[quote EmbarrassingHadrosaurus]RTB is outlining some of the advice that reputable agencies such as First Draft would give for finding sources and stories in areas of conflict when other sources aren't available. Those provide leads and stories to follow-up.
firstdraftnews.org/training/[/quote]
I tend to try and cross reference where possible. Or where I know there is a history of sourcing being reputable. A lot of it comes down to knowing how to use twitter to its best and building up a lot of reliable blue ticks (or known professionals).
I do try to back source something or source from different points of view if I can or if I think its not necessarily verifible.
So Ukraine sources might say one thing, Russians another. So I'd take both, then see if there's anything from verified sources that matches either or perhaps fills in a gap between the two. Or I will look for a mismatch between sources (Eg over KIA numbers). I'd then try and find or think of explanations to account for the difference or historical reliability. The other thing to do is look for absence of evidence you would expect too.
Its not an exact science, but if you are cross referencing, know the difference between reputable and verifiable sources and rumours / twitter noise it can be helpful. And it is literally what newspapers will do and will then try and verify by the sources they do have.
Its always worth tracking things in terms of rumour v reality (or I might put it rumour to reality), because you know certain things will eventually come to the surface that can be verified because material reality means you can't hide it completely.
One of these has definitely been the level of Russian Equipment and Manpower. That has been slowly crystalising and creeping up the news agenda from rumours / crowd sourcing up to story about Russia asking for military help from China. It has to have some substance driving this, and you also see signs coming from the Russia leadership themselves which suggest its definitely a problem that they need to solve in someway. So you've got a cross reference of crowdsourcing, apparent intel rumoured, politics from the West, things like an ongoing count on missiles by ukrainian sources, stuff like Russian Generals with a habit of dying, historical and geographical knowledge and also political developments like requests from Putin for foreign fighters for free (together with their equipment). By themselves they often mean nothing. Put together they create a picture. It doesn't tell the whole story, but you get a certain sense of things, and what to look for next.
I would suggest keeping an eye on what happens with the Belarussians, the Chechans and whether we start seeing reports of Syrians and Africans popping up (I'm not expecting the africans btw). I've also seen a rumour today of Russian ships coming into Berdiansk today. I can't verify it. But I also know that the Mariupol humanitarian exit is via Berdiansk... So it makes sense for a pause there. I'd also be looking for developments in the area (perhaps a consolidation of power or a breakout either to the north or to break Mariupol finally) as an incoming story over the next few days.
Again its about depth of what you know is going on elsewhere and is verified.
Its a jigsaw puzzle. One where you can put a piece or two in the wrong place by mistake at times, but you can eventually start to see what the picture is.
We will probably see the same with economics too. Because of the laws of material reality.
How that influences and plays out in terms of what Russia actually do about them is another matter...
I have to say that I wouldn't be surprised by Perking's suggestion over Belarus. There were a lot of refugees (and economic migrants who were also encouraged to go to Belarus on a lie) who were almost 'trapped' - they couldn't go back and they couldn't go forward cos they had no money. There was talk of human trafficking, but I don't think what actually happened to them was ever followed through by journalists to a satisfactory conclusion to rule out the possibility. It was 'oh look fights on the polish border' etc etc, but it went down the agenda and disappeared. There's certainly nothing to suggest they flew home or were deported.
And race / origin of refugees has already become a 'wedge issue' to alienate and divide and conquer. Its part of a well established pattern.
I'd lean towards it being something that has been planned or provides an opportunity to exploit for Russian/Belarus benefit. I expect that one to head up the agenda too...