To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

A recovery is inevitable. When people are released from lockdown they will spend again and boost the economy. A total recovery is not inevitable and no one, that I’ve seen, is saying that. Of course some people will be in positions that are horrendous but that is not a reflection on the economy as a whole, it is a part of that whole only.

The forecasting being done by both DH and I’s employers, different industries suggests the complete opposite. Consumer confidence will be at an all time low as furlough ends and redundancies begin.

People are spending now because their income has (largely) stayed the same and they are bored.

And of course you can say it “will recover” with the unspoken caveat of “eventually” but it won’t be this decade.

Well I’m not panicking... because it isn’t useful and realistically it’s happening no matter what.

It won’t be this decade? You know that for sure? How?

My employer predicts different. That’s the nature of a diverse economy in a state of flux.

I’d probably rely on economists taking a general view rather than an average of what people’s employers think will happen.

@byzantineprincess the Bank of England is predicting the worst recession in 300 years.

We had barely recovered from a much smaller recession in 2008.

So yes, more than a decade.

This will affect our children.

It will recover. The economy recovered after two world wars and the plague so it will recover after this. Money wasn't even being spent on trying to recover the economy then either and millions of people world wide went from fighting in the army, navy etc to seeking jobs and in the plague incident, many people were being recruited to help with medical supplies, burying bodies and transporting to food to then be out of work once it passed. This is even on the same level with any of those situations.

*isn't. A lot has happened in 300 years, a lot worse than what we are experiencing right now

@YappityYapYap you haven’t heard of the Great Depression?

Good grief.

I am absolutely stunned by the cavalier attitudes towards this.

You are catastrophising. That isn’t helpful. It is disingenuous to say the economy will never recover.

Honestly, because humans adapt.

In the past 120 years, there have been two world wars and one worldwide mass pandemic. Humans will survive and adapt albeit with a greatly reduced socio-economic status for the majority and reduced access to a variety of foods and healthcare, which have only been available the past 40-70 odd years anyway for Brits anyway. This is what might happen.

@Sadie789 yes I have but we recovered didn't we?

Short reply to a long post, no one can say fro sure but history tells us that pretty much anything can be recovered from. It might be an awful time while it happens but personally I'm sure it will.

The UK had exceeded pre-2008 GDP growth, so to say that we hadn’t recovered from 2008 is incorrect.

The fact is, at the moment, no-one knows how bad it will be or how long we will take to recover. You absolutely cannot know that this will take 10+ years to recover from. Could be more, could be less.

I am absolutely stunned by the cavalier attitudes towards this.

I feel you are being incredibly melodramatic.

I'm not relaxed about the economy at all - terrified in fact - but i can see that its not just the uk lockdown that has damaged the economy, but a worldwide pandemic and that the economy might have stuggled more if we hadnt tried to stop it.

Totally missing the point but if (god forbid) you both lost your jobs, would your outgoings really still be £1000 a week?!

Sadie do you have a link to the 300 years prediction please, would like to see what the BoA are basing that on.

It depends on what timescale they think it'll recover. Are these people talking about it recovering in a few months, a year, two years, ten years...? Or have they not thought that through?

@sparklfairy

I’m just going by our current incomes which are around £2k each which is tight for us as is.

Obviously when it came down to nitty gritty there would be savings that could be made: I think the point I’m trying to make is we have savings, many don’t, and while what we have seems like a lot of money it won’t last very long when you have to start spending it.

I hope this link works
uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-worst-slump-in-300-years-as-coronavirus-bites-idUKKBN22I3BP

@OutwardBound2016

It's going to be awful for individuals but there's nothing I can do about it but go on with life - help people where I can, campaign where I can't

I also have to focus on the benefits too - there's an article saying flights will double in price if there's social distancing and I read that and thought good. Good for the environment if people travel less.

If people buy less crap from China then also, good for the environment

A global recession / depression is obviously very serious but what can be done? I'm not worrying at all as apart from save, stockpile / prepare, pay down bills etc there is literally nothing we can do.

We're in a better position than most as our house is owned outright, no debts, and a fair bit in savings. I'm only worried about the health risks of the pandemic on my family rather than the financial risks.