Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

I find the stressing over back tracking on cannot remain in power quite emphasised

Seems odd to go out string then row back so much

But I suppose it’ll pass as just another small thing

@Ijsbear

One thing that is not reported in our press is how heavy the Ukrainian losses are, btw.

Yes I noticed this has anyone heard anything? I can’t remember if I made it up but I’m sure I saw about 1200 military personnel but not sure if that was pure I joined the army pre invasion or with those who stayed or if they are counted as civilian

Most of what is reported is no independently verified, and certainly contains omissions or other unreliable aspects

There are major PsyOps going on, and one is to give succour to Ukrainians by reporting everything about Russian forces as gong badly and the leadership,as out of touch and incompetent. Whilst saying nothing about losses of Ukrainian military personnel and kit, and praising the leadership and citizenry.

I dont' mean to suggest there's anything wrong with that - it's an arm of the campaign - rather just to observe that it is happening

Autumnwater i think i heard the other day that the Ukrainians manpower is thought to be at 90% strength or just above. Which is slightly above the level of loss to the Russians but not by a huge amount. There have been a few bad losses: there was a bomb on a military barracks in Mykolaiv last week and there was similar a night or two ago towards the East of the country I think (i forget where). Think this was in a Pentagon briefing. Generally speaking the comments I've seen thought they were faring well considering but were at risk of over doing it if they tried to counter attack too quickly.

However this isn't accounting for civilian losses - noting that there is a substantial irregular army in addition to the regular army.

The Ukrainians also have been perhaps better placed to make use of abandoned Russian equipment as they have the support and civilians skills available to do things like use a tractor and tow.

The Ukrainians having been dug in has been massive advantage up to this point, but going forward with the roles reversed that becomes a lot more challenging and they too are likely to start running into greater logistics problems.

@meditrina

Most of what is reported is no independently verified, and certainly contains omissions or other unreliable aspects

There are major PsyOps going on, and one is to give succour to Ukrainians by reporting everything about Russian forces as gong badly and the leadership,as out of touch and incompetent. Whilst saying nothing about losses of Ukrainian military personnel and kit, and praising the leadership and citizenry.

I dont' mean to suggest there's anything wrong with that - it's an arm of the campaign - rather just to observe that it is happening

There is most certainly something wrong with it. All the lies we hear every day. A handful of men with millions at the top manipulating everyone else. The elite priming cannon fodder as a pp mentioned. ‘Twas ever thus.

I think that the Russians hitting multiple fuel storage facilities over the last couple of days might be particularly problematic. It also may make it harder for civilians to flee if fuel availability becomes more difficult. This also has ramifications for the delivery of other equipment and food.

Worth keeping a keen eye on this factor.

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
The Ukrainian counter offensive in the East is partly significant because it was that part of the country where various Russian propagandists and useful idiots (Ritter, Ehrlich, Roggio etc.) had convinced themselves Russia was planning a huge encirclement of Ukrainian forces...

I think this is the area to watch most closely to see if Russia does decide to redeploy more troops in this area or whether there is a collapse there. Or the reverse is true and the Ukrainians start to run into problems.

This is useful. MOD map just published. Note the Russian MD grouping feeds towards Sumy (where there has been that troop withdrawal) and also the northern part of the Eastern front. Sumy troops could well be headed to the area to concentrate more there and to try to do that encirclement.

@RedToothBrush

I think that the Russians hitting multiple fuel storage facilities over the last couple of days might be particularly problematic. It also may make it harder for civilians to flee if fuel availability becomes more difficult. This also has ramifications for the delivery of other equipment and food.

Worth keeping a keen eye on this factor.

Well err, yes ..you are perfectly correct…

If you look back that point was made yesterday when questions were first asked about whether the the Lviv attack signaled a change in the Russian emphasis.

Not really it doesn’t - hitting POL (Petrol, Oil, Lubricants) facilities in campaigns like this is standard stuff because as you rightly say potentially screws up transport, both for combatants, refugees and logistics.

To add to all the logistics love on this thread, I doff my hat to this guy:

Ukraine's wartime rail chief has to be faster than the Russians tracking him
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60755198

I am wondering where all the military hardware we are sending to Ukraine is coming from . Somewhere there must be a huge increase in production of missiles etc which we havent needed before. Do we make our own stuff or is it outsourced ? (Not to China I hope !!)

@thereisonlyoneofme

I am wondering where all the military hardware we are sending to Ukraine is coming from . Somewhere there must be a huge increase in production of missiles etc which we havent needed before. Do we make our own stuff or is it outsourced ? (Not to China I hope !!)

Anybody’s guess where all the sub-components originate, (especially anything semi-conductor related…

The Javelin anti-tank weapon is mostly an American product

www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/javelin-missile

FWIW The shorter range NLAW (the British anti tank weapon that has been delivered in big numbers) is made in Northern Ireland but has links back to Bofors (Sweden) and the Thales group (French).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_Light_Anti-tank_Weapon

Big unanswered question AFAIK is how quickly can they be produced, and have the deliveries made a hole in Britain’s (MODs) own stock..

"Quit smoking. Otherwise you die and will not witness Putin's death" - a very clever anti-tobacco warning in Ukraine.
twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1507838014873088009

[quote PerkingFaintly]To add to all the logistics love on this thread, I doff my hat to this guy:

Ukraine's wartime rail chief has to be faster than the Russians tracking him
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60755198[/quote]
Respect to this man Oleksandr Kamyshin, 37, chairman of Ukraine's railway network:

"Before joining the railways Mr Kamyshin was a financier but he is now one of the most important men in the country. In a few weeks he has gone from reforming the rail sector to a wartime director of operations.

"All people in Ukraine were businesspeople, farmers and all other professions before the war started. Now all people in Ukraine are at war. All of us have started doing war," he says.

His own life is a blur of rail journeys, stopping at one place to talk to local staff, at another to meet government officials, and constantly in contact with the senior leadership in Kyiv.

Mr Kamyshin is convinced he is a target for Russian forces. He hasn't seen his wife and two young sons since the war started nearly three weeks ago.

Not only do the railways keep refugees moving, they also deliver tonnes of aid to the embattled areas of the country, transport troops to frontline cities, and continue to export whatever Ukraine can produce in these wartime conditions. A Russian blockade has closed the key ports in the south."

Azerbaijan MOD @wwwmodgovaz
On March 25, during the telephone conversation between #Azerbaijan Defense Minister Col Gen Zakir Hasanov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the situation in the territory of Azerbaijan, where the Russian peacekeeping forces are temporarily stationed, was discussed.

Seems like someone is alive then.

The rest of the messages from the Azerbaijan MOD about this, haven't been terribly complementary to Russia.

@blueshoes Fergal Keane's reporting on the role of the Ukrainian railways have been eye opening. The staff are amazing and hard working. The tracks are repaired as quickly as possible if they are damaged by shelling, etc. At the time that report first came out, 31 railway workers had been killed.