To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

it's way too simplistic to think millions of people can down tools, businesses can close & they all reopen as if nothing has happened.

Again, care to point out to me where I said it would go back to how it was before? Is there some reason people are ignoring that?

Or are people so desperate for doom and gloom, they refuse to look at the actual situation?

@MintyMabel

Did you miss (or ignore) the bit where I said we won’t immediately come back to where we were before?

Does this not mean what it says?

And the bounce back we will see will be the quickest in 300 years.

Or this?

It isn’t unrealistically optimistic to say that construction, retail and hospitality will see an increase when things open up. It is a fact.

This?

You literally have said it will go back to before but take some time.

So how long do you think?

And you haven't answered my question about how the fiscal intervention will be payed for regardless of who is in power....

The economy would be fucked either with lockdown or without it. It's least worst scenario.
The death rate is "only 30,000" but what on earth would it be without lockdown?
Without lockdown people would be terrified of going out, once that exponential growth had taken hold and many, many more than 30,000 had died.
At least this way, many people's jobs have been temporarily suspended and have a hope of recovering once a sustained lockdown has proved effective. Not all of course, but there would still be economic casualties even without a lockdown.
Personally I'd prefer at least an attempt to save some lives. I'm terrified that reducing lockdown too early will be the worst of all worlds. That it will undo the good that has been achieved so far, and still lead to financial disaster.

It has to be a balancing act.

Does this not mean what it says?
And the bounce back we will see will be the quickest in 300 years.
Yes, it will be the quickest in any recession we have ever seen. That doesn't mean it will return to pre-covid levels. Nor does it mean it will stay there. In your desperate trawling, you missed the quote about settled retraction.

or this It isn’t unrealistically optimistic to say that construction, retail and hospitality will see an increase when things open up. It is a fact.

An increase. From where they are now. Quite straightforward, easy to understand, not sure why the confusion.

And this point

Did you miss (or ignore) the bit where I said we won’t immediately come back to where we were before?

Did you not type that?

You literally have said it will go back to before but take some time. So how long do you think?

I literally have not said it will go back to before, because there are far too many parameters not related to the pandemic which can affect that. We've still Brexit to contend with. You've jumped to a conclusion and appear to want to stick to it for some reason.

And you haven't answered my question about how the fiscal intervention will be payed for regardless of who is in power....
It matters who is in power. It may be paid for by raising taxation generally. it might be by cutting services. It might be by taxing businesses. It might be by introducing new taxes. It might be done over a couple of years, it might be done over 5 years.

Did you miss (or ignore) the bit where I said we won’t immediately come back to where we were before?

What does this mean?

Did you miss (or ignore) the bit where I said we won’t immediately come back to where we were before?
Did you not type that?
Yes. Did you miss it? Have you just found it? Is this some kind of epiphany for you? Or do you actually think this strengthens whatever weird thing is you are doing?

I re-iterated that I hadn't said we would come back to where we were before.

One thing I was thinking is there will be a lot of stuff going for sale cheaply.
Planes definitely, cars maybe, sales have dropped Seriously, houses, all those with insecure jobs might want to sell up,
even businesses , our local town has dozens of coffee shops and hairdressers , no industry much here except farming, I would think many will close down and therefore loads of empty shops.
Who will buy these, if anyone, hopefully not just rich Foreigners so that like amazon the profits go mainly abroad.

You wrote we won't immediately come back to where we were before. That lots of people are desperate to get out & spend etc.

I don't know why your so agitated, it's not my fault you're wrong.

I'm not desperate for doom & gloom, I just think it's good to be prudent & prepare & realistic.

You wrote we won't immediately come back to where we were before. That lots of people are desperate to get out & spend etc.

Lots of people are. That doesn't mean it will return to how it was before. Is that too difficult for you to grasp?

I don't know why your so agitated, it's not my fault you're wrong.
Ahh, so that's what this morning is about, a crusade to prove me wrong. How sad that's what you need to do on a saturday morning. Especially as you appear to want to say I'm wrong about what I actually said and meant. Weird.

I'm not desperate for doom & gloom, I just think it's good to be prudent & prepare & realistic.

Then you should do that and be happy in your own little world. But I'm sure you understand not everyone will do what you are doing, which means the economy won't stagnate at this level, quarter on quarter and recovery will be quicker.

Everyone I know who work in the city have been told to expect to wfh for a long time, like 2021

Surely that will have a massive effect on industries that support city working.

Wow @MintyMabel you have a selective memory, I simply replied to your below request

Again, care to point out to me where I said it would go back to how it was before? Is there some reason people are ignoring that?

So I'm not sure why that's arguing plus one can't argue alone so feel free to listen your own advice & not reply back.

In my mind saying we won't immediately come back to where we were before implies that you think we will go back to how it was before but will take some time. You read it differently clearly.

How sad that's what you need to do on a saturday morning. Especially as you appear to want to say I'm wrong about what I actually said and meant. Weird.

😂😂 This is exactly what your trying to do to me but judging me for the same behaviour.

This is exactly what your trying to do to me but judging me for the same behaviour.

Umm, no. I don't believe I'm trawling back and reposting everything you said to try and suggest you said something different.

If you want to disagree with my view that the recession will not be as long and as deep as doom mongers want to suggest, that's fine. You can believe what you want. We'll find out in 6 months.

What's weird is spending your morning trying to prove I said something different when clearly I didn't.

In my mind saying we won't immediately come back to where we were before implies that you think we will go back to how it was before but will take some time. You read it differently clearly.

Your misunderstanding of what I wrote doesn't mean I changed what I said.

Perhaps best you leave it here. You won't prove I've changed my position just that you struggled to understand it.

Oh, so you didn't mean what you wrote, that makes sense now!

Do you often find people struggle to understand you @MintyMabel? I bet you find life difficult.

You can believe what you want. We'll find out in 6 months.

Likewise, fingers x for that bounce back.

Bye, Felicia

Oh, so you didn't mean what you wrote, that makes sense now!

Jeez, you really do struggle with comprehension, don’t you. My post didn’t mean what you thought it did.

Do you often find people struggle to understand you @MintyMabel? I bet you find life difficult.

Nope. I spend my working life writing reports for clients. Not a single one has ever been challenged for being unclear.

@Sparklfairy
Totally missing the point but if (god forbid) you both lost your jobs, would your outgoings really still be £1000 a week?!

What are you spending £4k a month on?

Worrying about a recession won’t change it.
There’s nothing we can do to change it. What will be will be.
All we can do is keep plodding along. That’s it.
Worrying will not change it. It’s not a cavalier attitude. Just realisation that there’s fuck all we can do.

There was a hard reset after ww2, a socialist government was voted in, the birth of the nhs.
I hope this will be the same.