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Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

1000 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2022 11:38

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

OP posts:
Thread gallery
74
Ijsbear · 16/07/2022 22:21

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
Ukrainian intelligence says Russia used 70% of its stock of high-precision missiles.

If that is -all- their stock, then they are rather vulnerable to anyone wanting to attack from other directions too, if anyone did. Especially since they are struggling for people so badly.

minsmum · 17/07/2022 00:20

Blueshoes you would think they would be sacked but who knows, they said the mother wanted people to know. I didn't look at the interview it seemed such a gross invasion of the families privacy and voyeurism of the worst kind. They said they thought she knew

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 17/07/2022 00:59

Ukraine will use HIMARS to strike Russian military objects in occupied Crimea - intel

GUR rep Vadym Skybitskyi: Crimea has become a Russian weapons hub & launchpad of the Black Sea fleet; therefore objects there need to be hit to ensure safety of Ukraine
t.co/I69z1bOIUV t.co/PeVMD0ksvQ

I wonder if this will constitute an attack on Russia in Putin's eyes. Pretty sure it will.

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 07:47

Hm, the US must have given the go ahead for attacks on Crimea too, then. Zelensky has always said Ukraine considers it Ukranian.

MagicFox · 17/07/2022 08:25

Is this also in reaction to Shoigu saying they're now going to go in all directions? The news about the mother is sick, really sick blue

OP posts:
TheABC · 17/07/2022 09:44

That's awful news about the poor mother. It takes an utter lack of decency, compassion and empathy to do something so vile for a news story.

If Ukraine successfully attacks Crimea, they could force Russia to the negotiating table in earnest. Putin won't want to lose it or look like he is incapable of defending it.

notimagain · 17/07/2022 10:03

Did the journalist know the mother had not yet been told? And even if she did not, did she continue with the interview when she realised the mother had not yet been told?

I'm afraid this sort of thing has gone on for years.

I was around, so to speak, a few military flying accidents with fatalities in the UK when I was serving.

For the service personnel whose job it was to personally inform next of kin (NOK) it was always a race to get to the spouse/mother/father before the local journalists beat them to the door, and it was particularly difficult if the NOK didn't live on base. As a result sadly they didn't always beat the journalist....

OwlsDance · 17/07/2022 10:05

Ijsbear · 16/07/2022 22:21

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
Ukrainian intelligence says Russia used 70% of its stock of high-precision missiles.

If that is -all- their stock, then they are rather vulnerable to anyone wanting to attack from other directions too, if anyone did. Especially since they are struggling for people so badly.

They've got tonnes of "dumb" munitions though, from what I've read. Enough to last them for several years.

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 10:29

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the cessation of the operational pause, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment that Russian forces are likely resuming ground attacks along multiple axes of advance. The cessation of the operational pause is unlikely to lead to a massive increase in ground attacks across Ukraine but will rather likely be characterized by continued limited ground assaults focused on the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

The Kremlin may have ordered Russian forces to take control of the entirety of Kharkiv Oblast, despite the extraordinary low likelihood of Russian success in such an effort.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults around Siversk and Bakhmut and otherwise fired on Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure across Eastern Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities likely are responding to the perceived threat of Ukrainian partisan activities by strengthening administrative regimes in occupied areas.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [17/07/2022 02:52]
⚡️ Washington Post: Big Tech ignores requests to remove disinformation, hate speech against Ukrainians.
According to research by the Disinformation Situation Center shared with the Washington Post, roughly 70% of posts and 90% of accounts flagged as promoting anti-Ukrainian hate speech on YouTube and Twitter remained active as of late June.
LinkedIn reportedly took down fewer than half of posts flagged by Ukrainian officials as Russian pro-war propaganda.

⚡️ Greek media: Ukraine-operated plane crashes in Greece.
An Antonov cargo plane operated by a Ukraine-based airline crashed near Kavala, Greece, on July 16, reports Greek media outlet Kavala Post.

[I wont post all the details but it does seem as if Ukraine is managing to hold the line except for one small village and the Russian forces, if they can move ahead at all, will only be moving very slowly]

+++

📊 At least 689 missiles have been launched from Belarus since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine

❗️ Ukraine's ecology have incurred losses amounting to more than 200 billion hryvnas resulting from Russia's invasion [the appalling effect on the environment is not really mentioned much]

📌 Partisans in Kherson Region are distributing new leaflets for the Russian soldiers. The warning leaflets can be seen throughout the temporarily occupied city and region, reports the Operational Command "South"

🛢 At the request of the US Saudi Arabia will increase oil extraction from 10 to 13 barrels per day in a span of two months

🗣The head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Haidai: "Two villages in the Luhansk region remain under the control of the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 10:34

There have been reports that Spain is sending stuff but really wants it to be kept quiet.

But Italy and Germany have huge economies and this is a bit depressing. I did think the NL had sent more than that of their defense budget so I do wonder if this is entirely reliable

Ukraine Invasion: Part 28
Natsku · 17/07/2022 11:07

That must only take into account the things that have been sent publicly, with itemised lists. Some countries are sending private shipments, no information about value or contents released.

