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Ukraine Invasion Part 12

999 replies

MagicFox · 11/03/2022 21:25

I see the other thread is filling up so starting the twelfth...

OP posts:
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14
kavalkada · 14/03/2022 12:28

I just want to mention that drone carried bomb.

www.foxnews.com/world/stray-drone-ukrainian-war-crashes-croatia-carrying-bomb

1dayatatime · 14/03/2022 12:30

@PestorPeston

If nobody knows the drones flight path, why do we have to assume it came from Ukraine.

Might be 50years until we know what happened here.

The flight path is known from Hungary and that it came into Hungary from Ukraine but unknown before that.

As for whose drone it is currently inconclusive and anyway as RTB previously said it's kind of irrelevant as it looks like a cock up and fortunately this time no one was killed.

However I am sure the Croatian investigators are busily trying to put the pieces back together to identify it but it looks like an old 1960s era Tu-141 "Strizh" reconnaissance drone that only Ukraine currently operates.

If that is the case then you are bang on that it would be 50 years before the truth comes out. On the big political picture the West is trying to present a united front and the last thing they need is a spat between Croatia and Ukraine even if Croatia has a valid reason to be pissed off, so most likely a "let's brush it under carpet" approach.

DuncinToffee · 14/03/2022 12:31

Kremlin does not rule out taking control of Ukrainian cities

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Moscow had planned to avoid civilian casualties and to refrain from storming major population centres, including Kyiv.

But in remarks broadcast on Rossiya 24 TV, Peskov says urban warfare will "inevitably lead to a large number of casualties among civilians" and adds: "The ministry of defence, while ensuring maximum safety of the peaceful population, does not rule out the possibility of placing under its full control major population centres... with the exception of zones used for humanitarian evacuations".

He also says US and EU officials were "pushing Russia towards storming major cities in Ukraine with a view to place responsibility for civilian deaths on our country".

"We think that such a position is provocative," he adds.

BBC

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 12:32

The Telegraph @Telegraph
Moscow has admitted for the first time that it risks defaulting on its sovereign debt as it accused the West of artificially creating a situation where it cannot repay creditors

Shame.

AgnesWestern · 14/03/2022 12:35

Any update on peace talks? I guess not as yet. Trying not to get my hopes up.

pansiesareyellow · 14/03/2022 12:37

@PestorPeston

Thanks *@pansiesareyellow*, an exit ramp is something we have touched on repeatedly on these threads.
Ah thanks PesterPeston - thought it may have been discussed but have not been able to read all the threads!
Feelingthepinch22 · 14/03/2022 12:40

@RedToothBrush

The Telegraph *@Telegraph* Moscow has admitted for the first time that it risks defaulting on its sovereign debt as it accused the West of artificially creating a situation where it cannot repay creditors

Shame.

What exactly does this mean & how will it effect the average Russian?
pansiesareyellow · 14/03/2022 12:40

@DuncinToffee

Kremlin does not rule out taking control of Ukrainian cities

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Moscow had planned to avoid civilian casualties and to refrain from storming major population centres, including Kyiv.

But in remarks broadcast on Rossiya 24 TV, Peskov says urban warfare will "inevitably lead to a large number of casualties among civilians" and adds: "The ministry of defence, while ensuring maximum safety of the peaceful population, does not rule out the possibility of placing under its full control major population centres... with the exception of zones used for humanitarian evacuations".

He also says US and EU officials were "pushing Russia towards storming major cities in Ukraine with a view to place responsibility for civilian deaths on our country".

"We think that such a position is provocative," he adds.

BBC

Just constant lies....

So why are they now not sticking to a ceasefire so people can leave?

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 12:47

Might be 50years until we know what happened here.

Or never. Cos no one really gives a shit in practice given what else is going on. The paperwork isn't worth the effort. All that matters is identifying the real issue that no one spotted it / communicated about it.

All the effort should be given to improving detection and communication rather than arguing about who is responsible. There is a choice here between a blame game which is only going to cause diplomatic tensions or having a constructive conversation about 'how can we improve this situation so it doesn't happen again. The former plays straight into Russia's hands.

The good faith argument applies on more than one level here.

