by. Life goes on but in an almost suspended way with a numbing stoical survival the priority. The population has thinned out due to deaths, those who did manage to get out and relocation to live with relatives elsewhere in occupied areas. There's almost no regular work where they are. Food supplies are limited and what there is is expensive. While the occupiers have said that the economy is a Ruble one, it is actually running 50/50 locally on Rubles and UAH with online transfers also happening (quite how I am not sure). Alongside oil, bottled water is prized. They have been mostly living in the basement for over a year now. They expect to be liberated, but assume that they might die in the process.

On food availability: 'Bread, canned food, vegetables, meat (but meat is very expensive), sunflower oil'. Bottled water has a premium (they have a bucket and rope well but the water quality is not great).

Priority: 'It wouldn't hurt me to buy fuel for the generator and stock up on food because it will be hell here soon' as the offensive is expected. I rate it as Hell already.

They expect to be liberated, but assume that they might die in the process.

Grim. Grim. It doesn't get much grimmer.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656646453941370883 hackers in temporarily occupied areas

@MMBaranova if it's okay with you I will keep your family in my prayers

It's good that they are not forgotten. As I have said, my brother and I more or less divided up who we keep in contact with and support (apart from keeping in touch, I send money to relatives and to the war effort). If I find the toll of contact from my safety in London difficult at times, it is nothing compared to the grinding reality.

Most of those I keep in touch with report missiles flying by or bombs landing somewhere in their general vicinity because they are not at the front. This trio though are in a worse place.

Tim White found some financial info froma Russian financial site. Not sure how good the site is but he researches his stuff.

Dmitri
ATwartranslated
·
10m

So far, I’m seeing the following: Ukrainian advances in Bakhmut and Soledar area, as well as some vehicle movement in Kharkiv Oblast. No info on south - Crimea etc. All of this is obviously only coming from Russian mouths.

(Soledar was conquered by Wagner some months ago - it was the place DISTRESSING where the time-served Wagner soldier said they'd put old people, a small child and wounded Russian soldiers into a pit and thrown grenades in)

Medved is going bonkers on twitter addressing Polish russophobes and accusing Poland of wanting west territories of Ukraine to expand. Projecting much?

Lots of bots on twitter.

@MMBaranova i saw this today, watched with interest. Testimony of Ukrainians living in Donetsk till 2014 what they describe as military coup.

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1656707353939525656

Lots of noise on Twitter about the Ukr counteroffensive.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656751810537746480?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

As usual we're hearing about it from the Russian perspective. The Russian Telegraph are reporting:

A summary of Russian reports:

1. AFU encirclement operations in Bakhmut near Berkhivka and Yahidne + breaktroughs in the Soledar area.
2. Local succes by the UA army in Mayorsk, near Horlivka
3. Ukrainian columns spotted near Belgorod border
4. UA chemical attack near Orikhiv
5. A Ukrainian breaktrough near Bohdanivka, Bakhmut area.
6. Amphibious units arrived near Beryslav for a Dnipro border crossing
7. Russian units left positions near Klischiivka, south of Bakhmut

Also Tass are saying:

RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY DENIES REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY BREAKTHROUGH ALONG VARIOUS PARTS OF THE FRONT LINE - TASS

And as Saint Javelin points out: Well, if the Russian MoD denies it...

twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1656755308113326099?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

OSINT analyst & military historian Emil Kastehelmi on Twitter ref counterattacks in Bakhmut:

Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they're attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/

At the same time, both Russian and Ukrainian channels are reporting intensifying Ukrainian actions in multiple directions. Russian defence ministry says that the "general situation" is under control, which means that local situations might not be under control at all. 2/

Russian MoD also speaks of AFU actions in the direction of Maloilyinovka. Maloilyinovka is located in the northern part of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian gains might be greater than we know at the moment, and there is a possibility of counterattacks also inside the city of Bakhmut. 3/

I suspect that these are diversionary attacks with both political and military goalsl. If Russia sends reserves to Bakhmut, they might decisively weaken other sectors. If they don't, there's a possibility of significant political humiliation. Both options are good for Ukraine. 4/

twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1656768748823379971?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Thanks for the info - God be with them. And whatever poor civilians are still left there.

@MMBaranova for your family.

You are right notimagain. It is Storm Shadow. Hurray UK for putting Russia on the back foot again. And hopefully Ukraine can have another go at Kerch Bridge

>I suspect that these are diversionary attacks

I think a lot of activity is diversionary. Russian ability to redeploy to meet threats is degraded. One of the stories of Russia's war, from the traffic jam column onwards, has been a slow unravelling of capability.

