Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

Both sides are playing the infowar/dealing in propaganda so it’s worth looking at any tweet Russian or “friendly” with your sceptical or BS filters in place

Absolutely. What particularly raises my suspicions is when reports or tweets etc. are embellished with lurid detail that cannot be proved true or not. The war is horrific enough, people are suffering terribly, there is no need to invent things.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

I don't understand why Putin kicked off in February

Apparently (a)he was asked by China to wait until the Olympics were over,
(b) dry frost is easier for the heavy machinery, (c) he probably thought/was told it would be all over in a matter of days.

Now he is probably getting antsy, because the May holidays are approaching and there is no end in sign, and it will be huge humiliation if this mess isn't sorted by then.

Completely agree with notimagain's previous post. Truth is always the first casualty of a war. I spent some in a country where I learned not to take anything at face value.

Also was a feeling that Europe would not put sanctions in place because of energy fears in the winter.

True.

@notimagain

I have been here since the first thread.
There's are lots of anxious people on these threads and I'm keen to point out to them, please don't take people too seriously on here because we are all ramdons on the internet.
That's exactly what we are.
The chatter here is reflected everywhere, everyone everywhere is saying the same stuff!

Secondly some poster's seem extraordinarily arrogant as well so I guess it's a reminder all around that what we are all wondering about is ;
When will this war end, how Will it end and why.

No one

Absolutely no one knows that answer.
That's the point.

Personally I think these threads are great and am very appreciative of the amazing info gathering, the expertise (seemingly) of certain posters.

But at the end of them day we.are people chatting randomly

Chardonnay indeed

Omission is the greatest lie

Btw re Ukrainians with frostbite. Yes real possibility how a couple of points.

1. Less equipped Ukrainians are tending to defend from settlements, so at least some protection from elements available. The Russians are out in much more exposed places.
2. The Ukrainians have been preparing for a long time for this. Take a look at photos of Ukrainian soliders. What are they wearing? Not just posed photos but generally. There is a marked difference between what the Russians and Ukrainians are wearing. We know they have been getting advice from NATO for some time and have been trained on logistics and first aid to a degree that the Russians haven't. The British army train with the Norwegians for a reason. It stands to reason that they probably will have given more consideration to the problem than an army which doesn't have a leader, doesn't do logistics and had a plan for a war which so few people knew about.
3. Frostbite has to be a bigger consideration in terms of fleeing civilians and civilians trapped in places. Particularly the elderly.

I strongly suspect its an issue for Ukrainian soliders too, but I do very much think its liable to be a more debilitating one for Russians soliders. Particularly since it will help sap morale they don't have to begin with.

@PaperTyger

Chardonnay indeed

Omission is the greatest lie

In a way omission was very helpful back in the days.

If you see that someone's name was missing, from example of a piece about Politburo sitting, or party congress, then you know he's in trouble and so on.

Tactically we know the Ukrainians did their homework on the Finnish strategy of Motti-ing convoys. Do we think they'd overlook clothing in this context? They'd prioritise it.

The Ukrainians did all their home work very well.

They certainly seem to have prepared well, and know what they are doing. No way would they not make sure of appropriate clothing. Whereas many of the Russian troops likely did not even know they needed to prepare, thinking they were just going on exercises, or would be welcomed in with open arms.

.

Thanks for the further info on overnight temperatures - that source goes lower than the one I had been consulting.

[quote Alexandra2001]@notimagain Very difficult to find a way through the propaganda, all sides will portray themselves in the best possible light or not, depending on the objective.

But the reality is, Russia can produce dumb weapons at an alarming rate and has a huge number of troops to call upon, it is also slowly advancing on Odesa and that is something we really do need to stop, the 100s trapped in that theatre in Mariupol are still there and are dying of starvation.

Russia saying it wont rule out Nukes is no surprise, would the UK or US say under no circumstances we wouldn't use them either?

NGO's in Poland are saying its taking days per refugee to process people who want to come to UK, with a 9 page form demanding things like mortgage deeds work records etc etc its almost as if we don't want them to come here at all.....[/quote]
Is the form you're referring to one that has to be filled in by the refugee?
I filled in three 9 page forms, one for each Ukrainian we're sponsoring. They were long winded but not too difficult.
Now I've had an email from the council asking for the adults in my house to submit their details for a dbs check, proof of who we are - uploading council tax form, passports etc and I'm told we'll have a home visit.
Certainly no request on this side for proof of work or mortgage so far.
The red tape in onerous but I accept that they want to make sure both parties in this equation are safe.
I'm impressed you've managed to get two Ukrainians and a dog across so quickly ljsbear I was hoping our Ukrainian guests would be in the U.K. this week but it's looking more and more unlikely.

Max Seddon

I think this is the first major admission of how taken aback Moscow was by western sanctions.

Lavrov: "When they [froze] the central bnak reserves, nobody who was predicting what sanctions the west would pass could have pictured that. It's just thievery."

twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1506567320650620930?s=21

@mpsw
I generally go to Windy.com as it is more reliable than the Met Office/BBC. I think Windy is based in Slovakia or Slovenia. I have also found the Polish weather bureau good for forecasts, but Windy is awesome on the graphics.

@TiddyTidTwo good luck and thank you for volunteering. I hope it helps to be actually doing something. It’s awful just watching it unfold.

