Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Actually they make more money exporting oil than gas.

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/

Miss conduct can you link to the Reddit again please.

@Papertyger

Miss conduct can you link to the Reddit again please.

Certainly. This is the one with the videos

www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/

and this one has news:

www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/

In more latest news:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-targets-peppa-pig-in-retaliation-for-sanctions-amid-battle-over-cartoon-characters-trademark-12564846

This is an obvious manipulation from Russia and its puppet courts, aimed at making those Western businesses who have pulled out scared of losing their income for good and of course a typical move to keep large parts of the Russian society unaware that there is now the real Peppa Pig and the Russian Peppa Pig which alongside all the other brands is faking the Western presence in the country. So, the usual - steal what isn't yours and fake it till you make it.

And it looks like Michael Gove has already briefed the press on the proposed levelling up scheme for those accepting refugees in this country - £350pcm. Now, don't get me wrong, Polish people accepted Ukrainians in millions in their own homes with no extra payments, that's been going on for over 2 weeks now until the Polish government announced a support scheme yesterday that will pay out approx. £8 per day (it will also be backdated). So it works out roughly as £220-£240ish a month depending on currency fluctuations. Poland is still cheaper to live, but primarily in a sense of hospitality, travel costs, tourism and a big one - utility bills, less so in terms of food and basic day to day items. But with the situation that is going to hit people here from next month as well as the comments that it will reduce people's council tax discounts and any other support they currently receive (which may I add is a rumour at the moment until details are announced), it's this incompetent government laughing at people's faces again making them poorer on purpose for doing the right thing, and of course xenophobic again in blocking any effective help to those in need. I'm withholding judgement until tomorrow when details are announced, but if true, this is unbelievable.

aimed at making those Western businesses who have pulled out scared of losing their income for good

I wonder how much copyright law was enforced previously in Russia?

The scheme really is not what it is made out to be. I just heard on the radio that people will need to be able to name the refugee they wish to house. So it is only Ukrainians who already know someone in the UK willing to house them who will be able to benefit from this scheme.

Patel and the Home Office are a disgrace if this in the case.

The guardian outlines some of the practicalities/problems

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/gove-bids-to-end-ukrainian-refugee-chaos-with-350-cash-for-rooms-offer

“The UK-based sponsors, who will be able to register to take in refugees on a website to be launched on Monday, will be asked to provide homes or a spare room rent-free for as a long as they can, with a minimum requirement of six months. Those applying will be vetted and Ukrainian applicants will undergo security checks.

Last night there was some scepticism from refugee experts about whether such a system could work.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said the success of the scheme would depend on the fine detail, such as whether households would be given support to look after inevitably traumatised and vulnerable refugees, the vast majority of whom will be women and children.

“These people are going to be highly traumatised and disoriented and you can’t just put them in people’s homes without any expert casework support,” he said.

“It’s a bit like asking people to become foster carers without having a social worker in place. There needs to be good quality specialist support otherwise it risks relationships breaking down. In the long term they will need their own stable accommodation as they may not be able to return to their homeland for a few years.””

If sponsors are going to be vetted, (and can obviously understand why) how long will that take?

I saw this on the BBC website:

Individuals acting as sponsors will be able to nominate a named Ukrainian individual or family to stay with them rent-free in their home, or in a separate property, for six months

Sponsors won't be required to know them in advance - they might find them, for example, through posts on social media

Vetting is a very good question, it will depend on the level and the number of applicants. It's really difficult to estimate but likely several weeks if not longer? I'm not against it, but again, have provisions been made for it? Resources? Doubt it.

I also think this is a misake to require people to offer a place for a min of 6 months. In theory it might offer stability, but in practice it's an obstacle because many more people could offer emergency or shorter term care, say until the summer holiday if their children are returning from uni, just an example. Why should they be excluded? It's all done to avoid accomodating as many refugees as possible.

@otille You are Russian so please do not speak for Ukrainians mentality… Yes, there are a lot of people who were dissatisfied with the government, corruption, etc. But why would this need to be discussed in the light of horrible war atrocities? As Ukrainian, I can say that OP has been describing issues quite accurately.

a website to be launched on Monday

Yeah right.

I've been wondering about social media platforms in Russia. I'm not sure if they've voluntarily withdrawn or were banned but would it not be a good thing if they were permitted? To counteract the propaganda the public are now being force fed?

