Unrolled thread @EHunterChristie
unrollthread.com/t/1547869128421044224/
1-10 I'm assuming we are now, in a certain sense, in or on the edge of WW3, with Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine in direct analogy to Nazi Germany's war of aggression against Poland in Sept. 1939.
2-10 In the two world wars, very powerful states chose to wage wars of aggression with the strategic objective of achieving a new global order and a new global balance of power, more favourable to them, and motivated by deep resentment at the existing status of rival powers.
3-10 Putin's complete disrespect for human life is an integral part of the war. You don't get a radically new global order without killing millions of people, and a leader not prepared to kill millions would never aim to bring about a new global order by force.
4-10 What happens next? One view is a global war in slow motion. This is what Moscow's opponents seem to hope for, as they are afraid of speed and what that might trigger. Military aid, but not too much. Sanctions, but one step at a time. Defences up, but not too fast.
5-10 One could make the case that Putin's Hitler-like revisionism became obvious with his 2005 speech on the collapse of the USSR being the 'greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century'. The key was that the speech explicitly referenced Russians in post-Soviet states.
6-10 A common error is to blame 'NATO expansion'. Wrong. Hitler is preparing his revenge. The wise know what is coming. They seek a place under the security umbrella before Hitler comes. That is the essence of NATO enlargement, a mutually agreed widening of who gets protection.
7-10 The idea of a WW3 in slow motion can be seen from 2014 onwards. What Putin does in 2014 is a copy of Hitler's actions against Czechoslovakia in 1938. He knows it. We know it. The only people who don't know it are journalists. Point is, we want him to slow down.
8-10 We did slow Putin down in 2014, but we did not use the time wisely. It's not that democracies never prepare. We were wise during the Cold War. But over 2014-2021 we prepared very little, and we limited Ukraine's preparation. In WW3 as in WW2, weak postures invite aggression.
9-10 Powers in Eurasia writ large are mostly taking a softly supportive stance towards Moscow, whereas smaller states directly threatened are either already subdued, or fully defiant and ready to fight. That divide cuts through Europe itself and is compensated by our alliances.
10-10 Soft support: China, India, Iran, Turkey Pulled away from soft support: Germany, Italy, France Ready to fight: Poland, other NATO Eastern Flank WW3 hinges on what the offshore powers do. WW3 is ultimately against them, primarily the US, secondarily the UK.