Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

I find the maths quite calming. Especially here on a familiar ‘venue’

we can expect coronavirus to kill more 10-19 year olds this year than paediatric cancer.

My DD has been a paediatric oncology ward patient for 18 months or so, so in my world it feels like cancer is a very big issue for children.

Statistically it’s actually quite a tiny percentage of children overall, of course, but nonetheless, it’s the biggest killer of children aged 1-15.

And no one would downplay that fact, nor deny that every death is an absolute tragedy for the family.

Unlike childhood cancer, here we have a clear opportunity to get ahead of the virus, minimise cases and hopefully prevent deaths occurring.

It’s bewildering that this doesn’t seem to be a priority.

Sorry if it's already been done but if the deaths are 55, can anyone work out the actual numbers of infection with the % mortality rate? (sorry I suck at math)

3.5% ArthurMorgan. Same as most other countries I think. Although likely to be much lower as the number with it is likely to be far higher than known.

Following.

Though I am a bit frightened to do so. Thank you, Barracker et al.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths"
.....
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has been advising SAGE

It found from new data that mitigation would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over"

Revised modelling from new NHS data and Italy showed a mitigation strategy would surpass NHS emergency surge capacity by as much as eight times, leading to 250,000 deaths in Britain
.....
"We were expecting herd immunity to build.
We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that,"
said Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial (h/t @whippletom)

As a result, the report which its authors said had
"informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks"
said: "
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

A suppression strategy requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members",
and "may need to be supplemented by school and university closures"

An "intensive intervention package" will have "maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)",
the report said,
painting an extraordinary picture of what life could be like in the UK for the next year and a half.

I thought this was interesting. I've been loosely working on a (fairly accurate so far) model of deaths multiplying by 10 every 7 days. From this, either the rise in the Italian death count is beginning to slow or we are only log 39.2 = 1.6 weeks behind them now.

Interesting that we are only seeing the results of the new testing strategy kick in now, I think.

Lower numbers of test results in Monday, but the testing strategy should have been implemented on Friday. So looks like results are taking about 2 days to be returned, but that reporting then means we don't hear that until 3 days have passed.

Unless we speed up testing results, this seems like it is going to provide a challenging level of delay where cases are doubling in 3/4 days.

I will be interested to see how the public reacts to these changes as well and if they impact rate of change.

Thanks guys.

Thanks guys. I'm lurking on here and really appreciate the opinions and graphs etc!

It appears that there has been an average of a 30-35% increase in confirmed cases every day/two days. Based on the most recent update then, it looks like the increase in cases was at 26%- does that mean that we are flattening the curve?
I guess these confirmed cases may not have much point as they are not testing extensively.

Thanks for this.

Very sobering.

I find it interesting to compare the mortality rates between different countries, and am curious to know the reasons why some countries, such as Italy, have a death rate of around 7%, while Germany has a rate of well under 1%. Perhaps it is simply because Italy has a much higher proportion of elderly patients, but is it also due to the German healthcare system being much better equipped with ventilators etc than the Italian system?

I was thinking about the shortage of ventilators in the UK, and how this may cause the death rate to rise sharply, when critical patients cannot receive ventilation. Apparently the UK has around 5,000 but the govt is desperately trying to source more. I live in a town of 250,000 people, and looked at the website for the local general hospital, to see how many ICU beds it has. There are just 24 ICU beds, for a city of 250,000 people! So, even if just 10% of our city gets infected (25,000), and if only 1% of those need critical care, there will be 250 people needing a bed in an ICU which only has 24 beds. Also, those ICU patients need a high number of medics to care for them. Hopefully the govt will call in the army to lend its medical equipment and medics, and maybe they can set up temporary hospitals in hotels etc. I would hate to be working in the NHS right now, I think it is going to feel like a war zone soon.

I imagine the death rates are also affected by how much testing they’re doing. So Germany is maybe testing more and finding more, mild cases.
We’re prettying much recording only the hospital cases. So we’re under reporting the number of cases and our death rate will appear higher.

@Defenbaker your post made me check for my icu. 5 beds.

five!

What the fuck. 😔

@defenbaker I read an article about this the other day - will try to find it. But yes, there is a big link apparently between no. of ICU beds per 100,000 of the population and number of deaths. Germany has a very high number relatively. UK one of the worst in Europe at 6 per 100,000 of pop. Italy in between. The high italian death rate must have something to do with all the reports of overwhelmed health system and doctors having to chose who to give lifesaving treatment to. It's really scary. I don't know how our nhs staff will ever get over what's coming.

Barracker thanks for these. It drives me mad when some papers publish new articles but with out of date stats.

I know this isn't a daily chart but think it's good analysis.

In China the doctors asked people who were sick when the symptoms developed. The grey bars plot numbers based on that. The orange bars show the reported numbers. It shows the time lag between catching and reported numbers.

Roughly 12 days. So the chart will continue to go up a lot for at least 12 days until the results of the social isolation policy starts to be seen.
Then we will know if the less ridged uk approach has levelled off the contagion.

In terms of ICU beds the general view is to be 'safe' any country should run with only 60% occupancy of ICU beds. Even then an event like Covid would cause chaos.

Pre Covid 19 the UK was running at 90%. So we started in a very bad place. That's why flattening the curve is so essential

Following with interest.