Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

This is really interesting. Thank you

@Cookiecrumble22

If putin was no more... would the war come to an end?

Is there any chance if ukraine winning this?

Why has putin stop most of social media to the Russian civilians?

How do Russian civilians actually feel about Russia invading ukraine?

To take how do Russian civilians feel: that's a huge mix bag. In terms of evidence for this I would recommend looking at a combination of polling, interviews, social media and actual actions.

Evidence of people actively against it:
the protests and arrests--numbers are not insignificant but for a country of the size of Russia, also not massive. However they come in the context of a brutal crackdown on dissent.

People fleeing Russia: if you look online you can see some evidence of this, mainly younger people and people already on that side of politics. A lot of them were people who previously worked in the press.

People sharing anti-war sentiment: fairly common but by no means enormous. Also worth looking at the military mothers, there is quite a bit about this online. With the death numbers from the war so far and the lobbies of former Afghan soldiers' mothers, this is not an insignificant group. Eg: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/russian-soldiers-mothers-committee-ukraine

BUT having said all that and having given a big caveat: unfortunately all evidence suggests the majority in Russia either support or are ok with the war.

This polling is a little old but sets the context: www.russiamatters.org/analysis/5-polls-contextualize-russia-ukraine-crisis
Much of the Russian public still believes the Kremlin account, which sounds extraordinary when you consider the close ties between the countries. There are countless people talking about this, one example: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487 and also edition.cnn.com/videos/media/2022/03/04/russia-media-ukraine-war-troops-humanitarian-aid-robertson-dnt-vpx.cnn

There are also people who not only openly support the war but go further--the Russian Z symbol is being sold on shirts and worn by Russian influencers to show their support for the invasion, alongside anti-Ukrainian messages. If you look at Ukrainian journalists' twitter feeds you can find these, but you would need a strong stomach as they are disgusting. They have essentially taken the military symbol and turned it into swastika meets Squid Games.

HOWEVER after giving all of these positives and negatives, the one thing I will say is that anyone who works in political science knows the majority of the public actually don't really care too much about anything beyond their own lives. While depressing in itself (like WW2 Germans who didn't care about concentration camps if they had a nice middle-class lifestyle) it shows why sanctions work. Russia's economy is about to be hit, and support levels for a war that has no impact on yourself, vs a war that bankrupts your country, are very different. Much of Putin's rise to power centred around promising greater wealth for Russia.

If Zelenskyy is killed - is this the main aim for Putin right now? - would Russia succeed in taking Ukraine immediately? Is there a second in command and team as strong as zelenskyy who could compete as he has?

@Asvan

Hi OP,

I know it's hard for you to say but what do you think the majority opinion is in Russia with regards to Putin? Are typical Russians supporting him? Also what is their feeling on Ukraine?

I know there have been boycotts and sanctions placed on Russia, is this something the Russian people are really worried about? Also today there was an article in the BBC about a racing driver who was sacked by his team because he is Russian. Would you say this is unfair?

Thanks.

I've just done a quick answer to that--I should also ad his opinion polling before all of this was quite high, Russians were generally satisfied by their government.

I think you have it exactly right on highlighting the sanctions and boycott--I think this will make a crucial difference to public opinion. It's the basic saying: 'it's the economy, stupid!' to describe what people actually care about. Tragic but true. On the hit to the economy, it is hard to stress quite how bad this will be. It's not easy to model because the scale and speed of the change is so significant but you can see some predictions in the FT which are quite good, but typically out of date within hours.

I would recommend checking out this video, if only for comedy value: www.newsweek.com/russian-economist-drinks-stock-market-collapse-1684531 This was on state tv and obviously not the message the hosts actually wanted to communicate! But a lot of Russians are worried about the economy, and rightfully so.

@Asvan

Hi OP,

I know it's hard for you to say but what do you think the majority opinion is in Russia with regards to Putin? Are typical Russians supporting him? Also what is their feeling on Ukraine?

I know there have been boycotts and sanctions placed on Russia, is this something the Russian people are really worried about? Also today there was an article in the BBC about a racing driver who was sacked by his team because he is Russian. Would you say this is unfair?

Thanks.

Dealing with the last part purely about the racing driver: I haven't read that specific article but in general I will say this: the power of cultural boycotts is immense. While it may seem silly, removing the opportunity for Russia to broadcast its successes on state tv has a powerful role in undermining the position of the leadership, and showing ordinary people just how cornered their nation is. If Putin can invade a European nation and then Russian athletes, etc compete and be filmed as usual, it allows 'business as usual' to be broadcast on state tv. Essentially, this kind of move removes the potential for Russia to create propaganda.

Great thread OP. Thank you

Yes thanks op.

Hi OP, my husband is from a none western country and believes there is a lot of hypocrisy from the west regarding Russia, many outside the west feel this is no different to the Cuban missile crisis and Russia have genuine concerns regarding NATO and the USA. Particularly given US history of invading and destroying countries on a whim. Do you feel there is a media bias in this country too or do you agree with how things are reported in this country. There doesn’t seem to be any attempt to understand the Russian position at all. Why are Europeans valued above people from the Middle East/Africa?

