To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

You can't see why it needs t9 be longer?

It's because if we are to go forward without risking a second peak big enough to overwhelm the NHS then we need to be able to ensure that we can keep R below 1.

Part of that requires test track and trace to ensure that all carriers can be isolated before they pass it on,

That requires that the number of people you are testing, tracking and tracing is achievable. That requires that the number of infections in society need to be relatively low. Lower than they are now.

OP it is worrying. It's going to mean the end of a lot of businesses for sure. Not easy.

However, I think you may be more worried than most as you have clearly massively overstretched yourself financially. We have the same coming in per month as you over two full time salaries. One child and one expensive pet.

16k in savings would cover our outgoings for over a year, longer if we really cut back on shopping/fuel and one of us was at home so childcare/dog care costs reduced.

Have you taken on a huge mortgage or finance agreements? I think lots will be in that situation not being able to keep up with their lifestyle as they live on credit.

It's because if we are to go forward without risking a second peak big enough to overwhelm the NHS
Firstly the nhs is only not overrun because every other procedure and department has near on closed. Why it’s ok for people to die of things other than Covid I don’t know.
Secondly the virus isn’t disappearing anytime soon- better to get the second wave over with in summer than during winter/ the next flu season.
Thirdly there is no point keeping healthy young people inside- the vulnerable should be isolating absolutely, but everyone else needs to get on with things. If you think austerity was bad after 2008, see what hell we are in after this

Times are indeed worrying. Like many on here, I have lived through several recessions/ periods of instability.
A few things I tell myself... Yes, we are going to be paying for this for many years but we only finished paying for WW2 in 2006. There is always going to be something to pay for in every generation. We managed paying off WW2 albeit over 60 years & likewise we will manage paying this off. In all the years paying off WW2 opportunities & social mobility still existed.
Previous to 2008, recessions often led to repossessions and redundancy. This was less so in 2008 and especially long term unemployment not so much of a problem. Arguably, the negative from this period is a stagnation in wages which has become the norm. It is difficult to see how things are going to develop but I feel that each recession / event is unique.

16k in savings would cover our outgoings for over a year how smug and unhelpful. People haven’t necessarily overstretched themselves, no one expected such a situation to occur. I don’t live a flashy existence but it costs more that 16k a year.

I have to say I agree with you tabula. "Be careful what you wish for" kept popping into my head reading this thread. The sooner we get to the new normal the sooner a lot of people are going to lose their jobs/ the landlord's going to sell the place they live in from under them etc. I really struggle with the idea that you can "go back to normal" in the midst is an unprecedented global event.

Yes we are merely prolonging the second peak and we can’t do that until a vaccine appears - I can’t see the benefit when the main spread control measures are school closures, not flying, and no mass gatherings - that could stay in place with the other restrictions being lifted.

I can’t see fewer jobs being lost the longer a lock down continues

Would you like us all to commit suicide, for god sake stop catastrophizing. It will be hard but we will get through.

Tabula “ There’s a recession coming, lifting restrictions sooner won’t stop it - it won’t make much difference to most people, other than making them redundant sooner.”

No point arguing with stupid.

“Would you like us all to commit suicide, for god sake stop catastrophizing.”

I think that’s exactly what OP is trying to prevent. Many posters, apart from me, have been clear about our plans.

I mean as well as me....sorry, this state of mind doesn’t allow me to explain myself well.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

Genuine question: what does worrying about it achieve? Does worrying change the economy? All you can do is protect yourself as best you can. Work on a budget for if the SHTF and do what you can now to earn, make, find and put away as much money as you can to tide you over.

“ "Be careful what you wish for" kept popping into my head reading this thread. The sooner we get to the new normal the sooner a lot of people are going to lose their jobs/ the landlord's going to sell the place they live in from under them etc”

Yep... people are reacting as if the government spending on furloughing and business grants is being paid just to be nice.

It’s not about people’s individual jobs at all, they’re propping up businesses, because the harsh reality is that as soon as restrictions are lifted and it costs businesses money to keep people employed they just won’t be employed anymore.

Most businesses that are currently closed are closed because they can’t operate with social distancing measures and make a profit.

Neither businesses or the government are suddenly charitable organisations...

Secondly the virus isn’t disappearing anytime soon- better to get the second wave over with in summer than during winter/ the next flu season.

But if we get the third wave over with in summer, doesn’t that just mean we’ll get the third wave during the winter flu season.

RafaIsTheKingOfClay is there a third wave? We can’t stay locked down indefinitely

I think this is going to affect a lot of people. Businesses will close. I don't think people appreciate how bad it's going to be.

If there's another lockdown they will want it over the school summer holidays. Or is that the parent in me thinking that's a consideration?

Potterspotter I can’t see fewer jobs being lost the longer a lock down continues

Whether you're in an industry that just doesn't work in the time of corona or one that could maybe come up with work arounds then another three weeks won't make much difference will it?

But it will save a lot of lives

And it's another pay packet in hand for those about to lose their jobs.

Three more weeks of lockdown staves off the recession a little longer by postponing the death spiral of job losses leading to lower spending leading to businesses struggling leading to more job losses. Plus fewer widows.

With £16,000 in savings and UC you should easily last over a year, plenty of time to get new jobs. How are you burning through £4000 a month?
Maybe time to have a look at your lifestyles and make some savings.

Saw something about South Korea last night on TV. They are doing ‘revenge spending’
Buying as much as they can as a reaction against not being able to spend money.

I think the same will happen everywhere. South Korea’s economy seems to have recovered.

Every time R goes over 1 then exponential growth, nhs pressure and lockdown are highly likely

It depends on how well we keep R below 1 as to how many peaks we end up with

It is more likely that we will end up with a vaccine as a way out before we get to herd immunity via successive peaks

We have so far been unaffected financially but I have really reigned in spending & won't be spending as I did. Even when restrictions are lifted I'm not going to rush back to enclosed small spaces & big crowds.

Well the economy will recover. But it will take a hell of a long time and it will mean disaster for some, many in fact.

I know my job is on the line, I know it's days are numbered so I'm making plans for what I'll so when that happens as I know it will. I will do something else to earn money and that's how it will be for us.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-20/china-luxury-revenge-spending-surge-is-likely-to-fade

Bloomberg disagrees. It is just displacement from overseas spend and likely to fade.