Ukraine Invasion: Part 28

[MagicFox]

Thread 28 begins, thanks all for the company and resources

Good advice @Ijsbear

Germany has been very, very slow to deliver the things that they have promised Ukraine. That may be political (i.e., not pissing off the Russians to the extent that natural gas deliveries stop), or it may be down to the very low state of readiness of the German military. Or both may be a problem.

I decided to look at what the timeline is for the Germans to deliver the promised M270s. They are delayed until "winter" as they need a software update. This is not credible, as a software update should be quite straightforward and not require months of work.

twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1534616573738098689

During the cold war, Germany had a robust, functioning army. Now they can't be arsed to keep their weapons operational.

This isn't my aisle, so to speak, but when this M270 delay story broke a while back some elsewhere pointed out that the fine details of the UK/US and the German diverged a year or so back due to some upgrades to the German systems.

Whilst I'd agree that another delay in the provision of German ordnance sounds very suspicious objectively the upgrade to the German system may genuinely not be as simple buying and applying a UK/US compliant patch.

militaryleak.com/2021/07/13/german-army-upgrades-mars-ii-mlrs-e-with-new-fire-control-systems-and-gmlrs/?amp

That's certainly a possible explanation, but the article goes on to state that the Germans purchased 1,818 rockets compatible with the new fire control system. They should supply those with their M270s instead of waiting for some sort of engineering change.

The US is also supplying the M31 and M32 rockets that the article says the new fire control system is compatible with. In any case, if they can't be used in Ukraine, how would they be of use to the Germans if they needed them?

my IT ridiculously savvy German companion agrees with you notimagain

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@WarMonitor3
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1h
Portugal transfers to Ukraine every tenth "M113A2" armored personnel carrier it has in service

Since Ukraine is now asking for APCs this is very useful. I've heard it said that they need them to go into Kherson.

Don't disagree with your thoughts, just recall reading a fairly deep discussion elsewhere maybe a month back that was going into details of munition sub-variant and compatibility, etc...I'll have to see if I can find it again.

They killed a SEN child today. They must be so proud.

just recall reading a fairly deep discussion elsewhere maybe a month back that was going into details of munition sub-variant and compatibility, etc

This was probably to do with cluster munitions, which the Germans won't deploy. The Lockheed M30 employs submunitions, but as far as I know, only the M31A1 and M31A2 rockets are being sent to Ukraine. They both have a 200 pound unitary warhead.

Correction, the US is sending a mix of M30 and M31 rockets to Ukraine. The German fire control system is likely incompatible with the M30s.

www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-patrol-boats-more-himars-in-new-u-s-aid-package

warning distressing detail

The journalist Sarah Ashton-Cirillo has posted a picture, unblurred, of the very small girl who died today in the bombing. In full, graphic detail.

I am so angry. That photograph will never be deleted from the net, the mother or the father or siblings/aunts/uncles/grandparents might be coming across it for the rest of their lives.

"Bitch" is the word that comes to mind, thinking that The Greater Good justifies devastating a devastated mother/family further.

I fully agree @Ijsbear

It is deeply unfair that Russian can shoot where it likes and yet Ukraine can't cross the border. It's human nature to want to lash out and extract an eye for an eye. In this case, it would also be counterproductive.

Right now, support for the "special operation" in Russia is apathetic. The spring draft for the army only returned 40% of its estimated numbers - people just don't want to go to Ukraine. Putin has called for each region to contribute another BTC's worth of soldiers to make up the difference and I suspect they will press gang whoever they can get to join up.

Now imagine what will happen if there is a well-known attack on a town or city within Russia's borders. It will galvanize them. Russia has always been "us against the world," and now they can point to a specific incident. It would be a gift to Putin and an excellent excuse to mass mobilize.

Ukraine will win this fight and they will have help afterwards to rebuild. Russia on the other hand is likely to be an international pariah for a long time to come.

Agree

In addition there a several tweets showing the reaction of presumably ordinary russians. Utter scum

@TheABC · Today 20:37
On Channel 4 News tonight about the three missiles striking Vinnytsia, they said so far they had found 22 dead and 100 injured.

