Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

@Goldenbear

Lots of people have endless time on here to contribute and seemingly don't go to work so maybe the two are correlated. Maybe it is their work- maybe they are political pundits. It's not really clear and an AS doesn't make it clearer. I have been reading what I think is informed material by Bob Seely. You need to ensure you question credentials of things you are reading, perhaps dip in and out of Mumsnet thread on this which is not to say it is not a good quality thread oj parts but we can't constantly be in blind panic as it will make us ill.

It does seem at times like this thread is a parallel universe where we’re constantly on the brink of nuclear war. Can’t say that the tone in most other sources is quite so apocalyptic.

I did catch a bit of R4 world at one and it seemed very calm in comparison

Turkey offering to host Putin and Zelensky - breaking news on the BBC.

Gutted. The ones selected for military service were all born in 2004. Of 106,000 born that year 19,000 are being enlisted and a further 8,000 are doing education (think that means they do it after university, dunno for sure). So I get to keep my spam and peaches.

Yes but what are the planes indicating

The Swedish Defence Minister says they are having meeting (COBRA kind of thing) and expect to have a full report on the 'change of security situation' ready by ... the 31st May. Yes you read that right, 31ST MAY! Clearly they're not too stressed about it all.

@Goldenbear

Yes but what are the planes indicating

I am very confused about the planes and where the info is coming from about them?

A country very close geographically to Sweden has just invaded its neighbour, I think a reassessment of the security situation is only natural.

Going to need a new thread soon!

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

The Swedish Defence Minister says they are having meeting (COBRA kind of thing) and expect to have a full report on the 'change of security situation' ready by ... the 31st May. Yes you read that right, 31ST MAY! Clearly they're not too stressed about it all.

Hopefully this calms some people down. We're not at immediate risk of escalation, as some are suggesting.

New thread

Ukraine Invasion Part 14 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4507382-ukraine-invasion-part-14

@Igotjelly

A country very close geographically to Sweden has just invaded its neighbour, I think a reassessment of the security situation is only natural.

Especially seeing as Putin's been eyeing up Gotland, one of our islands for quite a while now. They've been 'accidentally' straying into its terroritory for years now. Although the submarine incursion wasn't a submarine and was just farting herrings fucking with our sonar.

The only thing we know is 'something is happening'. For this to end, something has to happen.

So something happening means that we are progressing forward to a conclusion, whenever that might be. Things stagnanting aren't good for Ukraine anyway.

If we consider options here: Ukraine winning, Putin going nuclear or Russia having a massive economic catastrophe and internal strife ALL require Putin to turn up the volume. He is going to make a fuss and fight for his survival.

This is scary because we don't know what scenario we are looking at. He has to be taken down kicking and screaming cos he's not going to just back down cos we say he's a war criminal.

I think i interpret something happening as a neutral thing rather than a bad thing for this reason.

Im at wtf rather than wanting to hide under a rock.

I think there's a lot of noise but not action. Not quantifible.

I think the thing thats caught my eye most is Lavrov was either sent packing or called home. Either China is pissed off or Putin is panicking.

And the news of a general being fired, isn't a sign of being in control.

This is what the best intelligence, best psychologists and military strategists will be looking at. They are trying to work out what Putin's stooges who got there by not being an internal threat rather than cos of their smarts are up to. It's theoretically a mismatch as long as we see it through the right lens...

So trust in that...

Information on the planes is coming from FlightRadar24, as tweeted by twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1504374496358187014

The thread covers likely reason from sending Generals home after a meeting, a test flight (lets face it Russia's trucks were a bit ropey), to getting ready for nuclear war. The planes had there transponders turned on, so not exactly a secret mission.

The UK is currently also carrying out manoeuvres, some planes can be tracked on FlightRadar24 and some can't. Before anyone get hysterical - the MoD published the exercises some time ago. I'm sure they have been tweaked for the current situation but they are not a sign of imminent attack.

Thank you @ClaudineClare

Overall I'm fine but the minute people start talking nuclear I get myself into a state

@holliem91

Thank you *@ClaudineClare*

Overall I'm fine but the minute people start talking nuclear I get myself into a state

Are the West doing something? Not talk. Not military exercises. Something massively out of the ordinary? No.

If you look at the brinkmanship gaming about upside down thinking and how the West has repeatedly gone for desecalation in the face of intimidation, what would Putin do? Try and get the West to do the same.

We don't know who is calling whose bluff in a sense or whether it will escalate further.

But we also can not let off the pressure either. (cos of reasons discussed yesterday over radicalisation).

Im not panicked. Concerned yes. But im still not into the idea that nukes are inevitable. Purely because sitting in your bunker for the rest of your life barking orders at your limited number of staff, isn't a scenario that I can see even Putin himself fancies much.

There won't be a nuclear war!!! If it happens we all die including all the Russians.
I actually believe we should be getting militarily involved but I can't say that without people saying how stupid. Putin is crazy but he is not the one handling nuclear weapons.

I'm annoyed with myself for worrying for the first week when it was a new unfolding situation. I couldn't even eat food at a Michelin star restaurant 😩 something I rarely do and as a special treat. For the sake of your families and your enjoyment of life, stop thinking this is going to happen if it does we all die anyway. It won't though, Putin is not as powerful as he's made out.

I find this thread v useful as often MNetters are often amongst the first to post breaking news. Also, I’m not on Twitter etc so glad to have others posting relevant tweets and wider sources. Let’s remember that it was bloody Putin who first rattled the nuclear sabre, not anyone posting here concocting it out of thin air. That said, he’s never seemed insane so I’m going with the psych ops analysis that suggests this is intimidation tactics rather than an actual threat. Still, he’s a man who doesn’t like losing so how a golden bridge can be built and whether he’d take it is anyone’s guess.

He has a bunker no doubt for him and all his people, wives, children and mistresses no doubt. But in case of being attacked. He is not going to destroy earth in order to win. It doesn't make sense! There will be noone to won against and noone to lead.
North Koreans regularly threaten South Korea and Seoul is not far from the border. Trump threatened Iran. Its what they do! But we have nukes too and they know that.

Thank you for the reassurances everyone.

I do have a rational brain and an irrational one.

The rational one tells me he was terrified of catching covid so doesn't seem like the type who wants to die but then at the same time if he feels he has nothing to loose then why not? But I'm also aware that it's not Putin with a big red button next to him (thankfully) and that it goes down a chain of command before any attack would actually happen and that those people have loved ones who they wouldn't want to see die etc. I also know this is a very effective scare tactic and it works.

The irrational brain tells me what if he is insane and won't stop until he gets what he wants and if he still doesn't get what he wants then he'll think fuck it (but then that goes back to the chain of command who would have to follow his orders). We know he's feeding his people absolute BS, so what if he manages to pull it off that way (I don't know how but I have visions that they

Hmm if they are thrashing out a peace deal, why are people on here suddenly more worried ab out nuclear war?

And why are the fuckers still bombing schools and makeshift shelters with "CHILDREN" written large round them?

Bonkers.

Sorry posted to soon...

I have visions that they will all agree with him because of his propaganda and think nuclear is the best option.

All I know is, I really really don't want to die. I want to protect my DD and I want to watch her grow up.

I can follow this war closely and not let it get to me too much but as I mentioned previously, the minute nuclear war is brought up I start to really panic.

I've missed what's suddenly kicked off the nuclear panic!