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Original poster

Ukrainian invasion part 13

999 replies

Alexandra2001 · 15/03/2022 07:40

Seems to be required.

OP posts:
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18
AgnesWestern · 17/03/2022 12:44

This is really worrying Sad

Nothing we can do except hope and pray it’s not what we think.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:46

Anders Aslund @andersaslund
The incredible is about to happen: Ukraine appears to be about to defeat Russia in Ukraine. Russia allocated 100 out of its ca 170 battalion tactical groups to its assault on Ukraine. According to the Ukrainians, about 50 btgs are now out of action.

Zelensky's excellent military advisor Arestovich predicted yesterday that Ukraine could win the war in two weeks time unless something extraordinary happened. Russian troops can be expelled from the whole of Ukraine. The new US military supplies might cause the end of the war.

I cannot believe that Putin will survive a military defeat in Ukraine. He has committed every possible mistake and crime. The question is rather how and when he will end. I see that many of the oligarchs' private jets are flying from Moscow to Dubai, their last holdout.

Well this looks interesting.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:47

@MarshaBradyo

It doesn’t sound legal to do it that way
They aren't employed under British law (ships registered overseas) so may be legal.
OMGTTC · 17/03/2022 12:48

@RedToothBrush, that latest post is interesting and sounds broadly positive? Who is the source, how reliable do you think he is? Thank you for collating all of this information.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:48

[quote MagicFox]@RedToothBrush I'm not sure how to interpret that tweet about Japan? Is the suggestion that China are aligning with Russia? [/quote]
Good question.

I'll get back to you in a few days when we all find out!

shreddednips · 17/03/2022 12:50

@AgnesWestern

This is really worrying Sad

Nothing we can do except hope and pray it’s not what we think.

Is it the planes you're worried about it? It would seem really peculiar to leave the transponders on if it was a genuine evacuation. I wonder if it's a deliberate scare tactic to get everyone guessing.
shreddednips · 17/03/2022 12:51

@RedToothBrush

Anders Aslund *@andersaslund* The incredible is about to happen: Ukraine appears to be about to defeat Russia in Ukraine. Russia allocated 100 out of its ca 170 battalion tactical groups to its assault on Ukraine. According to the Ukrainians, about 50 btgs are now out of action.

Zelensky's excellent military advisor Arestovich predicted yesterday that Ukraine could win the war in two weeks time unless something extraordinary happened. Russian troops can be expelled from the whole of Ukraine. The new US military supplies might cause the end of the war.

I cannot believe that Putin will survive a military defeat in Ukraine. He has committed every possible mistake and crime. The question is rather how and when he will end. I see that many of the oligarchs' private jets are flying from Moscow to Dubai, their last holdout.

Well this looks interesting.

Oooh that IS interesting! Thank you so much RTB, your updates are amazing.
RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:53

Should clarify.

I guess if shit is about to hit the fan and china is backing Russia, we will find out pretty quickly.

If Russia is having an internal meltdown we will fine that out too.

If theres going to be an incident at chernobyl we will find that out too.

But sounds like there is a pooey fan moment about to happen. Who for and in what form, i genuinely dont know.

Many explanations are available. May be bluffs. May be real threat.

I would suggest stockpiling alcohol and making sure you have enough bog roll available to deal with shitting yourself at brinkmanship over the coming days.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:56

In the meantime, im off to dye my hair, plant some bulbs and think about wtf im going to cook for dinner, cos Im not planning on sitting here all afternoon waiting for Russia to sort its shit out. Cos I don't think whatever it is, is going to happen today. Soon. But not today.

holliem91 · 17/03/2022 12:56

Sorry, I don't want to scare anyone and this may seem unreasonable to post but... are we all about to die? Or am I taking this way out of context?

This is escalating fast and I'm shitting it!

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2022 12:57

@holliem91

Sorry, I don't want to scare anyone and this may seem unreasonable to post but... are we all about to die? Or am I taking this way out of context?

This is escalating fast and I'm shitting it!

See my above post.

Go do shit.

thereisonlyoneofme · 17/03/2022 12:58

Well Putins got nothing to lose so perhaps hes ready to go down with the ship (world)

shreddednips · 17/03/2022 12:59

@holliem91

Sorry, I don't want to scare anyone and this may seem unreasonable to post but... are we all about to die? Or am I taking this way out of context?

This is escalating fast and I'm shitting it!

I still don't think so, but I agree with RTB that something is afoot. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping for a coup.
notimagain · 17/03/2022 13:01

@shreddednips

Is it the planes you're worried about it? It would seem really peculiar to leave the transponders on if it was a genuine evacuation.

Maybe…whatever it’s a good opportunity for some people to indulge in a bit of traffic analysis…

I wonder if it's a deliberate scare tactic to get everyone guessing.

That as well, and/or a bit of a “press to test”…..some talk elsewhere that some of these aircraft just did low approach at destination before heading back to Moscow.