To be blunt, phrases like the above quote, just make it sound like your priority here is to try and find some kind of conspiracy theory here.

Thankfully people who understand principles of good faith should be in charge of dealing with this one.

Hell, next time that could be a passenger plane thats just gone for a wander that no one is paying attention to. Or it could be an actual nuke. But yeah lets focus on 'Whodunnit'.

Hmm

Bottomline. No one really cares. No one wants to join a war on the basis of such a non-event. They just want to prevent a possible event.

prettybird · 14/03/2022 12:47

He [Peskov, Kremlin spokesman]also says US and EU officials were "pushing Russia towards storming major cities in Ukraine with a view to place responsibility for civilian deaths on our country".

"We think that such a position is provocative," he adds.

Classic abuser victim blaming and gaslighting Hmm Look what you did. You made me hit you you Angry

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 14/03/2022 12:50

So Russia's justification is now 'a big boy (the West) made me do it'.

DuncinToffee · 14/03/2022 12:52

More from the BBC

We have not asked China for military help, says Russia

We have more from the Kremlin now - including on the claim by US officials that Russia had asked China for military help.

Spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Russia has not asked China for military assistance and that it has "independent potential to continue its special operation in Ukraine" - what it calls the invasion.

He says Russia's plans for the Ukraine operation will be "realised in full" and in line with the original timetable.

The Kremlin has also said that comments from the US and EU about the operation not going as President Vladimir Putin would like have been noted in Moscow, according to Reuters.

AgnesWestern · 14/03/2022 12:52

I guess no further updates on peace talks. Can’t find anything on Twitter.

DuncinToffee · 14/03/2022 12:53

Look what you did. You made me hit you you angry

Yes, if only you did xxx, we wouldn't have invaded....

1dayatatime · 14/03/2022 12:58

In response to the recent Russian cruise missile attack 15 km from the Polish border President Zelensky said, ‘Now I am repeating it again. If you don’t cover us with a no-fly zone, it’s only a matter of time before Russian missiles will hit the homes of citizens of NATO states on NATO territory in your area"

I thought it would be helpful to explain what exactly a NATO no fly zone policy would entail.

Firstly NATO would have to enforce this policy, it's no use kindly asking Russians not to fly their military jets in Ukraine. Enforcement by NATO means NATO jets shooting down Russian jets which in itself would be an act of war between NATO and Russia.

Secondly NATO needs to ensure that it's jets are not shot down by Russian surface to air missile systems (SAM) that are actually rather good. To do this they would need to bomb and destroy these SAM systems. However some of these SAM systems would be operating from over the border in Russia itself which would necessitate NATO planes going in and bombing these sites on Russian soil.

Now I perfectly understand from President Zelensky's perspective that it would be extremely helpful for NATO to be fighting Russia alongside Ukraine. But I see it as unlikely and an unhelpful comment that Russia will be attacking homes in NATO countries.

Instead I see this statement as an attempt to get Western public opinion on board for NATO to become more directly involved without the public fully understanding of exactly what this would entail or the potential consequences of doing so.

myfavperson · 14/03/2022 13:11

@AgnesWestern

I guess no further updates on peace talks. Can’t find anything on Twitter.

I just heard on the radio that they will give me details later,

myfavperson · 14/03/2022 13:12

@AgnesWestern

Any update on peace talks? I guess not as yet. Trying not to get my hopes up.

Just said on the radio that more details later. I'm really hoping for something from it

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 13:13

What exactly does this mean & how will it effect the average Russian?

It means the Russians can't get loans. Cos they are too much of a risk. It means the State can't get credit. This creates a cash flow crisis; if they want to buy something they have to pay upfront. This is easier said than done.

So where do they get this cash from? Despite thinking they are sanction proof, they forgot that great piles of gold in a Russian bank are a bit useless. Those reserves of gold in Russia look pretty - but you cant flog it all to Oligarchs even at a knock down price quickly and you can't flog it outside the country cos no one is going to buy gold from Russians. Easier to just start taking it out of ordinary people's bank accounts that they can't access cos their cards don't work or companies that have abandoned Russia. I think this is called 'stealing' in other countries. I think the Russians will make up some Patrotic Name for it or start making accusations of Nazis so they can empty bank accounts of those people they think are difficult.