Three of the dead were children. They showed one case of a child who was killed and it is just unbelievably sad.

I hope Russia will set not up a galvanising incident ABC.

@paradyning ing · Today 19:42
They killed a SEN child today. They must be so proud.

There are no words.

@TheABC totally agree with you. It rubs me raw but I agree.

There would also be huge repercussions among both allies of Ukraine and the silent towering presence of China.

This is interesting - about Germany essentially building Russia's most modern military training facility

twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1547226267883393024?t=DtDwRIf4eeOTe55Aw1ntnw&s=19

The denial just makes me despair though. The Russian woman quoted in Belgorod saying Russia should harden its response and fire a missile at Kyiv, as if they haven’t already done so multiple times. BBC on Belgorod strike

I wonder if Russia’s supporters elsewhere in the world have a more realistic view.

From UkraineNOW

🔎 Most of the citizens of neutral Switzerland began to advocate rapprochement with NATO. The full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine has led to a rethinking of Swiss security policy

If this is true, and it's unconfirmed atm, this is amazing!

+++

ISW Key Takeaways

Russia continued its campaign of systematic attacks on residential areas in Ukrainian cities with strikes on Vinnytsia, Kharkiv City, and Mykolaiv City.

Russian forces continued efforts to advance on Siversk but their progress is unclear.

Russian troops conducted limited ground assaults around Bakhmut and Slovyansk but made no gains.

Chechen Leader Ramazan Kadyrov claimed that one of the four new battalions he has been forming deployed to Ukraine.

+++

⚡️Ukraine seeks to evacuate 600 civilians from monastery in Donbas.
According to Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence, the Ukrainian government is trying to establish a ceasefire and open a humanitarian corridor for pilgrims and other civilians from the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️German firm seeks to exchange 30 armored vehicles for weapons supplies to Ukraine.
A spokesman for German arms maker Rheinmetall said that 30 Marder infantry fighting vehicles are being modernized to prepare them for the exchange.
The spokesman added that Rheinmetall can easily increase the number of Marders to 100 as part of the exchange scheme

⚡️Germany's Baerbock rules out easing sanctions on Russia.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on July 14 that lifting sanctions will not guarantee the gas supply from Russia but will make Germany even more vulnerable to blackmail by Moscow.

⚡️Latvian parliament: Russian gas supply to be suspended in 2023.

⚡️Germany to allocate additional 2.4 billion euros in aid to Ukrainian refugees.

⚡️US Treasury continues to allow Russian transactions related to agricultural commodities, medicine.

⚡️Naftogaz requests freeze on debt payments.
Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz asked its creditors to defer debt payments until July 2024.

⚡️Official: Ukraine will not disclose official number of military casualties until end of war.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on July 14 that Ukraine will not disclose the official number of military casualties until the end of the war. Maliar cited potential harm of using the information on casualties to further inform Russian analysis and strategy as the reason for the lack of government data.

⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia likely preparing larger-scale offensive along the Sloviansk-Siversk-Bakhmut line.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops regroup to resume offensive in Kramatorsk direction.
According to Ukraine's military, Russian forces continue to focus on the Soledar and Bakhmut directions in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia is also trying to strengthen the air defense of its rear bases and units, the General Staff reported.

⚡️Moody's: Belarus in default payment.
The international rating agency Moody's stated on July 14 that payments on the foreign debt of Belarus in local rubles mean it's entering default.

The Kyiv Independent, [15/07/2022 09:35]
⚡️Canada expands sanctions against Russia.
The Canadian government has expanded sanctions against Russia's oil, gas, and other industries. The new measures also extend to computer, electronic and optical equipment products, and may affect pipelines' production.

+++

⚡️ Belgian Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès has resigned

📝 The United States and Israel signed the "Jerusalem Declaration"
It says that both countries are ready to use all elements of their national power to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. For this, even the armed forces can be involved.

