To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

Emoji "Buying as much as they can as a reaction against not being able to spend money."

it's hardly "revenge" to spend money, even if you're lucky enough to have it - there are better ways to get revenge!

@Oblomov20 I think this is going to affect a lot of people. Businesses will close. I don't think people appreciate how bad it's going to be.

They don't. That's why they keep talking about going back to normal.

( I mean, the "in denial" can try - but the exponential death curve is going to kick in again fairly swiftly.)

Sadie789 what is the alternative? Cancel the pandemic?

Even if people are being overoptimistic it doesn't matter. Right now it's only affecting their morale and arguably optimism/confidence is what ends a recession.

So what YOU are doing is like shouting in a bank "oh my god they are going to run out of money"

what is the alternative? lift restrictions on those not in vulnerable groups

Im seeing things suggesting the economy hasnt actually slowed down that much, just sort of moved. Up to 40% more being bought from supermarkets, people doing loads of online shopping, streaming services, using phones, buying loads to keep kids entertained etc. and a lot of those who have saved money through this will go out and spend it at the end. Its not as complicated or sudden as 2008 at least, anyway.

How do we lift restrictions for the none vulnerable without having to increase the restrictions on the vulnerable?

Because the vulnerable ( not shielded) need to work, need to buy food, need to be able to exercise outdoors.

If the none vulnerable return to anything like normal, the rate of infection will go up and even those basic actions of the vulnerable no longer are safe. They will need to shield, without any of the current support that shielded people

I'm genuinely petrified...it's keeping me awake at night.

I think lockdown is a huge mistake.

As for hospitals, they can't be especially busy surely?

Nearly 30,000 covid deaths in the UK and over 1200 hospitals...you do the maths..bearing in mind not all the deaths are in hospital...yet hospitals are overrun? And hospital staff have time to line the corridors and clap for those being discharged and choreographing dance routines.

Purlease....this is not worth it.

We are screwed

“lift restrictions on those not in vulnerable groups”

To do what? If their job was profitable they’d already be doing it...

The news this morning had an article where the Bank of England said that this will be the worst recession but short lived and it will rebound to previous level by mid 2021

This is the bank of England’s historical and forecasted graph . The scaremongering does more damage to the economy as it stopes people spending

FroM the chancellor

There's a big fucking recession coming, the like of which we have never seen. We run a business - we have enough funds, we are still working and we have staff to pay - the lockdown makes doing business challenging. I am very worried about our community, we are not nonchalant...but we can do very little about it - we order a takeaway every week from independent businesses - better than nothing but not much! Lives will be ruined.

I didn’t make up the term ‘revenge spending’ that was how it was described on the programme. The shops were packed

to do what? If their job was profitable they’d already be doing it is that a joke? You don’t think profitable businesses are being run into the ground by being forced to close

Sadie is right...all the money spent paying peoples wages is debt and will have to be paid back with interest....

Thousands of small businesses will be gone forever and those will all have to find alternative employment as will their staff.

Anyone with a basic understanding of economics should have seen this coming from the beginning, it was not avoidable but it will be very,very serious.

to do what? If their job was profitable they’d already be doing it is

Ridiculous nonsensical statement

Because the vulnerable ( not shielded) need to work, need to buy food, need to be able to exercise outdoors so the masses suffer for the minority? That makes sense

Misses point: You spend 4 grand a month? Bloody hell I'm definitely in the wrong job. Must look for a new career once the recessions over.

“You don’t think profitable businesses are being run into the ground by being forced to close”

Not many no, nowhere near as many as will go under once they’re open because they can’t run make enough money with social distancing measures in place.

It worries me particularly the massive increase in people claiming Universal credit and high private rents in many areas meaning a couple with a couple of kids could be getting £1500 a month in UC. Multiply that by millions of claims ( there were 180,000 new claims over a couple of days just after lock down) and anyone can see there is going to be a huge problem if the current situation continues for long or indeed gets worse as companies fold and don't re-open, or when furlough ends. The bill is seriously going to be eye watering. It's ok people saying increased taxes will pay for it, except there will eb significantly less people paying taxes and we will be needing to pay significantly more for the NHS too. I don't think op is catastrophising, I think we all have reason to be very worried.

tabulahrasa so by your reasoning there were no
Profitable: nurseries, nars, restaurants, pubs, tour guide companies, theatre groups, soft play centres, fitness clubs.....???

I honestly think the recession (there is definitely going to be one) will be horrific but it will attack different people at different times, but it is coming for most. It's bit like the reaction to the pandemic, in February I was on holiday in the Canaries with all of my friends and were fully aware of the situation in China but not completely getting it.
Our offices closed in March, a lot of my colleagues hugged each other goodbye, went out on the Friday before lock down. A week later, we couldn't comprehend the difference and there were lots of 🤦‍♀️.

People on here are looking forward to shopping trips and holidays as soon as they are able, but my local food bank which took weekly donations, now take daily donations.
I live in a university town where there are disappearing high street shops, loads of foreign students, lots of food outlets that feed and employ these foreign students and finally sleeping bags in doorways everywhere.
That was before this shit show.
Also the next town along, where a certain famous playwright was born, they rely heavily on tourists - they are being affected.
And we can't even drown our sorrows in our ever decreasing pubs - unheard of!!!

“so by your reasoning there were no
Profitable: nurseries, nars, restaurants, pubs, tour guide companies, theatre groups, soft play centres, fitness clubs.....???”

No - by my reasoning there’s not many of those that will be profitable while social distancing measures have to be in place.

tabulahrasa well that’s not what you wrote- but to address your new point, I’m sure many would like to try, some income might help pay the rent and suppliers who can’t wait. In addition you are right there are some businesses that can’t social distance they still need to restart, we won’t all die tomorrow when they do.

I've only read your OP and I do to an extent agree with you. However, I think you are painting a rather black and white picture and making assumptions that are not necessarily logical. For example, needing to sell your house is not a given, there are mortgage holidays being provided, and while your current industry could be unstable there will be opportunities in others, you will be able to respond to the circumstances as they arise and make decisions about how to proceed.

I'm not dismissing your concerns, I think they are very valid and I share many of them. But at the current time is it helpful to consider the worst possible scenario? I hope you are able to have moments of calm and distance from what's going on and what you anticipate might happen in future. The birds are still singing and plants are growing. Thank goodness for Spring. I hope things work out for you and your DP.