@ThroughThickAndThin01

If Zelenskyy is killed - is this the main aim for Putin right now? - would Russia succeed in taking Ukraine immediately? Is there a second in command and team as strong as zelenskyy who could compete as he has?

Zelensky being killed is certainly a priority for Putinthe reports are that there have been 3 serious attempts so far, I believe 2 were Russian Secret Service and 1 was from Chechnya (although I would need to double check that). Regardless, all have been foiled to date, allegedly with help from the FSBwhich means leaks from somewhere in the Kremlin.

Zelensky was never meant to be a heroic president, or an international symbol--his popularity wasn't great, he's a former actor and if you asked Ukrainians a few years ago most had little time for him. But obviously that has changed pretty enormously, he's shown himself to be an excellent commander and even more so highly skilled at press and media. He's managed to gain so much attention internationally that he's a major force in foreign policy.

Putin wants him gone, and with their lack of success in assassination they have been up to a few others things. Kremlin propaganda that they have broadcast through radio stations in Ukraine (they captured a tower for this purpose) tried to claim Zelensky had fled Kyivhence Zelensky posting so many videos to the contrary. There was also a rumour going around (likely due to intercepted radio communications) that Russia was planning to create a 'deep fake' of Zelensky declaring the end to the warbasically a highly realistic edited video.

In terms of second in command: Zelensky has a decent team behind him, I don't know enough about internal politics in Ukraine to say who would get the job but his Foreign Secretary Dmytro Kuleba or his Defence Secretary Oleksii Reznikov are both very prominent at the moment.

Thank you so much for such an informative reply. Fascinating (if it wasn’t so absolutely terrifying)

@HopeYourHighHorseBucks

Thank you for this OP I will be following this thread as your last post was really helpful.

In your opinion, how will this end? I don't see putin being taken out, I don't see him backing down either. I think he will take ukraine, the world will say how naughty that was and try to forget about it.

I've been avoiding this one, because that's really the heart of the issue!! And the hardest thing of all. The thing that makes this crisis so scary is that there really is no easy way out for anyone--unless we see something really significant happening perhaps with a country outside of this core conflict (eg China, Saudis) playing a mediating role. Which I wouldn't put any hopes on.

There were comments from someone earlier saying I acted like I knew what was going to happenthe point I am making is that I know precisely the opposite. I know a lot about what Putin wants, what the west wants, what has been done to datebut this is a genuine position of no easy ramp to deescalate.

Putin has backed himself into a corner. It's worth noting the complete about change in his language the last few days: from denatisification and demilitarisation of Ukraine (IE install a puppet government, stop their shift towards the west/democracy) from a total denial of Ukrainian statehood, suggesting a desire to obliterate the entire state, either through absorbing it into Russia or worse.

I'd recommend checking out the comments from Sir Lawrence Freedman (war studies prof)--his blog has really good long reads: samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan-c?s=r and less informative but still handy enough: www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-end-putin-sanctions-troops-11646240527 www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60602936

Another thing that we should (very sadly) take note of: NATO is not directly involved, it's security is boosted by the Russia army essentially burning itself out. There will be some security realists who recognise that western security is well placed by Putin running Kremlin forces into the ground in a long and unwinnable war.

Thank you for your better educated and informed than me interpretations.

My worry has been, how could this possibly end? Putin doesn't strike me as the kind to give up or admit defeat. Also, is it true that some Russian soldiers have been defecting?

.

@BirdOnTheWire

How safe is Putin? Is there any possibility of him being "removed" from power?

I touched on this a bit when I talked about oligarchs and the shift in the last decade to Putin having closer to absolute power, with less input from oligarchs. I can't really say either way--most commentators take the stance on this that any move would be nothing, and then all at once. Russia does have a fascinating history of taking out leaders, but not always when they seemed at their most weak. I think the chances of a popular uprising are slim, however what Putin is doing right now is directly destroying the lives of the only people who have a chance of doing this. Western countries are typically being careful right now to not openly advocate regime change (although I believe Boris may have said differently this morning...) but it would be the ideal outcome. Destroying the economy, turning Russia into a cultural North Korea and helping to cut his ties with other countries would create the environment most likely to lead to this, but no promises.

Do you think he has something up his sleeve re capturing the nuclear plant's?
He could rig them And hold the whole war to ransom??

@KindlyKanga

So China are in on this?

Unfortunately yes, although the context of this is a huge and fascinating issue worthy of a lot more time!! If you are interested I would recommend looking at Kissinger's book On China, it basically looks at the history, context and motivations of Chinese foreign policy. You should also check out anything on the Chinese One Belt, One Road program--which is essentially a massive programme of investment in countries in Africa and Central Asia to help draw them closer to China.

