To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

Yes, I hope for a reset. Boris' near death experience might have shaken his rich, privileged white man views.

or this It isn’t unrealistically optimistic to say that construction, retail and hospitality will see an increase when things open up. It is a fact.

An increase. From where they are now. Quite straightforward, easy to understand, not sure why the confusion.

Your absolutely right, given construction, retail (apart from supermarkets) and hospitality have virtually ground to a halt - suggesting an "increase" when things open up is stating the bleeding obvious - they could hardly work less!

I wrote this earlier;

I don’t know about the hospitality trade losing out. All our shops are packed even with social distancing. The supermarkets are always busy. The small expensive local butcher delivers now but still has a constant stream of people at the door .As do the veg shops. The same us true of the restaurant's and pubs that are still doing delivery and take away.

I do think most of it is because people are now home when the high street is open. Once people go back to work it will be a shock. Hopefully the high street has woken up to the fact that closing at 5.30 when people are working is stupid,

Let the vulnerable age group who are mostly retired shop in the day and open later for those of us that work. More hours open means more jobs with the same business rates and rent.
Pubs and restaurants can still do take away and deliveries as well as having limited numbers in. Hopefully businesses have had a chance to see what works for them and customers have had a chance to try new places out.
The reset needs to happen and now could be a brilliant opportunity.

Pubs and restaurants can still do take away and deliveries as well as having limited numbers in. Hopefully businesses have had a chance to see what works for them and customers have had a chance to try new places out. Thing is I don't go to pubs to socially distance - quite the opposite - I go to meet people to converse, chance upon an unusual encounter, it's an experience that is more than a glass of something cold. Beer is much cheaper bought from the supermarkets to drink at home rather than drink in an empty pub. The buzz will be gone and the atmosphere that makes eating and drinking out will go with it.

Walking past a the local shops today I was struck by all the queues and thought who could be arsed unless what you needed was essential - the days of shopping as a pass time will go for a considerable time - maybe that will be great for the environment but it won't do the high street any good. If shopping experience proves to be less fun, the bounce back on Britain's high streets will certainly suffer.

“Pubs and restaurants can still do take away and deliveries as well as having limited numbers in.”

Pubs that don’t do food are stuffed... limited numbers means running at a loss for most of them.

A lot of restaurants are stuffed - kitchens aren’t designed for space for staff and again limited customers means less money.

Some will get by with takeaways and deliveries... but they don’t need waiting staff, they don’t need dishwashers or linen cleaned... or supplied, drinks that aren’t canned or bottled, ice... those are all jobs too.

Some will get by with takeaways and deliveries... but they don’t need dishwashers

tabulahrasa Really? You think if they’re only doing takeaway and delivery they don’t need dishwashers? Clearly you’ve never worked in a kitchen.

Of course we are going to have a recession, a very deep and long lasting one I would think.

I am not going to worry about it because it doesn't change anything also we are lucky in that we own our house outright and don't have very high outgoing.

Also, thankfully, we have no children to worry about. I do worry about our nieces and nephews futures though.

I don't think people will be spending a lot when lock down ends. I know me and DH won't be going out to eat or for coffee, to the cinema, theatre etc and almost all of my friends and family say the same.

Lots of people won't want to start going anywhere like restaurants, coffee shops even if they are open. Also I would imagine most people, if they have any sense, will want to hang on to their money for when the second wave hits and there are likely no hand outs from the government

“You think if they’re only doing takeaway and delivery they don’t need dishwashers?”

People, not the machine - cooking creates nothing like the amount of cleaning as using plates.

People, not the machine - cooking creates nothing like the amount of cleaning as using plates.

tabulahrasa I know. I work in the restaurant industry (without a dishwasher machine) and we’ve never needed plates, cutlery etc.

It has never stopped us needing someone doing the washing up frequently throughout the day and having mountains of it to do every hour or two.

I don't understand what you're asking us to do. The economy will either be completely fucked or it won't be, or most likely somewhere in between. Nothing any of us do right now is going to have any bearing on that, so it seems that you think we should all be panicking which will achieve what exactly?

“It has never stopped us needing someone doing the washing up frequently throughout the day and having mountains of it to do every hour or two.”

But you’d have more people if you were using plates and cutlery... which was all the point I was making was that even places that do change what they’re doing successfully - still means some roles are redundant.

