Page 40 | Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

1dayatatime · 13/03/2022 17:51

@QueenOfHiraeth

"No-one in their right mind would say there is no concern but you seem to be going at this one issue like a dog with a bone, determined to whip up fear that this is probable and imminent. I haven't seen posters rubbish your comments but I have seen people try to provide more reasoned and rational discussion across the whole topic"

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Given the consequences you are damn right I am going at this issue like a dog with a bone.

My determination is not to whip up fear but to create a realisation that the situation needs de escalation not escalation by whipping up a desire for further action or involvement. That calls for no fly zones is a failure to appreciate that this would most likely require attacks on Russian soil not just the shooting down of Russian jets. That the supply of Polish MIG29s would require them to be flown out of NATO airbases at least in the first instance and would be largely ineffective given Russian SAM capability. That suggestions that the use of tactical nukes wouldn't necessarily lead to a wider nuclear war is recklessly naive. That Putin would never dare use nukes on the basis of mutual destruction is a failure to take on board his position as a cornered rat.

I fully agree that currently the risk of tactical nukes being used is very low and that it is not in any way imminent. But there is a credible chain of events here of how it could happen and all these calls for further action simply increase its probability. And that all these calls for further action come with a risk of consequences for everyone else in the world.

I fully support and have contributed to humanitarian aid to assist all those fleeing the conflict and wish for a speedy and peaceful resolution to this conflict before it spreads (we have today seen attacks 15km from the Polish border).

Lastly to be accused of being pro Kremlin when i initially raised this reasonable concern leads me to believe that both sides of this conflict are so committed to their cause that they are willing to risk taking the rest of the world down with them. Is it really unreasonable to a say that I would rather they didn't?

1dayatatime · 13/03/2022 17:55

@Gladioli23

It certainly doesn't help and risks the conflict spreading by mistake rather than intention. Those cruise missiles only needed to be off course by 15 km ( or 9 miles) for the situation to expand radically.

1dayatatime · 13/03/2022 18:48

@Gladioli23

This on sky News of NATO warning Russia of consequences if it attacks a NATO country:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-news-putin-talks-nuclear-live-updates-12541713

QueenOfHiraeth · 13/03/2022 19:35

[quote 1dayatatime]@Gladioli23

This on sky News of NATO warning Russia of consequences if it attacks a NATO country:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-news-putin-talks-nuclear-live-updates-12541713[/quote]
They have to warn of strong consequences as not giving those warnings would be a green light.

The worry comes if Putin crosses those lines - does NATO live up to its threats and risk WW3 or do as Obama did after the use of chemical weapons in Syria and back down, kicking the can down the road for a bigger crisis next time?
I don't know the answers and share your fears but focusing on it as you are, and finding more and more reasons to be afraid, is not healthy. I'm afraid we have no control over this so are all in hope for the best but be prepared for the worst territory

1dayatatime · 13/03/2022 19:55

@QueenOfHiraeth

" I'm afraid we have no control over this so are all in hope for the best but be prepared for the worst territory"

+++

Well there is something we can both agree on. Finally I am not so much afraid of the nuclear war risk (well
To be honest I am shit scared but no more than any other rational person!).

But I am incredibly frustrated and annoyed that for example those supporting further military intervention such as a no fly zone are effectively supporting the escalation of this conflict either through ignorance or by design.

QueenOfHiraeth · 13/03/2022 22:32

Nobody wants escalation and I think governments have been clear about why a no-fly zone cannot happen but appeasing Putin as Obama did just kicks the can down the road

Original poster

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 13/03/2022 22:35

[quote 1dayatatime]@QueenOfHiraeth

" I'm afraid we have no control over this so are all in hope for the best but be prepared for the worst territory"

+++

Well there is something we can both agree on. Finally I am not so much afraid of the nuclear war risk (well
To be honest I am shit scared but no more than any other rational person!).

But I am incredibly frustrated and annoyed that for example those supporting further military intervention such as a no fly zone are effectively supporting the escalation of this conflict either through ignorance or by design. [/quote]
Hi: again, we have NOT discussed a no fly zone in detail on this thread nor have many voices here called for one. So to paint yourself as standing against everyone else on here calling for that is a straw man.

OP posts:

forinborin · 13/03/2022 22:39

[quote 1dayatatime]@Gladioli23

It certainly doesn't help and risks the conflict spreading by mistake rather than intention. Those cruise missiles only needed to be off course by 15 km ( or 9 miles) for the situation to expand radically.[/quote]
That is a lot though for it to happen due to accident. I think modern ones have target precision down to a couple meters.

1dayatatime · 13/03/2022 23:28

@forinborin

You are absolutely right that modern cruise missiles have an accuracy of 5 metre square or less when they work as they are supposed to do.

The problem is in a war stuff goes wrong and doesn't always work like it says it should on the packet. For example several tomohawk missiles went astray during the second Gulf War and they are arguably better quality manufactured than more modern Russian ones.

tldr · 14/03/2022 00:28

@QueenOfHiraeth

Nobody wants escalation and I think governments have been clear about why a no-fly zone cannot happen but appeasing Putin as Obama did just kicks the can down the road

I think kicking the can down the road is a very reasonable plan given the current situation.

QueenOfHiraeth · 14/03/2022 10:01

[quote 1dayatatime]@forinborin

You are absolutely right that modern cruise missiles have an accuracy of 5 metre square or less when they work as they are supposed to do.

The problem is in a war stuff goes wrong and doesn't always work like it says it should on the packet. For example several tomohawk missiles went astray during the second Gulf War and they are arguably better quality manufactured than more modern Russian ones.[/quote]
Again you seem absolutely determined to look for negatives and reasons to be afraid when these are things none of us can control.

I really think scaring yourself and others is not helpful in times like these and it may be a good idea to take a step back from it

1dayatatime · 14/03/2022 11:19

@QueenOfHiraeth

Seriously a drone has just crashed in Croatia, with a cock up being the most likely reason. It is currently undetermined whether it was Ukrainian or Russian which to a large part is irrelevant given it was most likely a cock up.

I am not looking for negatives but I am saying in the fog of war shit does go wrong and cock ups are made. Except that now cock ups can carry serious consequences. A time for cool heads is needed here.

powertowomen · 16/03/2022 08:08

@WhatsGoingOn2022

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

You must be mad. Shall we start throwing stones at Russian speakers now who live in the UK, as well? Just to make sure we punish Putun this way?

Littlepaws18 · 16/03/2022 21:48

Has this thread ended or is their a part 2? Either way thank you op for the information it has been incredibly helpful to understand the complexities of this terrible war.

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 06:34

@Littlepaws18

New thread here : 2: Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues (PART 2) www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4503892-2-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues-PART-2