Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Support for "special operation" in Russia fell by 9% - down to 55% from 64 in May.

This organisation, Chronicles, do regular phone interviews since the beginning of war. They've done the 6th wave end of June/beginning of July, but for some reason it's not on their website yet, although I've seen a summary in a few places (none in English sadly). You can read their previous ones here, hopefully they'll publish the latest one in the next few days.

www.chronicles.report/en

In short, although the support for war is relatively high, only 8% of respondents said they would give up 10% of their income to support the army, and two thirds said they wouldn't give anything up. Every 7th who have supported the war before, are now either against or at least in doubt. 55% said that Russia's victory would be meaningless to them, and only 3.3% support the actual goals - "demilitarisation and denazification".

That -is- good news!

Regarding the quieter artillery attacks by Russia, they have said they are taking a pause. So it might be a mix of this 'pause' and the effect of HIMARS.

God I wish the US would send more.

ISW Key takeaways

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to deploy to Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted failed ground assaults north of Slovyansk and around Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Siversk and west of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued targeting Ukrainian rail lines on the Eastern Axis.

Russian forces attempted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces prioritized defensive operations on the Southern Axis as Ukrainian forces continued targeting ammunition depots.

Russian occupation authorities are increasing financial incentives for civilians working in occupied Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities may be setting conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainian children in occupied territories to Crimea.

Kyiv Indep:

⚡️Intercepted call by SBU shows Russian troops failing morale.

In a conversation between Russian soldiers one of them who has been reportedly fighting somewhere in Kharkiv Oblast, said that their unit continues to suffer loses. According to the speaker, due to constant attacks from the Ukrainian army, many soldiers do not want to participate in future offensiv

⚡️IMF to reduce expectations of global economic growth due to inflation, COVID, and war in Ukraine.

Further info about the volunteer battallions:
⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia begins 'volunteer mobilization' to solve soldier shortage issues.
The U.S. think tank said in its July 13 report that in an attempt to continue war efforts, but prevent general mobilization, Russia called upon its 85 federal regions (including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to create "volunteer battalions" through high pay and benefit incentives. Each region must provide at least one unit with the volunteers, men up to 50 years old, signing up for six month contracts. The experts cited Russian media who confirm the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in 10 oblasts, including the city of Moscow, in late June and early July.

⚡️Russia attempts to bomb Snake Island with Su-27 fighter jets.
Ukraine's Operational Command "South" reports on July 13 that two Russian fighter jets attempted to strike Snake Island but failed as the bombs landed in the sea.

[I don't think anyone is going to be able to hold Snake Island for quite some time]

UkraineNOW

🔗 Ukraine can comply with the EU recommendations even in a state of war, said the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine Matti Maasikas.

🔗 The European Union and 43 other countries supported Ukraine's intention to sue the Russian Federation under the Genocide Convention, – EEAS press center
"We reiterate our support for Ukraine's petition to bring proceedings against Russia in the International Court of Justice under the 1948 Genocide and Punishment Convention," the statement said.

📍The Russian military began to prepare for the fact that hostilities would begin directly in the occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region. Also, local residents report that the Russians are moving equipment and people from the city closer to the Azov coast in order to protect at least part of the weapons from the crushing blows of Ukrainian defenders.

🗃 The European Union has begun discussions on the seventh package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but restrictions on Russian gas will not be included
Petr Fiala, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic (the current EU Council country Presidency) stated this in an interview with Reuters.

Note that in the UK Inteliigence update, they say The ageing vehicles, weapons, and Soviet-era tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regaining or building momentum unless used in overwhelming mass – which Russia is currently unable to bring to bear.

Yeah the "pause" was bs apparently, as after capturing Lysychansk, Russian army kept going towards Siversk and other towns - it thought the momentum would get them through. It obviously didn't happen.

Same thing happened when Putin declared they should just seal Azovstal - they still kept bombing it.

God I wish the US would send more.

I really think the constraining factor here is supplying the huge number of rockets they need and the vehicles that support them. And crew training. It does no good to have 50 HIMARS if you can only support 15 of them.

There are also quite a few M270's (the larger, tracked system) that fires the same rockets either there already or on the way. They have more firepower per vehicle but are less mobile.

Don't despair about the HIMARS. I think they're going in as rapidly as the whole system can be setup to absorb them.

