Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

and yesterday a priests' supplier intentionally smashed a truck through the embassy gates.

I loved the comment on Twitter calling it "a special parking operation".

Yes, that ridiculous letter from the Russians to the Irish has had a lot of attention here (I live in Ireland) today! Being accused of being in the forefront of EU anti-Russian feeling is seen very much as a badge of honour. But we are a long way away from everything of course.

So the partygate vibes very much support the messaging under which the west is deeply unserious, decadent and unable to self sacrifice for their own future

But a glass of warm wine and a sausage roll seems far less decadent than a super yacht.

To an outsider Putin seems more czar than man of the people.

It seems as though the corruption and decadence in Russia is tolerated? But then we all know what happened to the czars!

It’s confusing.

OP, thank you for this thread. I have close connections to the region myself and your thread is certainly the most informed on MN since it all started.
I have noticed in the recent days that there seems to be a massive wave of recent political emigration from Russia, mainly middle class people and families, with a strong flavour of 1917 repeating itself. Do you think this is a signal that a new iron curtain (in some sense) is about to fall imminently? Or just an anecdotal blip in my own circles?

I wouldn’t say it’s correct that Ireland is very anti-Russian. Quite the opposite - there was a lot of attempt to see both sides, at least initially. The media has been much more moderate imo than the UK media. As you say, a very pacifist approach. The truck driver would be very much his own person and has been arrested.
Which is precisely why I wonder what made the Irish govt so uneasy about these warships.

Thanks op another day of helpful information.

As an aside I was worried to hear that fracking was mentioned again in response to the decision to stop Russian imports of oil.

I really hope that Boris doesn’t use this situation as leverage to allow that horror back.

It is significant (or true) that Zelensky is no longer demanding membership of NATO?

"But a glass of warm wine and a sausage roll seems far less decadent than a super yacht.

To an outsider Putin seems more czar than man of the people.

It seems as though the corruption and decadenceinRussia is tolerated? But then we all know what happened to the czars!

It’s confusing."

It's easy- four legs good, two legs better.

Surely the iron curtain falling or revolution?

People have been trying to oust him for decades, surely this is the most opportune moment for Russian's?

Many people would put up with the bastard and Jeep their heads down but now he's shamed them all and will be impoverishing them.

@strawberriesarenot

It is significant (or true) that Zelensky is no longer demanding membership of NATO?

Strawberriesarenot said:

It is significant (or true) that Zelensky is no longer demanding membership of NATO?

Yes, but it's not what it appears to be at first glance. A page or two ago I explained in some depth what Ukraine has to do I'm order to become a NATO member.

They don't currently meet it and Russia has made sure its even further away.

This information will help:

"The response that we are getting from the NATO countries is that they are not ready to even discuss having us in NATO, not for the next period of five or 10 years. We are ready to discuss some non-NATO models. For example, there could be direct guarantees by different countries like the U.S., China, UK, maybe Germany and France. We are open to discussing such things in a broader circle, not only in bilateral discussions with Russia but also with other partners."

Source: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia

www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-open-discussing-non-nato-models-negotiator-tells-fox-news-2022-03-06/

And:

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia.

I'm talking about security guarantees.

[Donbas and Luhansk] have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on."

"What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in.

So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them.

"This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen."

Source: Ukrainian President Zelensky

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

In other words, Ukraine wants a security guarantee agreement from the United States, United Kingdom, France and so on on a personal State to State level.

With zero involvement from NATO.

Zelensky also seems to be open to discussing the possibility of Ukrainian partition which is something I discussed on the previous page or two as the most likely outcome.

But partition is not easy or simple to do given both Russia and Ukraine will have a significant minority in either state who don't want to be part of one or the other.

So, it looks to me that Ukraine is talking about:

1. Security guarantee for Ukrainian Security as a state similar to the Budapest Memorandum. But much more robust and binding on the West.

2. Security guarantees for any Ukrainian minority who might yet find themselves living on the Russian side of the border in the east.

As I said, I see this ending in partition with a smaller Ukraine and slightly bigger Russia.

I've a question: Supposedly all men aged 18-60 have to remain in Ukraine and be ready to fight, UNLESS they have 3 children under 18? I don't understand that? Why should a dad of a 14YO, 16YO and 17YO be free to leave but the dad of a 2YO and a newborn has to stay?