Re EU summit, I’m sure I read something that uk was invited but Boris fucked it up and offended so the invite was withdrawn. That could well have been speculation or opinion I read rather than fact though. I can’t remember where I read it. Also was Liz trust invited? Or was that a different meeting a week or two ago she was invited to? Or am I making that up?

Re war crimes, putin and Russia don’t give a shit about whether their actions are allowed or not. They’ve already crossed that barrier. Ukraine Im assuming will be following most of the rules.

Re refugees we are being shit with all the red tape, I’m disappointed but at least we are consistent and hate all refugees. The Ukraine sponsorship program should be opened up to include all refugees imo people fleeing Syria may slow down/stop with if all the troops are moved to fight Ukraine but there’s still Afghanistan and other conflict zones around the world.

@Ijsbear good luck with settling the refugees and thank you for having them. I’d be happy to bung you a couple of quid towards that laptop, let me know of you decide to try and sort it.

Re frostbite: I’ve seen, unverified tweets with photos, stating that Russian soldiers are stealing Ukrainian socks and boots, as identified by the UA military tags. They speculated/hoped form a clothing supply store rather than from people. My thought to that was I hope they’re not dressing up in these to try and pass themselves off as ua. Thicker/warmer/better suited to protect from cold/frostbite would be a less worrying reason in my head.

Haven’t been on here in a while but just place marking.

Also noticing that the war seems to have slipped down the news stories somewhat lately, has anyone else noticed this?
It’s not the first story on the news at the moment and not showing up on my social media as often at the moment.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief thank you for having them and good luck with getting your refugees here, I’m glad they’re checking your household for safety too but I do wish some of the red tape could be removed. I think IJsbear is not based in the uk.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief Oh I'm glad they are doing dbs checks and home visits - that's the kind of red tape that is needed for sure

@PaperTyger

There's are lots of anxious people on these threads and I'm keen to point out to them, please don't take people too seriously on here because we are all ramdons on the internet.

If I could just pick up on that without hopefully appearing to pick on you or appear arrogant.

Yep, we are all randoms but there’s a bit of a worry at times that on this subject in particular some posters seem to insist that nobody here could possibly have any different level or knowledge to anybody else..

It’s an odd assumption to make to my eye because many on Mumsnet in general run of things are happy to take input on anything from pets to politics to parenting without quibbling too much about randomness, experience or even arrogance.

OTOH because this is a nasty horrid topic there seems to sometimes be a degree of denial and a reluctance to accept that some randoms here might genuinely bring a bit more insight and knowledge to the topic than others because they have might have had some training and experience in aspects of the dark arts…

@Jisforjelly

Haven’t been on here in a while but just place marking.

Also noticing that the war seems to have slipped down the news stories somewhat lately, has anyone else noticed this?
It’s not the first story on the news at the moment and not showing up on my social media as often at the moment.

Yeah I’ve noticed that, it’s still first on c4 nightly news but it’s not got anything like as much time given to it. Also yesterday there were a few presenters on lbc who only mentioned it in passing or had an interview with someone in the middle of calls about other things and once the interview was done went quiet on Ukraine again.

@Jisforjelly
Part of this could be due to press having to relocate inside Ukraine and not having access to as much frontline detail. And part could be the UK press generally moving onto topics that put the Govt in a better light as there have been some monumental gaffs over recent days (Wallace's spoof and Boris's comparison to Brexit).

[quote TargusEasting]@ljsbear - could you crowdfund for that equipment? You might achieve it by lunchtime.[/quote]
Now that's a good idea. Im treading carefully as they are clearly very proud and self-sufficient people but Ill offer after a few days.

@ Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway thank you very much for the offer. I'm waiting until they've found their feet and to see if they feel comfortable with the whole idea. As I say, they're clearly very proud.

About the benefits, in theory they should receive between 60 - 70 euros a week each but our local council hasn't decided how/if/what/when yet rolleye

@DesdamonasHandkerchief am in the Netherlands. It's not really a homing beacon for Ukrainians, though there's quite a lot here already judging by how long we have to wait for the appointment to get them registered! There's insane red tape here but it's kicking off once they are already here, not before.

About the 100s trapped in that theatre in Mariupol - I fear the trapped people are already dead. No one could get near them to rescue them after the first ones got out / were rescued, because of Russian street to street fighting and unless the water was still working, they'll have had nothing to drink. If there is water somehow, it's Day 7 now too and food will have run out and children don't have the fat reserves of adults. Plus it'll be icy cold. I pray, I pray that this is wrong but I can't see very much hope at all.

@notimagain

But in this context, you can understand that some people are terrified of things going nuclear?

It's really crucial to remember what one posters says or concludes doesn't mean anything?

With specific regards to you, again your opinion is another random on the internet but you seem to have experience with aircraft.

Your post's are really interesting and informative. I certainly enjoy them but even when you shed light on various air crafts stuff that still doesn't mean you know more about where this is going than anyone else at all

It's natural that it doesn't have the prominence it has had at the moment. We have a picture of the situation for people in different circumstances caused by this invasion. Significant events are being reported and certainly the BBC is reporting on Mariupol daily, although they have very little new information as there are no reporters on the ground. There are fears that Chernihiv is going the same way.

I'm a remainer myself - I know many people for whom an EU defence force would be a step too far, just as anything beyond economic integration was too much for them. Those aren't my views, I think greater integration would benefit the whole EEA and EU. We've well and truly shot ourselves in the foot by leaving and the burden of additional red tape and higher import and export costs is exacerbated by the rise in the cost of living.