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 11:30

Yeah, I thought that might be the case.

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 11:48

notimagain · 17/07/2022 10:03

Did the journalist know the mother had not yet been told? And even if she did not, did she continue with the interview when she realised the mother had not yet been told?

I'm afraid this sort of thing has gone on for years.

I was around, so to speak, a few military flying accidents with fatalities in the UK when I was serving.

For the service personnel whose job it was to personally inform next of kin (NOK) it was always a race to get to the spouse/mother/father before the local journalists beat them to the door, and it was particularly difficult if the NOK didn't live on base. As a result sadly they didn't always beat the journalist....

There are journalists that risk their lives in Ukraine and other war torn zones to get the news out and there are utter bottom feeding scum like these journalists who are vampires that suck on relatives' grief and misery to sell stories. Makes me despair.

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 11:56

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 07:47

Hm, the US must have given the go ahead for attacks on Crimea too, then. Zelensky has always said Ukraine considers it Ukranian.

I hope the US authorises Ukraine attacks Crimea, risky as that may be in inflaming Russia. I believe Crimea is now a big Russian military base, has filtration camps and the route for smuggling Ukraine grain and other looted stuff out.

Crimea has to be dealt with. I wonder if it is in range of HIMARS and other long range artillery.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 17/07/2022 12:17

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 11:56

I hope the US authorises Ukraine attacks Crimea, risky as that may be in inflaming Russia. I believe Crimea is now a big Russian military base, has filtration camps and the route for smuggling Ukraine grain and other looted stuff out.

Crimea has to be dealt with. I wonder if it is in range of HIMARS and other long range artillery.

Absolutely @blueshoes agree whole heartedly

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 12:37

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 10:29

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the cessation of the operational pause, confirming ISW’s July 15 assessment that Russian forces are likely resuming ground attacks along multiple axes of advance. The cessation of the operational pause is unlikely to lead to a massive increase in ground attacks across Ukraine but will rather likely be characterized by continued limited ground assaults focused on the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

The Kremlin may have ordered Russian forces to take control of the entirety of Kharkiv Oblast, despite the extraordinary low likelihood of Russian success in such an effort.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults around Siversk and Bakhmut and otherwise fired on Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure across Eastern Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities likely are responding to the perceived threat of Ukrainian partisan activities by strengthening administrative regimes in occupied areas.

+++

The Kyiv Independent, [17/07/2022 02:52]
⚡️ Washington Post: Big Tech ignores requests to remove disinformation, hate speech against Ukrainians.
According to research by the Disinformation Situation Center shared with the Washington Post, roughly 70% of posts and 90% of accounts flagged as promoting anti-Ukrainian hate speech on YouTube and Twitter remained active as of late June.
LinkedIn reportedly took down fewer than half of posts flagged by Ukrainian officials as Russian pro-war propaganda.

⚡️ Greek media: Ukraine-operated plane crashes in Greece.
An Antonov cargo plane operated by a Ukraine-based airline crashed near Kavala, Greece, on July 16, reports Greek media outlet Kavala Post.

[I wont post all the details but it does seem as if Ukraine is managing to hold the line except for one small village and the Russian forces, if they can move ahead at all, will only be moving very slowly]

+++

📊 At least 689 missiles have been launched from Belarus since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine

❗️ Ukraine's ecology have incurred losses amounting to more than 200 billion hryvnas resulting from Russia's invasion [the appalling effect on the environment is not really mentioned much]

📌 Partisans in Kherson Region are distributing new leaflets for the Russian soldiers. The warning leaflets can be seen throughout the temporarily occupied city and region, reports the Operational Command "South"

🛢 At the request of the US Saudi Arabia will increase oil extraction from 10 to 13 barrels per day in a span of two months

🗣The head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Serhii Haidai: "Two villages in the Luhansk region remain under the control of the Ukrainian government.

@Ijsbear thanks again for the takeaways

"Greek media: Ukraine-operated plane crashes in Greece.
An Antonov cargo plane operated by a Ukraine-based airline crashed near Kavala, Greece, on July 16, reports Greek media outlet Kavala Post."

I was a little disturbed by this and saw more details in the Daily Mail (sorry, I know):

"A Ukrainian cargo plane carrying 'dangerous explosives' crashed in Greece last night, video shows.

The aircraft's eight crew members, all Ukrainian citizens, were killed, Serbia's defence minister said. The Antonov An-12, owned by Kyiv firm Meridian, exploded in a burst of flames while it was flying from Serbia to Bangladesh with mortar and training shells on board."

I don't think the cargo was meant for the Ukraine military if the destination is Bangladesh. Still a terrible tragedy though.

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 12:39

Oops, didn't mean to quote the entire takeaway but always good to see it again.

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 12:58

It all seems a bit odd, that crash, but phew if it wasn't carrying stuff for Ukraine. Bangladesh isn't at war.

Thanks for the info!

