Ukraine Invasion Part 12

[MagicFox]

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

@AgnesWestern

So no hope in terms of peace negotiations then

I know it’s naive, but I was hoping for a breakthrough today.

What makes you say that? I was also hopeful for the peace talks

[quote AgnesWestern]@shreddednips

I’m hoping this one is true and not the other one!

twitter.com/pdshinkman/status/1503412985955504129?s=21[/quote]
I've had a quick look through that one, I think it's too close to call. China will be loathed to appear to 'side' with the US, but overall, I would have thought that maintaining actual, proper neutrality would be the least worst option. Fingers crossed 😬

@Gingerwarthog

This is crazy. You flee a war zone then create a lovely video of yourself on Insta and wait to be picked? Is this seriously what's being suggested? Sorry if I have this wrong. Been at work and haven't really seen much detail on this.

On R4 tonight, thats exactly what it is.

A recipe for disaster.

@AgnesWestern

So no hope in terms of peace negotiations then

I know it’s naive, but I was hoping for a breakthrough today.

I don't get the impression it's totally hopeless (unless you've seen something I haven't!) but I think it's too optimistic to hope for anything concrete in the next day or so.

[quote AgnesWestern]@shreddednips

I’m hoping this one is true and not the other one!

twitter.com/pdshinkman/status/1503412985955504129?s=21[/quote]
I think thats why the US made a song and dance about it... China thought they might get away with it quietly. US are warning that they are watching.

China have big issues incoming though:
twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213
This is the FT's latest on the covid situation in HK / China.

It is very ugly indeed. China have faired well during the pandemic in terms of economic hit so far. This is the hit coming, cos they fucked it and put a zero covid strategy ahead of a good vaccine strategy.

Hard economic realities incoming. This is going to ripple around the world too, with hits to food production, manufacturing, electronics and raw materials being likely - it will likely push up food prices worldwide. So there may be some very real considerations for China here. Ironically oil prices have already DIPPED slightly on news that lots of factory closures in Shenzhen because they think it will hit worldwide demand that much...

One of things that perturbs me about the JustGiving phenomena is that it makes getting help contingent on being photogenic, sympathetic, media-savvy and willing to sacrifice the dignity of privacy. With the sponsorship scheme are people more likely to take in a middle-class young woman who'll be living fairly independently or a working class elderly couple with disabilities? It risks provision not being based on need but on who is most appealing. A bit like people wanting to adopt the tabby kitten and not the geriatric black cat.

Spot the wheat problem...

US State Department urging US citizens to leave Russia now.

Actually that State Department advice is not new. Have the British done the same, or would that be seen as pre-empting escalation?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to address his nation tonight regarding the development of peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. - according to Telegraph

@EsmaCannonball

US State Department urging US citizens to leave Russia now.

Didn't this happen a while ago?

@RedToothBrush

Spot the wheat problem...

Hey

We sell services, weapons and tech.

Maybe we should have concentrated a bit more on on stuff like feeding ourselves and looking after our energy needs.

Then our service industries.

@EsmaCannonball
Totally agree with this.

@EsmaCannonball
Should have been clearer - totally agree with your comment re refugees and the reliance on social media.

cakeorwine, the uk is actually pretty ok in terms of wheat, especially compared with some European countries.

Its the likes of Egypt, Lebanon and other black sea and North African countries which are particularly exposed to Ukrainian wheat issues. They cannot afford China to add to what is already potentially a disaster for them.

@EsmaCannonball

Actually that State Department advice is not new. Have the British done the same, or would that be seen as pre-empting escalation?

This happened a while ago, the reason is more about potentially being unable to leave/lack of available consular assistance, police crackdowns etc.

“Alexandra2001

Gingerwarthog
This is crazy. You flee a war zone then create a lovely video of yourself on Insta and wait to be picked?
Is this seriously what's being suggested?
Sorry if I have this wrong. Been at work and haven't really seen much detail on this.
On R4 tonight, thats exactly what it is. “

When you put it like that you can see that unless the safeguarding is rigorous and cannot be bypassed it could be very dangerous for some of those young mothers with children to be picked.

What do people think about relationships with countries like India, Pakistan and various African countries going forward? It really feels like this situation is so potentially seismic not picking a side is picking a side. Whichever way countries go now, the enmity is going to smoulder for years. I know I will feel contempt for any country or organisation that bolsters Russia in its aims. (Not that they'll care about me, but you know.) It feels like we're watching the world being divided and whether your side emerges as the most powerful side is going to have massive repercussions.

@ScrollingLeaves
Can you imagine running a fostering service like this?
We know that young women and children are being targeted by human traffickers already.
I'm hoping the vetting checks are stringent.

@EsmaCannonball

Sadly, I think some might see this as their moment particularly anti capitalists who have seen their societies devastated in the Middle East.

Where is Tony Blair?

@EsmaCannonball

What do people think about relationships with countries like India, Pakistan and various African countries going forward? It really feels like this situation is so potentially seismic not picking a side is picking a side. Whichever way countries go now, the enmity is going to smoulder for years. I know I will feel contempt for any country or organisation that bolsters Russia in its aims. (Not that they'll care about me, but you know.) It feels like we're watching the world being divided and whether your side emerges as the most powerful side is going to have massive repercussions.

I think wheat is going to be a big driver of alignment in coming months...

Food insecurity is the problem the West really need to keep eyes on. Famine is a real possibility in North Africa/along the Black Sea. That will also drive economic migrants. That could compound issues in Europe.

And fuel insecurity and rising food prices is going to hit Europe hard enough.

Thats where I think the cracks will start to show and why Russia might yet try to brazen it out.

max seddon @maxseddon (FT's Moscow Bureau Chief)
A woman burst onto Russia’s main live evening newscast today with a sign that says:

“Stop the war
Don’t believe propaganda
They’re lying to you”

And chanting: “Stop the war! No to war!”

twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503445657805373446
Video of the above. Its like someone photo bombing the Six O'Clock Main Studio Desk

Brave woman.

Food insecurity is the problem the West really need to keep eyes on. Famine is a real possibility in North Africa/along the Black Sea. That will also drive economic migrants. That could compound issues in Europe.

Ah, yes, of course.

That might be a reason for Putin to try to brazen it out. The Russian economy will disappear down the pan as well, but it's going to anyway. Putin would certainly be pleased to take European countries down with him.

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
The girl's name is Maria Ovsyanikova, an employee at Channel 1; she was detained by police and currently being questioned, reports @bazabazon
(unverified - but seems likely to be an employee as it would be difficult for a normal protestor to get onto the set)

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
NEW: The U.S. assesses that "almost all" of Russian military advances in Ukraine remain stalled, including stiff resistance against advances outside of Kyiv and Kharkiv, the country's two-largest cities: senior U.S. defense official

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM
We see now that Russia seriously underestimated Ukraine’s armed forces and volunteer brigades. Maybe we all did.