The so called volunteer battalions from the regions, in my view is a covert mobilisation. Regions will probably get backhanders for effectively press ganging the poorest and most vulnerable men in these regions. The ones unable to pay for a solicitor or with money and family to escape the ‘volunteering’.
i get that Russia sees strength in numbers and bodies on the battlefield but in modern warfare surely it is more about weapons, technology and the skill of the soldier. For example, Russia has already sent overwhelming troops to Ukraine and it hasn’t been very effective. UA strategy seems to be to get motivated soldiers professionally trained with the latest and most suitable equipment. How many ‘volunteers’ from the region do you need against a trained team behind a himar?
I think that Russia’s strategy of just chucking bodies in is ineffective and shows a lack of training, discipline and weaponry.

mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1547353427751075841
scarecrow of Russian soldier hung in Kherson, it looks quite scary, seemingly it's the third one put up. The Russians had to remove the others themselves

That's scary.

But scroll further down a bit and there is a fresco of Putin and Zelensky in a spoof of Michaelangelo's The Creation of Adam. Gave me a few laughs.

@minsmum · Today 10:43
That scarecrow is a simple but effective way to send a chilling message.

@blueshoes I couldn’t scroll down to the Michelangelo/Putin spoof as I don’t have Twitter and the scrolling ‘snaps’. I’ll try to find it though, it sounds funny.

I did see an urgent warning that there will be a Russian trap to implement Ukrainians on an act of terror. Did you see that? If so, do you think it is credible?

mobile.twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1547314223285501952
Ukrainian flag raised in Moscow district, brave people

Aye, no point sending 'em if there's no rockets! .... presumably the US has made enough rockets though?

I did see a comment by an experienced general that in just about all wars, 100 x more ammunition is needed than expected ...

I take your point though =)

Rather depressingly apparently the world coverage over the invasion has dropped massively. But at least the commitment of the US and EU remains pretty well firm.

@Ijsbear for your update today, I appreciate it.
@MissConductUS your added details about the US weapons are very helpful, thank you.
@OwlsDance and @Ijsbear, I hope you are right about the ‘pause’ really meaning the Russians feel weakened for now.

All the analysts seem to think so. Militarily, financially.

They could still win in Ukraine but goodness me, it's really not the 3 day takeover with flowers they expected is it?

Plus Russia itself has started to self-cannibalize its senior govt members again.

Tweet’s been taken down I think. In any case it won’t load.

Aye, no point sending 'em if there's no rockets! .... presumably the US has made enough rockets though?

Stockpile numbers are secret, for obvious reasons. Someone on twitter reviewed DOD budgets and determined that the US has purchased about 50,000 of these rockets in the last twenty years. Quite a few were used in Iraq and Afghanistan. So a conservative estimate would be that half remain. The US Army places a high priority on readiness, which includes having abundant stockpiles of ammunition. There are also other NATO countries that use these weapons and have their own stockpiles to contribute from. Lockheed Martin is also ramping up production. So I don't think ammunition is a long term constraint. That said, the rockets are expensive. They need to be saved for high value targets.

On the supply of M270's, according to this article, the UA already has 12 and 3 more are on the way.

The United Kingdom and Norway agreed to transfer the M270 MLRS to Ukraine

There are some good pictures in the article. Each M270 carries two pods with six rockets each, compared to one on the HIMARS. Each fully loaded pod weighs 2.5 tons. That's one reason why the logistics are challenging.

@ScrollingLeaves here you go

Russian missile fired strike nowhere near the front lines.

Twenty killed, dozens hurt in Russian missile strike on central Ukraine - Zelenskiy

www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-strike-kills-12-ukrainian-city-vinnytsia-emergency-service-2022-07-14/

@blueshoes · Today 14:06
Thank you for that. I really am laughing. The art work is well done too - that’s why it works so well.

Each fully loaded pod weighs 2.5 tons. ye god!

thanks for the explanation =)

++++

People looking atTwitter please be aware there's a very distressing foto circulating at the moment after the Vinnytsia bombing.

I think Germany has promised to give another 3 M270 too.

@Ijsbear
Te: the Vinnytsia bombing.
I heard on the radio that children have been killed.

It is outrageous that the Russia fires missiles anywhere they choose in UKraine, but it is thought taboo for Russia to get the equivalent back.

I wouldn’t actually want this to escalate, or tit for tat children’s deaths, but this is so wrong.

Another summary of relative aid to Ukraine by country:

app.23degrees.io/view/c0trxasK3ET7wU98-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure-11_csv

I agree @ScrollingLeaves. I struggle to cope with the images on Twitter, it makes me feel panicked and despairing and so frustratingly powerless

steady breathing magic. Seriously it helps. And doing what you -can-, whatever that is. Posting here helps actually, I suspect there are a lot lurkers who pick up info even if they don't post and there are some really good discussions.

Personally I think life generally is a lot less certain than we generally think, and once you're aware of that it's a matter of learning the tools to live with the knowledge. You can't ever truly go back, only onwards.