So in the article I linked to before, it showed China had negotiated the timing of the invasion with Russia. However, China's votes at the UN were a big loss to Russia--Beijing is absolutely reeling at the response in the west. Especially this new awareness of how Russia has used money and investment to influence politics in the west, as well as how they have shielded bad intentions behind a programme of cultural and sports 'washing'.

China and Russia have essentially been working together on this for quite some time. Also in their coalition is e.g. Iran, Eritreia, Belarus, Uzbekistan and a few others (see the UN general assembly vote on Ukraine the other day: news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113152 )

However: the indications of what China are going to do are very uncertain. The western response to Russia has put distance between the two--while China are taking actions to prop up the Russian economy, they have also been keeping in touch with Ukraine, and sent contradictory signals of support for both. The Asian Infra Investment bank (based China) has also pulled out of working in Russia as a result.

Japan and South Korea have come out forcefully for Ukraine--Japan has soldiers going and were sending arms.

Where does India stand--they are right in the midst of this, they were cosying up to China and Russia, they are doing so economically after the sanctions (highly reliant on Russian fertiliser) but they also have a lot of students stuck in Ukraine too. So again uncertain if they may peel away from Russia.

When talking China it's also really important to remember China's own position here in terms of Taiwan: China may well be rethinking quite a few of their plans now! Taiwan has openly backed Ukraine, who basically are them by analogy, and have sent medical aid

As far as I know in 1968 the Russion soldiers didnt know either that what they were doing is an invasion.

@BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation

What are the chances of Russia invading Poland or one of the Baltic countries?

That's a difficult one--there are two things at play here: desire to, and now the practicalities considering the ribbing they are getting in Ukraine.

Poland and Baltic countries are in NATO, and they are very relieved about it (to put it mildly). Poor Poland also shares a border with Belarus as well as Kaliningrad so while invading a NATO country is frankly nuts, I wouldn't be sleeping well if I were them. I did see today that the US is speeding up delivery of cutting-edge tanks for Poland, so efforts are being made to strengthen their borders now. Poland is also terrified of Russian spies slipping through the net with the border issues currently.

The Baltic States have been at the end of constant threats, cyber attacks and provocations from Russia for years. While I don't think an attack is likely I genuinely don't think it could be ruled out.

Basically: on one level NATO countries want to see Russia use up as much of its firepower as possible. They're also greatly relieved to see that (to be very frank) the Russian army is actually pretty incompetent, and nowhere near as mighty as raw numbers might suggest. A lot of their tech is out of date, their army is poorly trained and their machinery badly maintained.

So today the was meant to be a ceasefire so civilians can leave. Yet his army start shooting . Was this a set up so he can kill more people?

@Asvan "Also today there was an article in the BBC about a racing driver who was sacked by his team because he is Russian. Would you say this is unfair?"

Mazepin's father -is- was a major sponsor of the Haas F1 team through his company Uralkali - and daddy is also an oligarch with close connections to Putin. So in short, no, not unfair at all.

@CorneliusVetch

I read it will take 500,000 or so soldiers to keep Ukraine suppressed even after Russia “win”. Do you think the way this has gone will make him think twice about expanding further?

Yes this exact point is why Putin is essentially fucked--I know it's not a very professional way to put it, but you can read any foreign policy analyst saying this in slightly more eloquently. He may be able to take Ukraine, he may be able to destroy it, but he has little chance of holding it.

And he's likely to lose much of his army doing so. If (and it's a big if) things keep going this way, I think the Russian army will be significantly weaker. There are estimates that in the last week or so, Ukraine has destroyed or captured literally billions of dollars worth of Russian tanks and machinery. If you check out people covering the Ukrainian war on twitter you can see live registers and videos of them uncovering it (obviously only look at risk of gore).

I think the real question is: after this, would Russia even be capable of another war? Especially if their economy is crippled and they can't get many of the materials to actually rebuild the army.

I know you don't have a crystal ball, and this is quite dramatic a question, but from what you know, do you think the likelihood is that this could escalate and become world war 3?

Where does Africa (and more specifically South Africa) stand in all of this? I saw they abstained from a UN vote

Thanks for a very interesting read, OP.

@MagicFox

1. What do you mean by "use Ukraine as a base to launch attacks on other states." Are you saying Putin intends to take this further than Ukraine? Which states?

1. You mention "China's plans for the West". What do you mean by this? What are these plans?

I'll start with 1: the possibility of further states is a topic of discussion in the grouping of Kremlin academics. Putin likes to work with them on essentially writing justifications for his positions--see for example: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians

States that are within consideration are basically what you see if you overlay the soviet union and where they tried to expand. So that means expanding out to reecompass Kalilingrad and strengthening the area around Crimea.

When saying remake the USSR, or expansionist/imperial ambitions: that doesn't strictly mean invasions. It's about expanding influence and stopping their drift towards Europe. So for example threatening Sweden and Finland so they don't join NATO. Or getting Hungary to keep undermining the EU. Or have Turkey undermine NATO. Installing puppet governments or using bots and cyber attacks to undermine west-leaning governments. Look at their support for Serbian neo nazis, etc.