@NutellaEllaElla

I've been wondering about social media platforms in Russia. I'm not sure if they've voluntarily withdrawn or were banned but would it not be a good thing if they were permitted? To counteract the propaganda the public are now being force fed?

It’s Russia that has banned social media. There are some workarounds, though.

[quote otille]@Aristalese
Ok, how would you feel if a comedian with no political experience was chosen to rule the UK? When UK was going through an 8 year war?
Say James Corden. Or Peter Kay. And then it gets found out that James Corden is very close friends/business partners with an oligarch who is sanctioned by the US for corruption?
[/quote]
You've just described Boris Johnson

Zelensky studied law for five year's.

He left qualified to practice he is not just a comedian.

I'm no fan of lawyers but you have to have a degree of intellengence to study it .

Hey everyone! Sorry am out again for a bit of today on some personal matters, so I wanted to get us set up with another thread in case we ran out! Have made it below. We don't need it yet but might in a few hours! :)

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4503892-2-Ukraine-and-Russia-Answering-common-questions-and-issues-PART-2?watched=1

The UK Government now sees the use of nuclear weapons by Russia as a cause for concern:

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-news-putin-nuclear-live-updates-kyiv-12541713

Scary as this is, it is at least welcome that the UK Government acknowledges this is a real risk and reduces the chance of blundering into a nuclear war by getting more deeply involved in this conflict.

As for the previous posters who shouted me down after making this same point as scaremongering, paranoid and how Putin would never uses nukes as it would also cause the destruction of Russia, welll???

Note: to the best of my knowledge Sky News or the UK Government is not a pro Kremlin propaganda mouthpiece, but happy to be corrected.

There is a difference between acknowledging that Putin has nuclear weapons and believing that he won’t continue to escalate the situation if the rest of the world does nothing.

1day, it's been a concern from day 1? Surely any responsible government will quietly ramp up dust off our own responses?

Without making a song and dance of it

@Merrymouse

There is a difference between acknowledging that Putin has nuclear weapons and believing that he won’t continue to escalate the situation if the rest of the world does nothing.

On Putin's record so far, given the choice between backing down / humiliation and escalation he will always choose to escalate. To believe anything else is dangerously naive .

As for NATO doing anything else to provoke him well supplying Ukraine with a bunch of Polish MIG 29s or imposing a no fly zone would be doing just that.

To be honest it is clear Putin made a massive miscalculation in invading Ukraine and is now in a war where a clear Russian win looks unlikely. He is a cornered rat and even without further NATO intervention he could well irrationally chose to escalate.

@Papertyger

1day, it's been a concern from day 1? Surely any responsible government will quietly ramp up dust off our own responses?

Without making a song and dance of it

Dusting down our own response to a first use nuclear attack by the Russians is in effect a nuclear war.

This is not so much a "song and dance" but more like a full blown Broadway musical. I would describe that as more than a "concern".

@1dayatatime What Gove said there was a very reasoned answer.

"Asked whether the suggestion that Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons was a real concern for the UK government, Michael Gove says: "Yes. I think there are different ways in which you can describe Vladimir Putin's operating. I think he's operating according to a set of criteria, totally detached from those which you or I would consider to be reasonable or rational. But by his own lights, what he is doing is pursuing a conflict which he believes he has to win. We have to make sure that he loses. There are people who are even now calibrating what our response should be to that."
However, Mr Gove was reluctant to go into further detail on the matter, saying: "I hope you'll excuse my caution when we're talking about such momentous and potentially terrifying escalation."

No-one in their right mind would say there is no concern but you seem to be going at this one issue like a dog with a bone, determined to whip up fear that this is probable and imminent. I haven't seen posters rubbish your comments but I have seen people try to provide more reasoned and rational discussion across the whole topic

No-one in their right mind would say there is no concern but you seem to be going at this one issue like a dog with a bone, determined to whip up fear that this is probable and imminent. I haven't seen posters rubbish your comments but I have seen people try to provide more reasoned and rational discussion across the whole topic

Yes, I agree.

What do others think of the escalation re bombing 12 miles from the Polish border? This seems pretty close to NATO territory - too close to comfort. Do others think this will escalate further?

I've seen commentary about an expectation that Russia will start bombing movements of arms - this obviously makes sense militarily but presumably created risk at the border?