To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

“I am absolutely stunned by the cavalier attitudes towards this.”

What do you want people to do?

There is one economic model which predicts that if the economy contracts more than 6.5% long term there will be more deaths from the resultant austerity than from coronavirus. The BoE currently predicts it will contract 13.5% this year. The question is whether it will be a short term v shaped dip or a longer term u shaped contraction. Most economists expect the latter.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000htrs

OP, I don't want to derail from the main thrust of your thread, however, just for reference, you can claim UC with £16,000 in savings. I think if you have over £6,000 in savings you will not qualify for housing allowance but will still qualify for the unemployment benefit part for both you and your partner.

It is worth knowing this as I sped through my savings a few years ago (which was actually my deposit) and only discovered afterwards I could have claimed something.

I don't think anyone's 'nonchalant' or 'cavalier' at all. The economic forecasts look grim and the recovery is likely to be slow. Businesses will go to the wall, unemployment will rise significantly, things will be very difficult for potentially quite a long time.

But the economy will, eventually, recover. And panic helps no one.

DH works in Financial analysis at global company and they were told yesterday that they foresee the recession lasting 2-3 years.

You should have titled your thread thus:

THE SUN MAY BE SHINING BUT I AM HERE TO PISS ON YOUR CHIPS. YOU’RE WELCOME!

What would be the right reaction in your point of view? Will any individual's reaction have an impact on the outcome of this crisis?

I like how it’s melodramatic to say the economy is fucked- which it is! - but not melodramatic to close down entire industries and countries for a virus that for the majority of the working population will have little to no effect.

@onlyfoolsnmothers

This.

I agree with everything you say, OP. My job is at risk too and I am very concerned.

But even if we hadn't gone into lockdown we would still have had a recession, because most other countries have spent time in lockdown and we are a global economy. Not much we can do about what other countries do.

But yes, in summary, it's shit.

And what on earth OP would you suggest we do to help this?

There is nothing.

Calm down. Panicking gets you nowhere

We have only been shut down 6 weeks it depends surely how long it goes on for
Our company has taken a hit but if they get business moving again we can recover
If the countries finances get that bad will be no good relying in UC there wont be any or will be cut

They don’t really care, OP. People have a reason for this kind of attitude- they have no worries about what their children’s lives will look in a month or two. What will they eat and where will they sleep. As long as they can stay safe in their isolation bubble. They would talk completely differently with no wage to come and with a risk their home will be repossessed soon

But what’s the point we can panic ourselves to death it will make no difference. We will deal with whatever is thrown at us. Also predicting a global recession is impossible. No one predicted this, things happen that are unpredictable. If you live your life you have to experience change.

I'm not really getting what your point is OP?

What would you have us do? Throw ourselves into the nearest body of deep water, en masse?

Calm down, dear.

If the whole world is in debt. Who will the world be in debt to?

Lots of us in secure public sector roles with mortgage free properties don’t need to be as worried. I’m sure it will still affect us in terms of pensions etc. but we know we’ll cope financially, so my main priority is staying alive.

Not sure why you are getting such a hard time. The financial prospect is terrifying. Those that aren't worried are those with money.

This from a previous poster, tells you all you need to know

We're in a better position than most as our house is owned outright, no debts, and a fair bit in savings. I'm only worried about the health risks of the pandemic on my family rather than the financial risks.

Oh, so you’re not actually worried about the recession... you’re blaming the lockdown for it...

Every single person you’ve mentioned in your OP would be in a similar position with or without the current restrictions - they’re not viable with social distancing in place. Or you let it run unfettered through the country and business have to close down anyway because most of their staff and customers are off sick for weeks at a time and that creates the same economic issues.

Sweden didn’t shut down, still heading for a recession...

@Branleuse That fries my brain too. If all countries suffer economic loss from the same event, where does the money go? Can we all just pick up where we left off?

I know we can't but I don't know enough about economics to understand it.

I bet it's fun in your house OP.
Do you want some misery with those fries?

I've seen a few posts on here that claim Conservative voters are hypocritical for supporting the NHS. I'd love to know how many of the people who are suddenly oh-so-concerned about the economy are usually Labour voters...

It is not the lockdown causing this, it is the virus causing this.

Seriously though what is the point of worrying about it? Its shit and it IS worrying but there is no point in actively worrying about it. We will just have to adapt and get on with it.