Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

@mpsw

Thanks for the further info on overnight temperatures - that source goes lower than the one I had been consulting.

Im led to believe the last week has been much better.

I think it worth point out the the Ukrainians seem to be releasing information from the area in terms of success and intelligence but a lot of it is at least a week old (some of it longer). They also seem to have a little less pressure at Mykolaiv generally even though there has been an offensive there.

Ive noted that journalists have started reporting from the area in the last day or two as well which suggests that a certain about of confidence that the situation is currently under control and theyve beaten back the Russian offensive (indeed everything to suggest a counter offensive down to Kherson currently happening).

My feeling is that theres generally an overall pattern that given the report a certain amount of credibility.

Its definitely in contrast to less good news in Chernihiv.

Onceuponatime
Re EU summit, I’m sure I read something that uk was invited but Boris fucked it up and offended so the invite was withdrawn. That could well have been speculation or opinion I read rather than fact though. I can’t remember where I read it. Also was Liz trust invited? Or was that a different meeting a week or two ago she was invited to? Or am I making that up?

Johnson was never invited to the EU Council meeting, he said he was open to attending but his speech put a stop to that.

I know many people for whom an EU defence force would be a step too far, just as anything beyond economic integration was too much for them. Those aren't my views, I think greater integration would benefit the whole EEA and EU.

I agree, the priorities would have been different from those led by NATO dominated USA. The USA is extremely unlikely to ever see a land army rampaging across its territory but for much of Europe this is a distinct possibility, as we are now finding out.

@borntobequiet

I don't understand why Putin kicked off in February

I understand it isn’t a good time to launch a campaign in that part of the world. He can’t have done much consulting with the military beforehand.

It seems that Putin hasn't consulted his Military at all? Poor timing (weather wise), awful comms (radios - my son who has done a bit of Cadets couldn't believe Russian troops were using open radios) not enough food or fuel, incorrect & aging equipment...

ps thanks for the new thread @PestorPeston

Rory Cellan-Jones @ruskin147
Extraordinary letter in @ft from former UK defence attaché at Moscow embassy - we warned you about Putin but you listened to the City instead

EU defence force wont happen. Hungary already had put the breaks on that.

A European force including the UK. (possibly uk led actually) is a possibility though I think with each country having an opt in or out or contributing to financially. (US may contribute financially too). I'd also through Canada into the mix as a potential player.

I can't keep up with these threads anymore. Just seen this horrifying tweet.. mariupol still no water?? How many days /weeks now? Wtf

mobile.twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1506238246178721799

"
Bill Neely
@BillNeelyReport
Horrifying reports from #Mariupol; thirsty people draining water from radiators; streams contaminated by rotting bodies; dogs feeding on corpses; people eating dogs & scavenging for food in bombed buildings. Apocalyptic nightmare in a place where, 1 month ago, life was normal.
11:55 AM · Mar 22, 2022"

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK has warned that Ukraine is starting to run out of weapons.

Poland is expelling Russian diplomats accused of spying. A Polish civil servant has also been arrested on spying charges.

One of the Americans facing charges relating to the storming of the Capitol has successfully claimed asylum in Belarus. I hope they give him the opportunity to defend his principles by sticking him in the army and pointing him at Ukraine.

Afp news agency @afp
#BREAKING Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats for espionage: official

And there we go. Thats what the smoke was about.

@HeadPain

I can't keep up with these threads anymore. Just seen this horrifying tweet.. mariupol still no water?? How many days /weeks now? Wtf

mobile.twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1506238246178721799

"
Bill Neely
@BillNeelyReport
Horrifying reports from #Mariupol; thirsty people draining water from radiators; streams contaminated by rotting bodies; dogs feeding on corpses; people eating dogs & scavenging for food in bombed buildings. Apocalyptic nightmare in a place where, 1 month ago, life was normal.
11:55 AM · Mar 22, 2022"

I believe there is no running water because it requires a pump and there is no electric. ..? Is there really nothing that can be done to fix this situation? Obviously there must not be , because they would have done it by now. I'm just a nobody idiot on mumsnet.

Perhaps the EU should do swapsies: Ukraine for Hungary?