@MintyMabel great to know someone is taking turns riding the accessability hobby horse. One of my favourites is the invariable notice 'in event of fire, do not use the lift'. Instead, fire up the helicopter blades on your wheelchair and fly through a window?

My other infuriator is incorrectly adjusted door closers. Wrongly, the public call them 'heavy doors', and they are a major bugbear for all building users, indeed can even cause problems for weak or pregnant or injured or young or old or those carrying things. For disabled people they are the biggest access problem. Original Part M mentions 20 Newton as maximum permitted opening strength, and DDA made it clear the test is one of effect, not box ticking. i.e. if a customer or staff member cannot open it, that means there is no access, for them, which is unlawful discrimination. Sounds , (pun intended), like an open and shut case. However, not one of the L.A's interviewed by a disability lobby group had ever checked, nor did any of them have a pull measure.

When challenged, building managers and staff invariably express shared opinions that the doors are a problem for everyone, and invariably insist they are helpless to do anything about it, because "that's for fire, it has to be like that".

The lobbyists also managed to reach the top of a couple of Fire Authorities, asking for specific information about the wishes of fire crews. Unsurprisingly, not one really does hope to find cremated cripples, or even weak children or old people, securely trapped by the fire doors.

One thing I was thinking is there will be a lot of stuff going for sale cheaply. Planes definitely, cars maybe, sales have dropped Seriously, houses, all those with insecure jobs might want to sell up

I can’t give any insights into the markets for aircraft or cars, I’m afraid, but anybody expecting the price of houses to plunge is in for a surprise.

Interest rates have been cut, and will stay low for the foreseeable future. We’re moving into the space Japan has occupied for years: super-low interest rates to stimulate borrowing by businesses. Anybody with money won’t want to keep much cash on deposit because its value will erode.

Where is the obvious place to park your wealth? Why, in physical assets of course. Like houses. And gold, but houses are preferable because they produce an income and their value is less volatile.

Low interest rates keep mortgages affordable. No government is going to raise base rates significantly because too many people have over-borrowed on high income multiples to buy houses based on ‘affordability’. The impact of an interest rate shock would see a significant proportion of borrowers unable to meet their mortgage payments. Those people still need to be housed, whether they sell or are evicted, and if it’s not in their own houses it’s going to be at public expense. No way is that going to be allowed to happen.

So don’t hold your breath for cheap houses. I’m with @MintyMabel BTW: reports of the death of the economy are, in my opinion, exaggerated.

@iamthewombat 👍 Glad you understood what I was saying.

@20mum one of the biggest issues designers face are competing regulations. Fire exit doors must open out to the street, but doors can’t open on to a street they will block. Upper windows can’t open too far for safety, but must be able to open fully so they can be cleaned from inside. Fire doors in corridors, especially those going into a hotel room are the bane of our life, but again, competing regulations mean they have to be there. I will always ask client’s to consider auto doors but they are really expensive so they usually decide not to.

We’ve come a cropper with “sorry your daughter can’t sit there, it’s a fire hazard” but the only place they leave enough space for wheelchairs is in front of a fire exit. Last time they said she’d be a hazard, I politely said we’d be the first out the door in a fire so unless they want to take out half their tables, we’d be staying where we were.

I will always lobby a client to put a fire evacuation lift in. I tell the story of the power chair user at the Manchester Arena who had to wait four and a half hours to be rescued after the bomb had gone off and how would that feel for them. Few refuse after that. I had one designer had put the kid’s disabled changing room at the back of the ladies’ changing room. I asked how my husband would take my daughter to the room. That hadn’t occurred to them.

These things should be standard but are seen as gong above and beyond. I try to do my bit by educating people, it’s a nice wee added value service my company can offer.

I think some of you are missing the “ opportunity“ bit. Yes people go for the buzz of being out but there’s ways of doing it. Our local (s) are doing off sale draught beer, lager and wine. People have started taking that to the accessible areas outside ( not the garden). There’s roads, squares and pavements European style

Some places can’t do food but they can work with places that do.

Our local pub is a shop.Our local shop delivers, our delivery vans are doing garden centres and building supplies.

