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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

968 replies

Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

OP posts:

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 16/03/2020 19:32

I find the maths quite calming. Especially here on a familiar ‘venue’

we can expect coronavirus to kill more 10-19 year olds this year than paediatric cancer.

My DD has been a paediatric oncology ward patient for 18 months or so, so in my world it feels like cancer is a very big issue for children.

Statistically it’s actually quite a tiny percentage of children overall, of course, but nonetheless, it’s the biggest killer of children aged 1-15.

And no one would downplay that fact, nor deny that every death is an absolute tragedy for the family.

Unlike childhood cancer, here we have a clear opportunity to get ahead of the virus, minimise cases and hopefully prevent deaths occurring.

It’s bewildering that this doesn’t seem to be a priority.


ArthurMorgan · 16/03/2020 20:48

Sorry if it's already been done but if the deaths are 55, can anyone work out the actual numbers of infection with the % mortality rate? (sorry I suck at math)


titchy · 16/03/2020 21:06

3.5% ArthurMorgan. Same as most other countries I think. Although likely to be much lower as the number with it is likely to be far higher than known.


ScrimpshawTheSecond · 16/03/2020 23:10


Though I am a bit frightened to do so. Thank you, Barracker et al.


BigChocFrenzy · 16/03/2020 23:19

The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths"
The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has been advising SAGE

It found from new data that mitigation would "likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over"

Revised modelling from new NHS data and Italy showed a mitigation strategy would surpass NHS emergency surge capacity by as much as eight times, leading to 250,000 deaths in Britain
"We were expecting herd immunity to build.
We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that,"
said Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial (h/t @whippletom)

As a result, the report which its authors said had
"informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks"
said: "
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

A suppression strategy requires "a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members",
and "may need to be supplemented by school and university closures"

An "intensive intervention package" will have "maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)",
the report said,
painting an extraordinary picture of what life could be like in the UK for the next year and a half.


nellodee · 16/03/2020 23:26

I thought this was interesting. I've been loosely working on a (fairly accurate so far) model of deaths multiplying by 10 every 7 days. From this, either the rise in the Italian death count is beginning to slow or we are only log 39.2 = 1.6 weeks behind them now.

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

Barracker · 16/03/2020 23:35

They are slowing a bit, nellodee, because their early measures are kicking in

OP posts:

Nacreous · 17/03/2020 06:37

Interesting that we are only seeing the results of the new testing strategy kick in now, I think.

Lower numbers of test results in Monday, but the testing strategy should have been implemented on Friday. So looks like results are taking about 2 days to be returned, but that reporting then means we don't hear that until 3 days have passed.

Unless we speed up testing results, this seems like it is going to provide a challenging level of delay where cases are doubling in 3/4 days.

I will be interested to see how the public reacts to these changes as well and if they impact rate of change.


Barracker · 17/03/2020 18:47

MARCH 17th

Total UK cases: 1950
New UK cases:. 407
Total UK Deaths: 71
New UK Deaths: 16

OP posts:

TheQueef · 17/03/2020 18:50

Thanks guys. Gin


WaitingForSummerAgain · 17/03/2020 21:25

Thanks guys. I'm lurking on here and really appreciate the opinions and graphs etc!


Barracker · 17/03/2020 21:57

The graphs are always for the previous day. Worldometer seems to update them a day after the stats.
These graphs are for yesterday, Monday March 16th.

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
OP posts:

Barracker · 17/03/2020 22:05

Italy's deaths:
In the UK we are today now around where Italy was on Tuesday March 3rd, 14 days ago.
Their total on the next day, March 4th was 107 deaths.
Their total today, 14 days later, is 2,503.

Stay safe, everyone.

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
OP posts:

LilMissRe · 17/03/2020 22:09

It appears that there has been an average of a 30-35% increase in confirmed cases every day/two days. Based on the most recent update then, it looks like the increase in cases was at 26%- does that mean that we are flattening the curve?
I guess these confirmed cases may not have much point as they are not testing extensively.