I wonder how many Russian diplomats we will expel…….personally I’d have sent all the Russian embassy diplomats home but I know nothing about how possible that is or if it would ruin diplomatic stuff.

@HeadPain it’s heartbreaking and horrifying. I read some of the comments in response to that tweet yesterday, mostly all trying to say it was lies and couldn’t be reality. I get that it’s easier to cope with if you claim it’s not real.

Lbc is reading out that letter right now I think @RedToothBrush

Orban in Hungary is a hardliner who has Russian/autocratic leanings so hardly surprising he's vetoed an EU defence force.

The American who has asked for asylum in Belarus is a strange one. Why would you flee the US for Ukraine then go to Belarus? As implausible as it may seem, is he on the Russian payroll?

@RedToothBrush

Rory Cellan-Jones *@ruskin147* Extraordinary letter in *@ft* from former UK defence attaché at Moscow embassy - we warned you about Putin but you listened to the City instead

Nothing surprising in this letter. My experience from senior military connections over the last few years has been one key thing to focus on - Putin. The biggest threat to the West and democracy above all else. They have been aware for a long time.

www.ft.com/content/af7996a9-8c16-4421-a5b3-390315d3c7dc

@WeAreTheHeroes

Orban in Hungary is a hardliner who has Russian/autocratic leanings so hardly surprising he's vetoed an EU defence force.

The American who has asked for asylum in Belarus is a strange one. Why would you flee the US for Ukraine then go to Belarus? As implausible as it may seem, is he on the Russian payroll?

I think the American guy just has illusions about what a dictatorship under a great, strong, uuuge leader actually looks like. Is that the guy who was sentenced for storming Capitol last year?

Yes, I think you could well be right @forinborin. Probably delusional and thinks he will be treated as some sort of hero.

The really funny thing is that he thinks / hopes that his wife may join him.
In Belarus, from the USA

@EsmaCannonball

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK has warned that Ukraine is starting to run out of weapons.

Poland is expelling Russian diplomats accused of spying. A Polish civil servant has also been arrested on spying charges.

One of the Americans facing charges relating to the storming of the Capitol has successfully claimed asylum in Belarus. I hope they give him the opportunity to defend his principles by sticking him in the army and pointing him at Ukraine.

The turkish drones are rumoured to have flown from Istanbul to the airport in Poland closest to the border.

I think the weapons isn't isn't just how many, its getting them to the right place and in the right time frame.

I think there's been some talk that its taking a while to get a lot of stuff therr and be distributed on the ground this week.

My suspicion is bottle neck and logistics issues rather than simply not enough.

Im also very worried about food supplies generally. Not just to cut off areas or occupied areas.

There are significant issues with people being displaced - normal deliveries in even places like Lviv are going to be hard to keep up with.

Is that the guy who was sentenced for storming Capitol last year?

I think he is still wanted by the FBI and has been on the run ever since.

^max seddon
@maxseddon
I think this is the first major admission of how taken aback Moscow was by western sanctions.

Lavrov: "When they [froze] the central bnak reserves, nobody who was predicting what sanctions the west would pass could have pictured that. It's just thievery."^

"Just thievery" ... from Lavrov :D

I wonder if any of the oligarchs actually genuinely believe any of the slimy shit they're spewing?

@WeAreTheHeroes

Orban in Hungary is a hardliner who has Russian/autocratic leanings so hardly surprising he's vetoed an EU defence force.

The American who has asked for asylum in Belarus is a strange one. Why would you flee the US for Ukraine then go to Belarus? As implausible as it may seem, is he on the Russian payroll?

I think he's just a fucking idiot. 🤷‍♀️ Rather than on Russia's payroll.

Putin advisor Chubai quits over Ukraine. This seems quite big? www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/putin-adviser-chubais-quits-over-ukraine-war-and-leaves-russia

[quote MagicFox]Putin advisor Chubai quits over Ukraine. This seems quite big? www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/putin-adviser-chubais-quits-over-ukraine-war-and-leaves-russia[/quote]
I think he was rather a notional figure (prominent in 90s, but no real power). The climate change office in a largest exporter of fossil fuels is, errr... a sinecure rather than an actual job.