@MMBaranova it is unimaginable what your family have to suffer. Praying that liberation will come soon.

Thank you for the YouTube link. I don’t go on twitter much as I don’t have the stomach for it.

I said some of this before.
Donetsk is my home town, I moved to the UK long before 2014 but had some family there. My parental grandmother, my uncle and his two adult children. My maternal Aunt, her daughter. My maternal grandmother was dead by that time which turned out to be a blessing. My father with whom I have strained relationship. A lot of old school mates. Apart from my uncle and his family, the rest of my relatives were bought into the Russian propaganda. My mum and my brother who moved to the USA in 2000 (my brother was a teen back then) also, I don’t know how - presumably there is more than one to channel in USA to get your information from.

My Mum is quietly sympathetic with Russia (I do still have a relationship with her, we have always been very close despite living apart for half of our lives), while my brother openly hates Ukraine and calls them nazis. I no longer talk to my brother.
I know my Russia aligned relatives are alive, but in my mind they are casualties of war just the same. The war that started in 2014 for all of us who are from Donetsk. Half of my family is lost to me now. I cut ties because I couldn’t understand their way of thinking and could not despite trying, get them to change their views. I don’t know if we will ever reconcile.

And then there was my parental grandmother. She was Ukrainian and pro Ukraine. In 2014 when the “little green men” invaded (as the couple in the YouTube video described) she was in Donetsk. My family decided to move to Zapprizhya for safety when Donetsk was being occupied. They rented a flat there for my Gran. My cousin and his wife rented one in the same building. One day coming home from a food market (in April 2015) my Gran was attacked by a young drug addicted person who beat her up for her purse. She was fit and healthy and looked much younger than her age, only 75 years old. But the attack was so savage, and medical care in Zaporizhya was very poor at the time, she passed away. She was also a casualty of this war way before 2022.

I know I don’t write here often. Especially lately when a lot of activity and offensives are happening in my part of the country. It’s just too raw. Donetsk, Mariupol, Bakhmut, Olenivka - these were places I knew/ lived for the first half of my life and now they will be in the history books. I dream of the day when I don’t hear about these places in the news anymore. 🇺🇦

sorry that was a lot. Eurovision weekend is making me extra emotional 😭

I pray your family and everyone in the occupied parts of Ukraine will be liberated and soon 🇺🇦

oh @Mb76 I am so sorry. Russia has divided your family in half hasn't it, like a destructive virus. Your poor Gran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive because it is waiting for the delivery of promised military aid.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
• Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.
• Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol as oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church continues in Russian-occupied Crimea.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to conduct localized counterattacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
• Russia needs to produce over 29 million shells per year to satisfy Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demands for Wagner to use 80,000 shells per day – 13 times more than Russia’s pre-invasion annual production rate.
• Russian officials continue to threaten and seek to manipulate international humanitarian efforts by threatening to dissolve the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on May 18.

Extra:
Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia. Two Kremlin sources told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that the Kremlin saw Prigozhin’s attempts to blackmail the Russian MoD on May 5 as a “serious threat” and that Prigozhin is not acting in the Kremlin’s interests.[13] One interlocutor stated that Prigozhin is committed to claiming Bakhmut as a personal victory in order to have influence over the Russian MoD. The Kremlin reportedly expressed further concerns over Prigozhin’s May 9 mockery of the “happy grandfather” figure who is responsible for future Russian generations.[14] ISW assessed on May 9 that Prigozhin was likely referring to Putin, and a Kremlin source claims that Prigozhin’s statement was a direct allusion to Putin. The second interlocutor claimed that Prigozhin’s rhetoric cannot be interpreted as a “direct attack” on Putin, however. Prigozhin attempted on May 10 to downplay his original statements, claiming that the “happy grandfather” did not refer to Putin.[15] The sources noted that Prigozhin’s escalating behavior is likely a result of his inability to meet an unspecified deadline for the capture of Bakhmut. One source claimed that Prigozhin is blaming conventional units in order to avoid accepting responsibility for failing to follow through on his “personal promise” to capture Bakhmut.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine needs more time (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-needs-more-time-to-prepare-for-counteroffensive/) to prepare for counteroffensive.
"With (what we already have), we can go forward and, I think, be successful," said Zelensky. "But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait."

⚡️Russian governors report attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governors-report-attacks-on-oil-depot-energy-facility/) on oil depot, energy facility.
Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of Russia's Bryansk region, said on May 11 that a Ukrainian drone had allegedly attacked an oil depot in Klintsy.
On the same day, Kursk Oblast's governor claimed that Ukrainian forces hit an electrical substation in the village of Tyotkino.