Thank you Down Native

Perhaps this could be the beginning of the 'off road' that Putin needs?
Or is that much too hopeful?

It seems to me impossible that Ukraine can be given air cover, I understand why Zelensky is still asking. I don't understand how he can see such suffering and still carry on as he is. The brutal fact is, that in a choice of losing everything cf. Soviet occupation the lesser of the two evils would be the occupation. And hope that it wouldn't outlast Putin.

Down native, that sound's interesting.

And one dares to feel slightly hopeful?
The idea of a compromise between not being part of NATO but.... having security guarantees sound's like a more open proposition? If it was agreed of course ideally troops must be stationed along Ukraine border inside Ukraine so the people feel safe with full air force etc.

The sooner this can end the re build needs to start!

I forgot!!

Has anyone read Roman Abramowitz wikki page?

He's got lots of heritage in Ukraine, grandparents sent to camps, lost both parent's Before the age of 4 , lots of poverty and instability etc.

He's Also a Jew.

He's on some main commission board for the Jewish people of Russia.

I was shocked tbh.

I cannot imagine for one second he is happy with this at all!!

@SuperSocks

I've a question: Supposedly all men aged 18-60 have to remain in Ukraine and be ready to fight, UNLESS they have 3 children under 18? I don't understand that? Why should a dad of a 14YO, 16YO and 17YO be free to leave but the dad of a 2YO and a newborn has to stay?

Because wherever you draw the line, it will necessarily seem unfair when you look at individual cases.

Soviet occupation the lesser of the two evils would be the occupation.

Believe me from experience, this is not lesser of the two evils.

In other breaking news McDonald's closes its doors in Russia for the time being 🙌

news.sky.com/story/mcdonalds-kfc-and-coca-cola-face-boycott-threats-for-not-halting-operations-in-russia-amid-ukraine-war-12560435

Keep going, folks! More giants to ignore!

@Aristalese They took their sweet time didn't they!

@SuperSocks It finally hurt their pockets enough, right! Great effort all, don't stop please.

And wow, where do we start with more breaking news from Sky, I'll just share the headlines for now as all are relevant to the latest round of discussions on here - please head in there and read in detail if you're interested.

Snapshot:

• US bans Russian energy imports
• UK ceases use of Russian oil by the end of this year
• Poland offers all of its MIG fighter jets to the US for their disposal in exchange for US fighter jets replacement and calls for all neighbours with MIGs to follow
• UK House of Commons passes new laws assisting with targeting Russian oligarchs

Also in more breaking news, EU in intense talks with Spain regarding increasing its role in managing the potential energy crisis following severance of relying in Russian supply.

Talk about a fast moving situation!

Please can someone provide a link regarding Zelensky allegedly agreeable to a partition? As all I'm seeing is the opposite?

Apparently they opened their first Restaurant in Russia in 1988, so a year before the Berlin Wall came down.

Starbucks suspends operations in Russia too, in more latest news.

Like everyone else I've been wondering has starting to fight back been the best thing?

Perhaps allow occupation, do acts of civil disobedience.

Wait out Putin's death.

[quote Aristalese]@SuperSocks It finally hurt their pockets enough, right! Great effort all, don't stop please.

And wow, where do we start with more breaking news from Sky, I'll just share the headlines for now as all are relevant to the latest round of discussions on here - please head in there and read in detail if you're interested.

Snapshot:

• US bans Russian energy imports
• UK ceases use of Russian oil by the end of this year
• Poland offers all of its MIG fighter jets to the US for their disposal in exchange for US fighter jets replacement and calls for all neighbours with MIGs to follow
• UK House of Commons passes new laws assisting with targeting Russian oligarchs

Also in more breaking news, EU in intense talks with Spain regarding increasing its role in managing the potential energy crisis following severance of relying in Russian supply.

Talk about a fast moving situation!

Please can someone provide a link regarding Zelensky allegedly agreeable to a partition? As all I'm seeing is the opposite?[/quote]
And Putin has just signed a decree banning raw materials exports until December 31st, with the precise list of raw materials to be published within 2 days. If gas is on the list I can see current prices doubling or so.

That's interesting news about the planes!! I feel very relieved I don't understand what's the difference between arming them with other stuff but not planes that may help then win!

This war is so like Animal farm -George Orwell.