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 13:19

Good thread by Mike Ryan with a short, broad analysis of what's happening and what might happen

twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1548579072896544768

thereisonlyoneofme · 17/07/2022 13:47

In the news today that Russia are using a nuclear plant to stockpile weapons !

blueshoes · 17/07/2022 14:40

thereisonlyoneofme · 17/07/2022 13:47

In the news today that Russia are using a nuclear plant to stockpile weapons !

Is it the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine?

WSJ ran an article on it earlier this month:

"Russian Army Turns Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant Into a Military Base
Land mines and missile launchers are deployed at Zaporizhzhia, as cameras and instruments go dark and workers are held for ransom
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station is under control of the Russian National Guard.
July 5, 2022

The Russian army is transforming Europe’s largest nuclear power plant into a military base overlooking an active front, intensifying a months long safety crisis for the vast facility and its thousands of staff.

At the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine, more than 500 Russian soldiers who seized the facility in March recently have deployed heavy artillery batteries, and laid anti-personnel mines along the shores of the reservoir whose water cools its six reactors, according to workers, residents, Ukrainian officials, and diplomats. The Ukrainian army holds the towns dotted on the opposite shore, some 3 miles away, but sees no easy way to attack the plant, given the inherent danger of artillery battles around active nuclear reactors.

The new infusion of weaponry effectively shields the plant from a counterattack by Ukrainian forces, and amounts to something the carefully regulated atomic-energy industry has never seen before: The slow-motion transformation of a nuclear power station into a military garrison. In a lesser-scrutinized aspect of its war strategy, the Russian army is day-by-day positioning the weaponry around a nuclear plant that is among the world’s largest, using it to cement control of the front line where their advance through southern Ukraine ground to a halt.
...
“They are keeping it like a base for their artillery,” said a European official posted to the nearby city of Zaporizhzhia, which remains in Ukrainian control. “They understand that Ukraine will not answer their attacks from the plant.”

“It seems like this is one of the Russian tactics, to take critical infrastructure and use it as a shield,” said former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk. “We’re not going to storm the plant….The only way to do it would be to surround it, to take the surrounding areas, and ask them to leave.”

Zaporizhzhia employees and their families fear the plant’s growing militarization could lead to another accident just 300 miles from Chernobyl, scene of the world’s worst nuclear disaster. “They don’t understand what might happen because of their actions there,” said the wife of one worker.
...
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian state energy company Energoatom, which still manages the plant, said Russian troops were threatening to drain the cooling pools to find any weapons they suspected Ukrainian resistance fighters had hidden underwater. That could pose a serious challenge to the plant, which relies on a steady flow of filtered water to cool its reactors and spent fuel rods.

As their occupation grinds on, some Russian soldiers stationed at Zaporizhzhia have turned to a strategy of routine extortion: kidnapping some of the 11,000 plant workers for ransom. More than 40 people are currently being held captive, say plant workers, with families using group chats on the social-media messaging app Viber to share pictures of abducted personnel and crowdfund their ransoms. At the plant, their colleagues complain they are having to work extra hours to cover the shifts of kidnapping victims.

“Please help me,” one man posted to a Viber group, sharing photos of his heavily bruised face and right leg, his right eye bloodshot. Russians would only release him, he added, if he raised 50,000 hryvnias, equivalent to $1,681, within three days.

“Such cases are by no means isolated,” said a plant worker who recently fled the area for unoccupied Ukraine. The workers being held for ransom include his friend, an instructor of safety protocol who also provided psychological counseling for the plant’s staff. “No one wants to be next,” the worker said.
...
Nuclear safety specialists say that without independent experts visiting the site, it is difficult to assess the various risks that Russian land mines, artillery and loosely disciplined soldiers pose to the plant’s two active reactors. The takeover of an active nuclear power plant is unprecedented and presents a series of complex, interlocking questions, such as whether the mines around the reservoir could damage the filters that sieve the water pumped into the reactors."

What can I say, the R F__kers.

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 16:26

God, what a nightmare for Ukraine to navigate. This one is too big :/


⚡️ Russian authorities are working to abandon the international SWIFT system

Economic Adviser to President of Russia Maxim Oreshkin said Russian authorities would meet with representatives of Türkiye next week to discuss payment adjustments.

ScrollingLeaves · 17/07/2022 17:15

I have just been catching up. Thank you for your takeaways, Ijsbear.
What a difficult predicament, and a dangerous one, at the power plant.

On the radio just now they said, unfortunately, the Russia has bombed somewhere in Odesa where US missiles were being stored; and also a Ukrainian plane and helicopter were shot down in the east.

Has anyone wondered if the plane that crashed over Greece might have been sabotaged?

Natsku · 17/07/2022 17:16

That's terrifying about the nuclear power plant, just needs one cock up by an inexperienced or drunk or tired soldier and the whole place will explode

Ijsbear · 17/07/2022 18:29

Ive wondered that too Scrollingleaves

Damn :( about the missiles and plane and chopper

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