Nataliya Bugayova: Reframing the US policy debate on a 'long war' in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/nataliya-bugayova-reframing-the-us-policy-debate-on-a-long-war-in-ukraine/)

⚡️CNN: UK delivers (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-uk-allegedly-delivers-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/) long-range missiles to Ukraine.
The U.K. has already provided Ukraine with multiple long-range cruise missiles Storm Shadow, CNN wrote on May 11, citing senior Western officials.

⚡️Trump says (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-us-sends-too-many-weapons-to-ukraine-refuses-to-call-putin-war-criminal/) US sends too many weapons to Ukraine, refuses to call Putin war criminal.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump said at CNN's town hall that he would not commit to providing Ukraine with defense assistance if he won the 2024 election.

How Russia has attempted to erase Ukrainian language, culture throughout centuries (

⚡️State Bureau of Investigation searches (https://kyivindependent.com/state-bureau-of-investigation-searches-kyiv-city-council-offices/) Kyiv City Council offices.
Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation searched the offices of the Kyiv City Council on May 11, according to the city council's website.

⚡️FT: US accuses South Africa of giving weapons, ammunition to Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-accuses-south-africa-of-giving-weapons-to-russia/).
The U.S. has accused South Africa of supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia, the Financial Times reported on May 11.
According to FT, U.S. officials are "confident" that "weapons and ammunition were loaded onto the Lady R, a Russian vessel under sanctions that docked at Simon’s Town naval dockyard near Cape Town in December."
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told lawmakers that the matter was being looked into and would be spoken about "in time."

⚡️Russian state media: Fire breaks (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-fires-break-out-at-storage-depots-in-norilsk/) out at storage facility in Norilsk.
3,000 meters of storage facilities caught fire in the Russian city of Norilsk on May 11, according to Russian state media.

⚡️Media: Japan to provide (https://kyivindependent.com/media-japan-to-provide-1-billion-to-ukrainian-refugee-aid/) $1 billion to Ukrainian refugee aid.

⚡️Media: Ukrainian church seized (https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukrainian-church-seized-in-occupied-crimea/) in occupied Crimea.

⚡️Media: Zelensky may travel (https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-may-travel-to-italy-meet-with-prime-minister-pope/) to Italy, meet with Prime Minister, Pope.
President Volodymyr Zelensky may travel to Italy on May 13 and meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis, news agency Ansa reported on May 11

⚡️BBC: More than 300 Ukrainian refugee households risk homelessness (https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-refugees-risk-homelessness/) in UK.

⚡️ Ukrinform: National police database (https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-oblast-police-chief-national-police-database-includes-over-200-000-russian-soldiers/) includes over 200,000 Russian soldiers.
⚡️ WSJ: US trains Ukrainian law enforcement in cryptocurrency investigations (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-u-s-trains-ukrainian-law-enforcement-in-cryptocurrency-investigations/).

Criminal-investigation division of the Internal Revenue Service is training Ukrainian investigators to pursue crypto investigations related to sanctioning Russian oligarchs, according to The Wall Street Journal. in an interview with the Ukrainian state news outlet Ukrinform.

⚡️ WSJ: Russia fines (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-russia-fines-google-for-failing-to-remove-content-discrediting-armed-forces/) Google for failing to remove content discrediting armed forces.

⚡️AP: Abrams tanks for training Ukrainian troops arrive (https://kyivindependent.com/us/) in Germany.

⚡️Zelensky denied (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-denied-eurovision-appearance/) Eurovision appearance by European Broadcasting Union.

⚡️'Strong' explosion heard (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-40/) in Russian-occupied Melitopol city center.

⚡️CNN: Ukraine starts 'shaping operations' (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ukraine-starts-shaping-operations-for-counteroffensive/) for counteroffensive.
Ukraine's Armed Forces have begun "shaping operations" ahead of the long-awaited counteroffensive, CNN reported on May 12, citing a senior U.S. military official and a top Western official.

Higher figures reflecting the Bahkmut localized counter-attacks perhaps.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Advisers to Joe Biden and Xi Jinping discussed the Russian-Ukrainian war, — White House.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Director of the Commission's Office of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met in Vienna to discuss the following:
▫️critical issues of the countries' bilateral relations;
▫️issues of global and regional security;
▫️the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war;
▫️problems of cross-border cooperation.
In Washington, the negotiations were called "open and constructive", the countries agreed to keep this critical channel of communication in the future.

Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui to visit Ukraine and Russia from May 15, — Chinese Foreign Ministry
He will also pay a visit to Poland, France, and Germany.

