On to the military on the ground stuff before I probably call it a night.
This plus a fair bit in the last couple of pages is more than enough to digest. It does really crystalise the Russian response to the economic side of things which is probably a lot more robust than many in the west would perhaps like to believe (I've actually seen very little on these side of things yet from more western sources, so I wonder if they are still on catch up). It is very much more destablising, and long term I think will very much strengthen China.
All of it says Russian isn't going to give up anytime soon even if things on the ground aren't too shit hot. They are now planning to play the long game, which may be difficult for the West to maintain and unite particularly if food shortages become a real issue in some places. I'm really not expecting much from peace talks now having seen these developments I'm afraid.
Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe
A background briefing at the Pentagon about the Russian war on Ukraine just finished. It’s Day 19 of the war.
Basic takeaways:
I’ll start with the strikes Sunday on the Ukrainian military training center at Yavoriv, near the border with Poland.
A senior U.S. defense official says they were carried out by cruise missiles launched from long-range Russian bombers from Russian airspace.
Note: That’s different than speculation and some reporting yesterday that they were carried out by sea-launched missiles from Russian ships. Those are still quite rare in this war.
“More than a couple dozen” Russian cruise missiles were launched at the training center from aircraft, the senior U.S. defense official says.
He notes that a no-fly zone patrolling Ukrainian airspace would not have stopped this strike.
The Pentagon is not clear on whether any Americans there as volunteers for the Ukrainian effort were there. It’s not something they are tracking, the senior U.S. defense official says.
Russian ground advances remain largely stalled, the senior U.S. defense official says. No “appreciable” change on advances on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, etc.
Pentagon still sees no indications of the Russians sending in military reinforcements from elsewhere in Russia, the senior U.S. defense official said.
"Siege mentality" by Russia still playing out, the senior U.S. defense official says. Heavy bombardment of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, etc.
Mariupol and Chernihiv remain under attack and isolated.
Senior U.S. defense official on Russia: "Clearly, they are increasing the amount of long-range fires they are applying to these cities, these population centers that are holding out … They are obviously continuing the bombardment and increasing that, no doubt about it.”
Russia now has 100 percent of the forces it assembled prior to invading committed to the fight. It has under 90 percent of those forces available to them, after taking losses, senior U.S. defense official says.
Pentagon still sees no indications of Belarus sending in forces to join the fight, senior U.S. defense official says.
As of Monday, Russia has launched more than 900 missiles at Ukraine since the beginning the invasion Feb. 24, senior U.S. defense official says.
No change in force posture for the about 5,000 U.S. troops in Poland following yesterday's airstrikes on the Yavoriv military training center just inside Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says.
Russia still has not achieve air superiority over Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says. But he couches by saying Russia has not achieved air superiority over "all of Ukraine."
Last week, lawmakers sent a letter to POTUS suggesting Russia had air superiority already.
Rob Lee @RALee85 (This is a western warstudies PhD student specialising in Russia who has been collecting crowdsourced details)
Russia deployed 75% of its permanent readiness ground forces to Ukraine, so this would mean it has lost ~6-7% of its total. Keep in mind that much of these losses have been sustained by Russia's elite forces: VDV, spetsnaz, 1st Tank Army, etc. That will take time to reconstitute.
Not to mention, Russia has struggled to meet its targets for contract servicemen in the Russian military. It is losing many of them here and of course there will be a question as to whether future conscripts decide to continue their service after watching this war. 2/
Mike Adams @HighlandScouse
Here's an excellent explanation of why 10% losses can be extremely serious for the Russian force operating using BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups)
twitter.com/raguileramx/status/1499153976646074368
A very military technical explanation which largely goes over my head, but I think says 'The way Russians set up their army means they can't attack very well after they lose a certain % of their force. Instead they get stuck and lack a flexibility to continue, but remain reasonably good defensively. They are organised in this way to have Big Guns that Fire Lots - more firepower than a western battalion. So they get attacked, get stuck but can still defend and blow up lots of shit.' Which looks a lot like whats happening.
So that's now pretty much a verified confirmation that Russia's standing army is committed and its elite sections have been burnt through which will take a considerable time to replace (in other words any reserve is either going to be foreign mercenaries or shit untrained conscripts without experience - so of dubious quality / morale) by the US. And there's implications to the (verified) levels of losses that they've sustained.
The worrying bit, is perhaps the bit at the end about air supremacy. It suggests that Russia does have it in some areas and Ukraine is gradually losing that battle.
However:
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Ukraine STILL has a "significant majority" of drones still available to fight Russia: senior U.S. defense official.
Ukraine is being "effective" using drones against Russian forces, the official said, such as Turkish Bayraktars.
Rob Lee @RALee85
I've yet to see photos or videos of the wreckage of any TB2 UCAVs so far in Ukraine, which we saw in Karabakh, Idlib, and Libya.
(He's saying that Russia aren't downing them at all. Replies to this suggest maybe one has been downed).
Katie Bo Lillis @KatieBoLillis (CNN - Intelligence and National Security)
UPDATE: Among the assistance Russia requested of China was prepackaged, nonperishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The request underscores the basic logistical challenges that military analysts and officials say have stymied Russian progress in Ukraine — and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.
One of the sources suggested that food might be a request that China would be willing to meet, because it stops short of lethal assistance that would be seen as deeply provocative by the west.
The Institute for the Study of War has just published its daily update:
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14
Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted several limited attacks northwest of Kyiv on March 14, unsuccessfully attempting to bridge the Irpin River.
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units.
The continued ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out successful local counterattacks around Kharkiv indicates that Russian forces are unlikely to successfully bypass Kharkiv from the southeast to advance toward Dnipro and Zaporizhia in the near term.
Russian and proxy forces continue to achieve slow but steady territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast after initial failures in the first week of the Russian invasion.
Ukrainian forces halted resumed Russian attacks from Kherson toward Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih on March 14.
Russia will likely deploy small units of Syrian fighters to Ukraine within the week and is confirmed to have deployed private military company (PMC) forces.
Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
Russia and China deny that Russia seeks military aid from China and claimed that Russia does not need additional military support to complete its objectives in Ukraine.
Drones and Ration Packs...