Our local (s) are doing off sale draught beer, lager and wine. People have started taking that to the accessible areas outside ( not the garden). There’s roads, squares and pavements European style. I’m guessing you don’t live in the U.K. - because that is currently forbidden but even if it was not the case drinking in town parks etc in the U.K. is not encouraged, it’s illegal in a lot of places. The pubs will struggle.

It’s bad enough going outside to smoke in weather...

Can we vote @Mintymabel for chair of an urgently established worldwide enforced accessibility panel ? In rich and poor countries alike, people with limited mobility are in hidden lifelong imprisonment without trial. The developed world has obscenely little accessible, affordable, or ecologically acceptable housing stock. My logical conclusion is that not one more building should have planning consent unless it meets all requirements of society, of planet, and of all potential future users. Built environment is too important to leave design and build decisions to whoever can shave a few extra pounds here or there.

Rigid thinking, and doing things the same old way merely because that is the way things have previously been done wasn't getting results, and never could. See child marriage, public hanging, Grenfell, Fred The Shred, paedophilic priests, and so on.. Covid 19 is forcing much rethinking and flexibility, but people in power still can't always 'get it', and yearn for the imagined good old days of 'normal'.

The general public and journalists share a misinformed unchallenged notion that everyone in the land must be in one of two groups: Those who qualify for a mortgage or else those who qualify for social housing. Possibly, post covid, the complacent assumption will be shaken as more and more people join the millions who must rent privately or live under the radar unofficially flat sharing or subletting. The unofficial's lack of proof of permanent address will give them a surprise. They can't register at a g.p. or vote. They are as credit worthy and readily trusted as any gun toting terrorist. If their flat sharer or sub landlord abuses them, they are non existent according to the domestic violence charities, since the domestic battering/rape/coercion was not carried out by a correctly defined assailant e.g. current or ex partner or immediate family member.

Covid 19 has drawn attention to the mysteriously unspeakable existence of old and/or disabled people, but nothing can tear away the peculiar belief of journalists and therefore the unthinking public, that everone in the country who is either old or disabled is sure to live in A Care Home, no doubt with roses round the door, devoted smiling kindly staff to attend their every requirement, and no doubt all paid for by the benevolent NHS/benevolent Local Council. Covid or no Covid, nothing, it seems, will force anyone to accept the elephants in the room. Pay the equivalent of an entire year's NHS budget just as 'furlough' to 'essential' workers who may be needed for something socially important such as selling alcohol to the imaginary swarms of airport passengers . Don't cancel Trident. Don't cancel HS2. Don't cancel the third runway. Don't cancel renovations of Westminster Palaces, despite Covid proof that desk jobs, including conference calls to m.p's, can be done without offices. But whatever happens, don't put a penny of public funds, nor an hour of redirected employment, towards helping old and disabled people and their families in their own homes.

@tabulahrasa has rightly pointed out the absence of provision for smokers, but I would add that they themselves can and must avoid two things they probably aren't
aware are a problem. First, congregating in doorways where potentially an asthmatic may need to pass. Second, discarding cigarette ends. It must seem trivial, but the harm is no less significant than leaving one's dog's mess, and the effort of making it a habit and a rule always to keep a poo bag when going out with a dog, is no different
to always making it a habit and rule to keep a small tin, to carry away the debris, when going out with a cigarette.

@20mum - too much on my plate for that, but I've an up and coming disability activist in DD, she's always got a rant ready whenever she is let down by the built environment, or ignorant people!

don't put a penny of public funds, nor an hour of redirected employment, towards helping old and disabled people and their families in their own homes.

Things are better than they were but still woefully inadequate. One other thing that would be lovely in a post covid era (although very unlikely) would be if people who have struggled to be stuck in their homes for a few weeks, worried about how to get shopping or how to pay the bills, would realise this is daily life for many people living with a disability. People spend years cooped up in their own homes because the built environment makes it impossible for them to go anywhere. Whether it be failures in their own homes or in the world outside, they can't get to where they want to go, to get food, or clothes, or even just to spend some time out. I'd hope the world starts to realise they are imposing a lockdown on people with disabilities for the want of spending a few extra ££.

The sad thing is, I know they won't. It's been 6 weeks and I've only ever seen this point raised one other time.

I wasn’t pointing out lack of provision for smokers... I was pointing out that when it’s cold, windy or raining it’s miserable being outside for even 5 minutes to smoke and that expecting people to do it to drink isn’t really a great business plan.