Zelenskyy dismissed fears of losing US support if Biden is not re-elected in 2024.
According to him, Ukraine has bipartisan support. In addition, the president believes that Ukraine is capable of winning the war before the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held on November 5 next year.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC, said that currently many countries have [pressured] the situation in order to put Ukraine at the negotiating table with the aggressor on Russia's terms.

The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation will soon put on the wanted list the judges of the International Criminal Court who issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children's Ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova, — the head of the Russian Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin.

The Storm Shadow is a long-range stealth cruise missile jointly developed by the UK and France that is usually air-launched. With a range of over 250 km, or 155 miles, it falls just short of the ATACMS that Ukraine has been asking for for a long time.

❗️All Challenger 2 tanks promised to Ukraine have already arrived in the country, — The UK Ministry of Defense

The Russian Federation cannot compete economically with countries such as China, Italy, or Spain; its share is only 1% of the world GDP, said the head of the European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, at the European Summit on Defense and Security.
He noted that, for example, China accounts for 20% of world GDP.

⚡️Poland handed over 14 MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, — Permanent Mission of Poland to the EU

Advisers to Joe Biden and Xi Jinping discussed the Russian-Ukrainian war, — White House.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Director of the Commission's Office of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met in Vienna to discuss the following:
▫️critical issues of the countries' bilateral relations;
▫️issues of global and regional security;
▫️the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war;
▫️problems of cross-border cooperation.
In Washington, the negotiations were called "open and constructive", the countries agreed to keep this critical channel of communication in the future.

🌾 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia stated that the "grain agreement" will cease to exist if Moscow's conditions are not met by May 18: the connection of "Rosselkhozbank" to SWIFT and the free export of Russian agricultural products [blackmail again]

The parties to the so-called "grain agreement" are approaching an agreement on its extension after two days of negotiations in Istanbul, — Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar

Head of EU diplomacy Borrell believes that Beijing remains an essential partner of Brussels, but has already lost the opportunity to act as a mediator in the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine.

Sweden will seek recognition of the "Wagner" group as a terrorist organization in the EU, — the head of the Swedish Foreign Ministry.

❗️The Polish Senate passed a resolution on Ukraine's accession to NATO under an accelerated procedure, Polskie Radio.

Ukraine received $132 million from the World Bank, the funds will go to support the domestic agricultural complex, — the Ministry of Finance.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ukraine received over $30 billion worth of weapons for counteroffensive - Bloomberg.
This includes the coordination of more than 200 tanks, 300 infantry fighting vehicles and other weapons that Ukraine has received since December.

Kremlin "very negatively" assessed reports of UK supply of long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine and wants to find an "adequate" response - Peskov

The Polish mission to the European Union said that the West has already handed over 575 tanks to Ukraine. 325 of them were handed over by Poland. This is followed by the Netherlands (85 tanks), Germany (80 tanks) and the United States (76 tanks). However, they do not specify the types of tanks - the West has transferred both old Soviet tanks and modern Western tanks.
In addition, Ukraine has already received 28 aircrafts. Of these, 14 are Polish MiG-29 fighters.

Former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany and current Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk will head the diplomatic mission in Brazil, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry reports.
Bild writes that Melnyk's appointment demonstrates Zelensky's intention to "urgently improve relations with Brazil."

The situation in the Kherson sector is tense, Russian troops are mining the left bank of the Dnipro River to prevent Ukrainians from crossing the river to further de-occupy the territories, says Humeniuk, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine will receive 31 Abrams tanks in early fall, and that training programs for Ukrainian military personnel to operate them should be completed at the same time.
Austin added that at the end of April, NATO countries and members of the Ramstein Contact Group delivered more than 230 tanks, 1,550 armored vehicles, and other equipment and ammunition to Ukraine to support more than nine new armored brigades.

🪖Ukrainian troops have pushed Russians back in some eastern areas, Volodymyr Zelensky said after the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's meeting.
He did not provide details.

The Defense Ministry will order Ukrainian BM Oplot tanks for the Armed Forces, which are a radical modernization of the T-84U Oplot tank and the newest member of the T-84 series. The agency did not specify how many tanks will be ordered from Ukroboronprom.
▪️51-ton BM Oplot is capable of reaching speeds of up to 70 km per hour, is armed with a 125-mm cannon and can be equipped with two machine guns. In addition, the tank is capable of firing guided missiles.

#Breaking, The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Russian Army has pulled back from the northern outskirts of Bakhmut to “more advantageous positions by the Berkhivka Reservoir.” This means a retreat of several kilometers

sits back to hear Prigozhin's roars and tantrums from here