Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Air National Guard units here are in the process of upgrading from block 52 to block 70, so they might get either. Both are very capable aircraft. They might also get F-15s. And better air to air missiles than their current Russian ones.

Of course there could be a lot of smoke and mirrors associated with the funding statement...for example the RAF used to send folks over to the States on exchange postings funded in part by the US to train on F-15's, F-16 etc, in part to get a feel and insight into how the USAF worked but there was never any intention of the UK getting F-15s or F-16s (shame)...but the exchange of ideas was very valuable.

That said if (big "if") the intention is really is to provide airframes I think there are three major factors in play:

Practically the F-16 is generally considered a more straightforward aircraft than the likes of the F-15 to operate and to maintain.

Politically we know that there many who are keen to avoid accusations of escalation so by supplying earlyish block F-16s the US could claim all they were doing was swopping one fourth'ish generation fighter for another (MiG 29 - F116).

Militarily/industrially there might also be reluctance to put anything too sophisticated into the existing conflict (I'm thinking late block F-16s/F-15s and associated ordnance) for fear of certain technology getting into the wrong hands, either by virtue of espionage or the Russians simply getting their hands on wreckage.

As I said, all speculation from me...I suspect in the short term you are more likely to see the Ukraine Air Force topped up with Russian types from the friendly neighbours, and those neighbours getting the F-16s to backfill, but I'll probably be proved wrong some time soon.

F-116 in the above should read F-16...key bounce.

There are a lot of exchange programs between the US and British militaries. Another example is that every year West Point exchanges some cadets with Sandhurst for a year. In addition to learning how the other side thinks and trains, making those personal contacts can be very useful later.

I agree, it's very hard to predict what is going to be supplied. Some of this may be strategic disinformation too. But I was surprised by the Ukrainians announcing that they would be getting ATACMS missiles with ranges up to 300 KM.

twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547914533787709440

A month ago, these were completely off the table as too escalatory.

This Pentagon briefing hints at them being considered and comes right out and says that they're going to get Excalibur 155mm artillery rounds without naming them.

www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3088129/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

I think a lot of this is due to the relentless Russian attacks on civilians. The gloves are coming off. Whatever the Russians intended, it's not working to their benefit.

I think a lot of this is due to the relentless Russian attacks on civilians. The gloves are coming off. Whatever the Russians intended, it's not working to their benefit.

I do hope so. Apart from Russian attacks on civilians, there is also the deportation of civilians including forced separation of children from their parents which Antony Blinken referred to, as well as food blockade leaving to millions at risk of starvation. So glad the US is stepping up. No other country has the collective political motivation, breadth and depth of equipment and deep pockets to challenge Russia in such short order.

The attacks on civilians are not the by-products of hitting nearby military targets or mistakes, they are deliberate. Sometimes cruise missile deliberate.

I'm a mix of sadness and steely rage. I can always find something to donate to when this happens.

So glad the US is stepping up. No other country has the collective political motivation, breadth and depth of equipment and deep pockets to challenge Russia in such short order.

I agree. I think that Putin's most dangerous enemy now is a bloke from Georgia named Lloyd Austin.

Hi all. I am sending in a lot of first aid into Ukraine for the south coast via ambulance convoy on Monday 25th July. If anyone wants to give something small towards tourniquets and bandages then PM me.

Done. Good luck to the convoy.

Thankyou 🙏🌟

ljsbear - I think you need to do a bit more research into the concentration camps in China. While I totally agree with you about Russia - on just about all human rights indices, China is worse than Russia is. The difference is that so far, China is only dealing with what is deemed "internal".

I have read up, yes, @Wannago. Tibet i also a forgotten horror in some places.

I dislike the Chinese extreme social control and think they are actually a greater threat tothe West. But after what I heard yesterday, in comparison to Russia I still think China is better.

Arestovych said yesterday Ukraine received some M270s. He didn't disclose how many, but said it was "a pleasant amount"

He also hinted that Russia is asking for ceasefire. He couldn't say more until it was public, but needles to say, Ukraine isn't going to agree. Because its not Russia, but Ukraine is the one that hasn't even started yet.

Russia asking for a ceasefire? I'd trust that as much as a glass tower in an earthquake

Quite.
Also, a ceasefire where Russia gets to keep everything it’s taken?
If Russia asks for a ceasefire it’s probably so they can paint Ukraine as the aggressor for refusing.

Known tactic from Russia too. Just at the point Russian advances have stopped.

Theres more fires being recorded BEHIND Russian frontlines than at the front line now too. Noticable change since the start of July.

Very late, but at last:

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are likely emerging from their operational pause, launching ground assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, around Bakhmut, and southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued to defend occupied positions in the Kharkiv City direction to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing toward the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces continued their systematic attacks on civilian infrastructure targeting residential infrastructure, recreational facilities, and educational institutions in Mykolaiv City on July 15.

Chelyabinsk Oblast officials announced the completion of a volunteer battalion on July 15.

Russian occupation authorities continued to institute new societal control measures in occupied territories.

Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have likely killed or wounded four Russian 106th Airborne Division deputy commanders

Special update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-volunteer-units-and-battalions
Last comment: This drive will likely produce “soldiers” of lower quality than the normal conscripts in the Russian army at close to professional-soldier prices.
It is a remarkable expedient that suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to compel his people to fight and unable to attract them to fight voluntarily without considerable incentives

+++

UkrNOW & Kyiv Indep

⚡️WSJ: Chinese tech sellers increase export to Russia amid western sanctions.