Cash flow crunch also has a knock on effect: the state has to do things like decide whether to import X essential for the war effort / running the country or whether to pay its public sector workers. Of course sanctions mean that X is now already much more expensive too, so in addition to the cash flow crunch, they also can't afford as much. So those public sector workers might not get paid and might also get laid off. This is fine I guess given that Russia can no longer import anything from certain sectors anyway (Apparently all dentistry related stuff and hip replacement stuff is a none starter), so there's a bunch of HCP who can be laid off. And dead army soliders who are 'missing' rather than dead don't mind not getting paid.

The State will also buy stuff from private companies. But the State can no longer afford to. So if you have given the State credit, you might be fucked. And you can't import the stuff to make your product to flog privately either. So you are double fucked. You may go tits up.

If you are trying to export stuff this also isn't great news, because people won't give you insurance and transport on credit. You have to pay upfront. That means you have to take a hit on the stuff you can export, to the few places that will take it. It means your margins get smaller.

You get the idea....

Basically, it starts a chain reaction within the economy which triggers economic collaspe.

Its not pretty.

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 13:21

Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel
In Mariupol the silence in the direction of the humanitarian corridor was confirmed. A slight hope

There was a fleet of buses on the way yesterday. They didn't make it to Mariupol. But they did reach nearby towns and were going to try again today to get to Mariupol.

This sounds potentially promising.

Fingers crossed.

MissConductUS · 14/03/2022 13:37

The State will also buy stuff from private companies. But the State can no longer afford to. So if you have given the State credit, you might be fucked. And you can't import the stuff to make your product to flog privately either. So you are double fucked. You may go tits up.

Russia has a long history of not paying private companies. This incident was a long time ago, but an electric utility cut power to a Russian rocket base for non-payment, so the Russians seized the utility.

MILITARY SEIZES RUSSIAN UTILITY

The Fitch credit rating agency has cut Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk status, so they won't be able to get commercial credit from the west either. They're also about to default on some bonds by paying them off in rubles rather than dollars.

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 13:46

Barak Ravid @BarakRavid
BREAKING: Israel announces publicly for the first time it will comply with the international sanctions against Russia. FM Lapid says "Israel won't be used as a means to bypass the sanctions on Russia"

Jonathan Schanzer @JSchanzer
The risks associated with this move cannot be overstated. In complying with sanctions on Russia, Israel risks losing access to the skies over Syria. Israel thus risks its ability to neutralize Iranian smuggling of PGMs to Hezbollah.

That explains a few things about Israel's position up to this point...

www.reuters.com/world/europe/top-putin-ally-says-ukraine-war-has-been-slower-than-expected-2022-03-14/
Top Putin ally says Ukraine war has been slower than expected

Viktor Zolotov Head of Russia's National Guard has said "I want to say that yes, not everything is going as fast as we would like" before he blamed the slow progress on what he said were far-right Ukrainian forces hiding behind civilians.

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 13:49

Ok. Unverified as yet, and we don't know if they have got to safety yet, but looks like we have movement out of Mariupol. Will keep looking for updates.

Stratcom Centre UA @StratcomCentre
The Russians started to let people out of Mariupol and a "green corridor" was finally launched, Petro Andriushchenko Adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol reports.

According to him, at least 50 cars were able to leave the city along the "green corridor".

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 13:52

AFP News Agency @AFP
^#UPDATE More than 160 civilian cars have been able to drive out of the besieged southeastern Ukrainian city of #Mariupol
along a humanitarian evacuation route, the city authorities said Monday^

RedToothBrush · 14/03/2022 14:00

WithUkraine 24/7 @With__Ukraine
Around 160 private cars have managed to leave Mariupol. People were following the previously agreed route for the humanitarian corridor. As of 14:45 Kyiv time it is known that they passed Berdiansk and continue moving towards Zaporizhzhia.

Berdiansk is under Russian control. The road from Berdiansk to Zaporizhzhia WAS clear for a humanitarian evacuation yesterday.

Hope they all manage to make it, but definitely filtering through as potentially good news.