(Idly wonders as an aside what the Flight radar junkies would make of the not that infrequent 20 plus aircraft exercise scrambles from RAF bases during the Cold War..)

CrunchyCarrot · 17/03/2022 13:02

@RedToothBrush

CivMilAir *@civmilair* One of the planes out from Moscow - the Tu214SR - 'doomsday' plane

Russian Government Tu214SR RA64516 RSD079

I think it means its the presidental office plane.

Doesn't mean Putin is on it. Or its doomsday.

Surely Putin would have a decoy, like the US do for Airforce 1?
wonderfullife123 · 17/03/2022 13:02

A general has been arrested according to Bellingcat.

twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504440205352349700?t=h2eJvEQazgo5ge7XzK_w_Q&s=19

AgnesWestern · 17/03/2022 13:03

@holliem91 I’m with you here, I’m feeling really frightened. My son is at nursery and I’m scared I won’t get to him and something will happen.

I don’t want to die Sad I really hope it’s not going to happen. I might go to church on Sunday and pray, I don’t usually, but I’m feeling powerless.

Natsku · 17/03/2022 13:04

Can't say I'm not relieved I finally got iodine from the pharmacy but in all seriousness, still don't think things will go that bad.
Exciting if its true that Ukraine is close to defeating Russian troops there but also what happens if they do? What's Putin's next move? Or will it be the impetus for someone in his inner circle to do something about him?

shreddednips · 17/03/2022 13:08

[quote notimagain]@shreddednips

Is it the planes you're worried about it? It would seem really peculiar to leave the transponders on if it was a genuine evacuation.

Maybe…whatever it’s a good opportunity for some people to indulge in a bit of traffic analysis…

I wonder if it's a deliberate scare tactic to get everyone guessing.

That as well, and/or a bit of a “press to test”…..some talk elsewhere that some of these aircraft just did low approach at destination before heading back to Moscow.

(Idly wonders as an aside what the Flight radar junkies would make of the not that infrequent 20 plus aircraft exercise scrambles from RAF bases during the Cold War..)[/quote]
Yes that's true, I'm sure that Russia must do 'just in case' practise runs.

toastfiend · 17/03/2022 13:08

@holliem91

Sorry, I don't want to scare anyone and this may seem unreasonable to post but... are we all about to die? Or am I taking this way out of context?

This is escalating fast and I'm shitting it!

Nobody knows, but probably not in the immediacy anyway.

Go and do something you enjoy. Have a walk, step away from the Internet. There's nothing you can do to change the course of events so whatever is going to happen next (and it could be nothing), you may as well enjoy the time you've got.

I agree with PPs that it would seem odd for them all to have their transponders on if there was a genuine threat and they were evacuating. Why give the West that kind of advance notice and risk attack as a form of defence? I suspect it's psychological warfare, in that we're all now shitting ourselves, and playing hardball to get something they want/remind the West not to be 'complacent' about the threat they pose and be tempted to step in further.

It's just a poisonous drip of nuclear threat, placatory statements that they never intend to use them and wouldn't nukes be awful, followed by more threat so no one knows where they stand and everyone's afraid. It's basically straight out of the abuser handbook on a grand scale.

baroqueandblue · 17/03/2022 13:09

Just catching up and only read as far as 1.20am but I hope @Snorkelface has read all my posts from last night and realises I had an epiphany!

toastfiend · 17/03/2022 13:12

@thereisonlyoneofme

Well Putins got nothing to lose so perhaps hes ready to go down with the ship (world)
Well he's relying on the others with codes and those who action their commands being willing to go down with the ship, too. Seems a risky gamble for him to assume that they're all suicidal/willing to put the world back together again post nuclear war.
shreddednips · 17/03/2022 13:15

[quote AgnesWestern]@holliem91 I’m with you here, I’m feeling really frightened. My son is at nursery and I’m scared I won’t get to him and something will happen.

I don’t want to die Sad I really hope it’s not going to happen. I might go to church on Sunday and pray, I don’t usually, but I’m feeling powerless.[/quote]
You're not going to die, try to stay calm. Something seems to be happening, but it's completely unclear what way it's turning atm. I still don't think it's ratcheted up near to that threshold yet, but there is going to be a lot of sabre rattling and fighting talk from Putin over the next few days I think.

OMGTTC · 17/03/2022 13:15

Is that really what we think this is? With the planes? Is this going to really happen?

If it’s a scare tactic, it’s working.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 17/03/2022 13:16

@Natsku

Can't say I'm not relieved I finally got iodine from the pharmacy but in all seriousness, still don't think things will go that bad. Exciting if its true that Ukraine is close to defeating Russian troops there but also what happens if they do? What's Putin's next move? Or will it be the impetus for someone in his inner circle to do something about him?
DH went out yesterday and bought a trailer load of sacks of soil. He doesn't think it's go that bad either. But just incase he's got a 'bunker in a bag' on standby. (He'll spread them out over the kitchen floor, creating a fallout bunker in the basement room below.) And when it all turns out to be unnecessary he'll use it to grow veg in the garden instead.