Chinese companies have increased the export of microchips and other electronic components and raw materials to cover the needs of the Russian military so that it can continue fighting in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported. Microchip shipments doubled to about $50 million in the first five months of 2022 compared to 2021, undermining the Western push to stall the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

People are leaving Kherson by foot over the fields, through shelling, leaving everythign they own behind.

⚡️European Pravda: The EU announced when to expect the eighth package of sanctions against Russia - The autumn.

A lot of reports of rocket launches, including multiples. It seems the Russian 'break' might be drawing to a close.

⚡️Press Service of the Ukrainian Air Force: The Air Defense Forces shot down four Kh-101 strategic air-to-ground cruise missiles, fired by the Russians over Dnipro City.

❗️In the Odesa region, a missile strike was carried out by Tu-95 strategic aircraft from the direction of Stavropol, the Operational Command "Pivden" clarifies preliminary information

⚡️State Emergency Service: Evacuation from the Donetsk region continues – hundreds of people are leaving the zone of active hostilities

🇦🇿 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused the Russian Defense Ministry of violating guarantees on Karabakh
According to him, representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry promised to ensure the withdrawal of the Armenian military from Karabakh by June, but this agreement has not yet been fulfilled. [what, was he expecting Russia to honour its promises?]

🇪🇪 US agreed to sell long-range MLRS HIMARS to Estonia
The package will include up to six HIMARS missile launchers, ammunition, support equipment, spare parts, and technical support, Reuters says.

🌊 The invaders are trying to restore the work of ports on the temporarily occupied coast of the Sea of Azov in order to organize the export of seized property by sea, the General Staff reports.

⚡️The Insider: In the mosques of Chechnya, men are being recruited into Akhmat battalions to go to war in Ukraine
Men aged 18-40 are offered wages of 60,000 rubles (about $1,000), while being told they will not be taken to Ukraine. Background: On June 7, the Chechen authorities announced that they were sending more than eight thousand men to Ukraine, of whom 1,360 were volunteers.

🇸🇦 During the visit of US President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia, the parties signed 18 agreements and memorandums of cooperation in a number of areas, including energy, investment, and space – the SPA agency
The main thing from the White House statement following Joe Biden's meetings with representatives of the Saudi Arabian authorities:
▪️Riyadh is committed to maintaining the balance of the global oil market in order to sustain economic growth.
▪️The U.S. and Saudi Arabia expand cybersecurity cooperation, as well as the exchange of data on criminals and threats in this area
▪️Saudi Arabia has opened its airspace to all civilian aircraft flying to and from Israel.

⚡️The White House: The United States is working to rid Europe of Russia's energy influence
The U.S. is making significant international efforts to ensure that Europe completely gets rid of any dependence on Russian gas, oil and other energy resources, the U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.

💵 The Financial Times reports that Kyiv is currently working to ensure that the world's largest banks cease cooperation with Russia. These are JPMorgan, HSBC, Citigroup and Crédit Agricole.

❗️According to american national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and based on satellite imagery acquired exclusively by CNN, a Russian delegation has visited an airfield in central Iran at least twice in the past month to inspect combat drones to equip the Russian military.

⚡️Ukraine will receive two batteries of the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system instead of two units, Yuri Ignat, press secretary of the Air Force Command, said

🤝 US and Saudi Arabia agree to help Ukraine with grain exports
"The parties stressed the importance of strategic economic and investment cooperation, especially against the backdrop of the current crisis in Ukraine and its consequences.

⚡️Italian FM doubts Rome can send arms to Ukraine amid coalition crisis.

⚡️Russian Defense Minister orders Russian troops to 'increase actions' in Ukraine.
Russian Ministry of Defense reported on July 16 that Sergey Shoigu has ordered Russian forces to "increase actions" in Ukraine. The ministry also reported that Shoigu “inspected” Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, saying that he “visited a command post” but didn't specify the location or the date.

The Kyiv Independent, [16/07/2022 11:58]
⚡️Ukraine jails collaborator of Russian occupiers.
According to the speaker of the Security Service, Artem Dekhtiarenko, Ukraine sentenced a woman to five years in prison for coordinating a Russian agent network in Ukraine. According to law enforcement, the woman assisted Russian-installed authorities in occupied Kherson Oblast. She has a Russian passport and was captured in the western Ukrainian Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

⚡️Gazprom asks Siemens for documents to transport Nord Stream 1 turbine to Russia.

📉 Gas production in Russia fell to a record low, – The Moscow Times

In Russia, from January 1 to July 15, gas production decreased by 10.4%. The monthly drop in June has already fallen by 30%. In fact, this is the largest production cut in the history of Gazprom.

I’m clicking on pm but it isn’t working. Could you try messaging me please?

Hi @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway I have PMd you hope it worked 🙏

@Hillsmakeyoustrong all done. Good speed your convoy. And thank you for making a difference.

I will not provide a link to this but an Italian journalist has tweeted an interview with the the mother of the little girl who was killed. The little girl who had special needs. Doctors had not broken the news to her as she had lost a leg and been in a coma and they thought the news would affect her recovery and she wasn't strong enough to hear it. The journalist told her that her daughter had been killed.
I won't say what I think as it is unrepeatable

Dear god @minsmum

The scum of the earth, along with the Russian army

Wtf? Did the journalist know the mother had not yet been told? And even if she did not, did she continue with the interview when she realised the mother had not yet been told? What excuse could there be for this monstrous invasion. What sort of person that would even want to listen to this utterly repugnant interview.

Shouldn't the journalist at least be sacked?