To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

OP if the virus was allowed to run riot the economy would fail anyway.
Few people would choose to fly.
Factories and offices would be overwhelmed by sickness and the resignation of the more cautious.
The NHS would collapse.
Families would lose loved ones on a huge scale.

Tbh the effects on the economy would be worse than lockdown and people would be scared to go out.

what good does it do you to dwell on impending apocalypse that might never happen. Do you think you sitting worrying about it is acheiving more than those who arent spending their whole time panicking?

@LilacTree of course not. My post was more a response to the OP’s righteous indignation that she may need to make some lifestyle changes because we apparently over valued people’s lives.

Okay so we are all aware that the economy is gonna suffer, looks like people are gonna have to downsize their houses and start living more cheaply. Doesn't seem that crazy tbh, the government isn't going to let children starve and will keep paying benefits, but yes people are going to lose their home and finding a job is going to be a struggle, that's just what life is right now, gotta accept it.

Also I'm sorry but how are you burning through £4k a month as a couple? Is it a big house with a large mortgage and two cars on finance plus debt repayments or something? You live in Central London? My household outgoings for two people is £1.2k a month for all bills and travel so £16k savings would be a year of not working for us so I feel like youre in a very fortunate position.

Oh also how is your friend who bought a lot of clothing stock struggling because of that? She can make aa digital store front on Etsy or depop and sell the stock she bought online and ship them herself.

@lazylinguist But are you ready to go out there and teach children face to face?
Many of my friends who are teachers saying no. Not until it's "absolutely safe". And they are "not childcare" anyway, so parents have to sort themselves out. They don't mind getting 100% wage though until it's "absolutely safe"

I don't understand what you want from this thread, OP.

Of course people are worried. You'd have to be a fucking idiot not to be deeply concerned about the effect that the global pandemic is going to have on the economy - both worldwide and locally.

But, what exactly do you want MNers to do? You say we're ignoring the question because we don't have an answer - well of course we don't have a bloody answer! No one does.

lazylinguist But are you ready to go out there and teach children face to face?

Yes. I'm pretty sure I've already had it. Dh and I are generally in good health. But, as you point out, dh is on full pay, and he is by far the main earner (SLT) . I'm not being paid, because I'm mostly a self-employed peripatetic teacher, but I don't fear for my job long-term. If schools re-open, our dc will go back to school and we will go back to work.

Agree with you, @NekoShiro. People will adapt.

Sadie, I miss read your post, I thought you said it would last 300 years.

Not panicking but recession forefront of my mind. I’m taking it one day at a time. However I am not sticking my head in the sand about the reality of recession. I lost my job as soon as lockdown, not eligible for furlough. I’m now on benefits which as a single person means that I can ‘survive’ not ‘live’ on using up my savings for a year. If unemployment is high, I’m asking myself, what then, when my savings have run out? There has to be balance. Part of that balance is considering the reality of recession.

Of course it will recover, although it might take a while. As will you. But dead is dead. No recovery from that

And then there’s Brexit....!!!!

Not all of us on furlough are ignorant of the economic risk. Some of us are very well aware that the company has furloughed us because it's struggling for cash in the current pandemic. And redundancy may well follow once the furlough scheme is over.

It took 10 yrs to recover from 08.

It's shit & as someone in their 30s this is going to affect me for a long time but what can you do?

I certainly hope the burden of paying for this all isn't just put on income tax payers.

I think older people who have mortgages paid off, 2nd homes, good pension probably aren't too concerned.

JaxHog, short but to the point statement. I 100% agree with that

I'd prefer death to homelessness. Fortunately you can't take that choice away from me.

“I'd prefer death to homelessness. Fortunately you can't take that choice away from me.”

But people dying won’t actually prevent homelessness...

People dying might cause more homelessness

A general collapse of the nhs might trigger wider destabilisation of the uk leading to even lower economic confidence and a deeper longer recession

I think tabula was going for spectacularly goady fuckery of the suicidal there, not asking a real question!

I hear you OP and I also understand why people can't think about it now.

But the fact is: Lockdown's only been a few weeks. and It needs to be a few more.

We will have to cope and so will the economy.

This is not health anxiety, economic nonchalance or being financially secure; it's wanting to do the best thing for the most people in an unprecedented situation.

(Combined with the understanding that just as more people have died because we waited too long to lockdown more people will die if we open up too soon, and choosing a few more weeks of lockdown over thousands of unnecessary deaths.)

Germany waited until their daily reported deaths were about 150. Ours are still 600+

There is a theory that the governments plan is repeated lockdowns over the next three years until most of us have either survived it or died. I really hope it's not true. It would be better to do this one properly then keep the infection level under some control with test trace and isolate. On every level. Including fit the economy.

“I think tabula was going for spectacularly goady fuckery of the suicidal there, not asking a real question!”

Not really...

It isn’t a choice between people dying and homelessness because of the economy failing.

There’s going to be a recession, lifting lockdown now, next week, in 6 weeks isn’t going to make everything go back to normal.

If your job isn’t possible without spreading Covid like mine, then you don’t have a job, if your industry isn’t profitable without spreading it then it’s no longer profitable.

Lifting restrictions isn’t going to make any difference to that.

So it isn’t a choice between letting people die and saving the economy.

There’s a recession coming, lifting restrictions sooner won’t stop it - it won’t make much difference to most people, other than making them redundant sooner.

I can’t see why lockdown needs to be longer - closing the schools and banning mass gatherings were the key peak reducing measures. No need to keep the rest in place.

There’s no point worrying about economic consequences, we’ll have to roll with the punches as they come.