LizzieSiddal · 17/03/2020 22:09

Thanks for this.

Very sobering.


Defenbaker · 17/03/2020 22:20

I find it interesting to compare the mortality rates between different countries, and am curious to know the reasons why some countries, such as Italy, have a death rate of around 7%, while Germany has a rate of well under 1%. Perhaps it is simply because Italy has a much higher proportion of elderly patients, but is it also due to the German healthcare system being much better equipped with ventilators etc than the Italian system?

I was thinking about the shortage of ventilators in the UK, and how this may cause the death rate to rise sharply, when critical patients cannot receive ventilation. Apparently the UK has around 5,000 but the govt is desperately trying to source more. I live in a town of 250,000 people, and looked at the website for the local general hospital, to see how many ICU beds it has. There are just 24 ICU beds, for a city of 250,000 people! So, even if just 10% of our city gets infected (25,000), and if only 1% of those need critical care, there will be 250 people needing a bed in an ICU which only has 24 beds. Also, those ICU patients need a high number of medics to care for them. Hopefully the govt will call in the army to lend its medical equipment and medics, and maybe they can set up temporary hospitals in hotels etc. I would hate to be working in the NHS right now, I think it is going to feel like a war zone soon.


Barracker · 17/03/2020 22:23

No, LilMissRe, unfortunately it doesn't mean that. I wish it were so. The cases simply reflect a change in testing strategy. We now only test critically ill hospitalised patients. This strategy changed at the end of last week, when all community testing was stopped.
There will be no flattening of the curve for a long time. I think it's important to be realistic. The measures the govt suggested only yesterday are still not as effective as the ones imposed by Italy some time back.
Add in the incubation time, and time for symptoms to worsen before hospital admission, and the cases in hospital were clearly infected quite some time ago.
The measures we are taking today may have some impact in the next few weeks, but until we adopt Italy's harder stance, the most likely outcome will be that we end up with a graph like theirs. Or, as I can't bear to imagine, worse.

OP posts:

GreyishDays · 17/03/2020 22:25

I imagine the death rates are also affected by how much testing they’re doing. So Germany is maybe testing more and finding more, mild cases.
We’re prettying much recording only the hospital cases. So we’re under reporting the number of cases and our death rate will appear higher.


danni0509 · 17/03/2020 23:51

@Defenbaker your post made me check for my icu. 5 beds.


What the fuck. 😔


Barracker · 18/03/2020 10:38

Yesterday's graphs: Tuesday March 17th

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
OP posts:

doneaflit · 18/03/2020 11:04

@defenbaker I read an article about this the other day - will try to find it. But yes, there is a big link apparently between no. of ICU beds per 100,000 of the population and number of deaths. Germany has a very high number relatively. UK one of the worst in Europe at 6 per 100,000 of pop. Italy in between. The high italian death rate must have something to do with all the reports of overwhelmed health system and doctors having to chose who to give lifesaving treatment to. It's really scary. I don't know how our nhs staff will ever get over what's coming.


Frownette · 18/03/2020 11:10

Barracker thanks for these. It drives me mad when some papers publish new articles but with out of date stats.


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 18/03/2020 11:23

I know this isn't a daily chart but think it's good analysis.

In China the doctors asked people who were sick when the symptoms developed. The grey bars plot numbers based on that. The orange bars show the reported numbers. It shows the time lag between catching and reported numbers.

Roughly 12 days. So the chart will continue to go up a lot for at least 12 days until the results of the social isolation policy starts to be seen.
Then we will know if the less ridged uk approach has levelled off the contagion.

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 18/03/2020 11:28

In terms of ICU beds the general view is to be 'safe' any country should run with only 60% occupancy of ICU beds. Even then an event like Covid would cause chaos.

Pre Covid 19 the UK was running at 90%. So we started in a very bad place. That's why flattening the curve is so essential


Ineverdidmind · 18/03/2020 12:27

Following with interest.

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