🖇 The European Commission suggested that the EU countries conclude an agreement with Azerbaijan on increasing natural gas imports – Reuters

📌 The EU ambassadors held consultations on a new package of sanctions against Russia. It should include: a ban on the import of Russian gold, a ban on the export of high-tech and dual-use pharmaceutical products to the Russian Federation, closing some loopholes to circumvent sanctions, updating the lists of members of the oligarch family.

⚡️ Acting head of the Kherson regional military administration Dmytro Butriy said that in total, Ukrainian defenders liberated 44 settlements in the region

❕Artillery systems and MLRS provided to Ukraine by the US and other allies have become an important factor on the battlefield and are gradually changing the course of the war. In addition, the Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to use them correctly – CNN

⚡️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine will strike with anti-ship missiles if the Russian Federation goes on the offensive from the Black Sea, said Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny
According to him, now Russian ships do not dare to approach the Ukrainian coast, so they are at a distance. Zaluzhny also said that the Ukrainian military can track the preparations for the launch and the launch of missiles only with the help of Western allies. [the Vinnytsia attack was launched from a submarine]

💡The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday, July 14, passed an $840 billion bill that would increase President Biden's requested Pentagon budget by $37 billion. Both parties in Congress decided to increase military spending amid new threats from Russia and China – The New York Times

@Ijsbear
Thank you for your takeaways.

Zaluzhny also said that the Ukrainian military can track the preparations for the launch and the launch of missiles only with the help of Western allies. [the Vinnytsia attack was launched from a submarine]

Do you think allies will be allowed to help? After the big battleship was sunk, apparently after the U S helped locate it and someone in the US stupidly told everyone, there seemed to be fears that this sort of help could mean escalation.

I hope they can though. It is an outrage that Russia can blockade the Black Sea as though it were theirs, and use their ships a launch pad for firing missiles at Ukrainian cities.

Would be interested to hear reports on this thread: twitter.com/ehunterchristie/status/1547869128421044224?s=21&t=hJArLhXjnLu7d5D6UMy7bA

Thoughts not reports, sorry

Kamil Galeev: "Daily reminder that Putin's army of invasion was trained on the Rheinmetall-built training centre Mulino. In 2014 they "left" and construction was finished by "Гарнизон" company, probably a proxy. 100% of its imports came from Germany, last Rheinmetall shipments coming in 2019
...
Russian media was pretty open about it back then. See an article from 2011 kp.ru/daily/25636.4/800905/ Now their straightforwardness may sound weird. Back then it was normal. Russia really started to hide its degree of cooperation with Western (German mostly) partners only after 2014
...
Mulino was finished in 2020 (FYI: the last Rheinmetall shipments are dated by 2019). My sources say though that Mulino doesn't meet the planned standards. Russian proxies were stealing too much. Otherwise Russians might have the NATO-level training centre
...
Once again, I urge the media to investigate the Rheinmetall AG role in preparing the Putin's army for the war. That includes their connections with the Гарнизон company which was finishing the construction after the Rheinmetall "left" Mulino in 2014. Question CEO Armin Papperger

I also urge the media to investigate:
1. Other (German) suppliers of "Гарнизон" which was building Putin's training Mulino
2. German politicians who allowed this to happen. Did they do it knowingly? That must be investigated

Putin's war machine is fully import dependent. It was supplied from all over the world. In very rare cases it had such exotic equipment suppliers as Turkey, Brazil or China. Most equipment however is Western/Japan/Tigers. It's not Chinese. And most importantly, German

No other nation bears so massive and so direct responsibility for preparing Putin's army for this war as Germany. In this regard I find German stance quite cynical. It were your companies that armed Putin and your politicians that allowed it to happen. Investigate them. The end"

Kamil Galeev is highly critical of German company Rheinmetall AG's role in training the Russian war machine, even continuing to facilitate the completion of this training facility after the 2014 invasion. I wonder how many more instances are there of other German companies doing the equivalent. It explains the perceived foot dragging by Germany in saying the 'right' things but behind-the-scenes putting their economic interests first. I get that Germany is in a difficult position having allowed themselves to be so dependent on Russian energy, and supported Ukraine in other ways but their promised actions/inaction have facilitated and is prolonging the war in Ukraine and adding to Ukraine's stress.